NHL Friday discussion

Satyr

Satyr

Paster of Muppets
Thanks McMug for posting my play for last night, even though Ottawa didn't do the job.
I was out all day, my friends came from another town so I came back too late. Ok let's discuss.

Biggest lean so far: Anaheim. Ok I know their road performances haven't been stellar, but they're the most in form side right now next to SJ. I treat Canes' and NYR runs a bit differently. The Ducks are the team to beat right now. The price is ludacris and would have been much closer to a PK had SJ lost to Minnesota in their last game, but they're still hanging even after the Oil snapped their 11 game winning streak.

I've seen a lot of Anaheim lately and they're starting to resemble the team that won the Cup last year if you ask me. Tightened up in the D, performing special units, these guys have it all. The experience, the youth, the killer instinct. Now that I mention it, so does SJ. But 1.69-2.35? Unless anyone cares to tell me why this price is this high. I know Pronger and Perry are out but they've been winning without them as well. SJ just doesn't seem to be in a winning spot here.



The Devils should take care of business here but not sure whether I'm going to lay 1.5.

Share your thoughts. :cheers:
 
I think I'm gonna lay the 1.5 against the Islanders, I don't think they're interested in winning, not from the games Ive seen lately anyway.
 
You're quite buddy, I was just looking at it and the Ducks are a play, sharks in a bit of a losing spot also.
 
Much to BetCrimes' chagrin ;), I think Buffalo should roll. They have to, and they only have 2 games this week. Toronto wont have its big guns.
 
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Washington - Atlanta is intriguing. The caps haven't done that well at all bouncing back from a shutout loss this season. But today they're in a must win unlike those other times.
 
not interested in the Washington game, definitely into Anaheim, still considering NJ. Glad we agree once again. :shake:
 
knee-jerk response is the over, the line is fishy though. Would have expected the plus money on the under side.

Ducks at 2.39 now. Wow. Do they know something we don't? Because if this is about Pronger...this still doesn't erase the fact it is a good spot for the Ducks to win, all things considering, SJ will regress before the regular season is over, they managed to cling on to wins against LA and MIN but had those two been losses I don't think this price would be this crazy.
 
catfood - dont see TOR keeping BUF to below the 4 goals they need to to guarantee an automatic victory. On the other hand, Buffy's next 2 opponents/3 games after TOR aren't going to be allowing them goals like recent opponents have - an 0-3 (poss even 0-4) season ending run coming right up

As for San Jose, my problem with liking the Ducks in this game comes down to this.

(1) Anaheim knows SJ is winning this division (SJ 5 pts ahead and with a game in hand, and with 4 games left vs PHX & LAK), so to me they dont have the intention of expending the energy they'd need to, to even attempt that task from here on out, which leads to...

(2) Anaheim is safe from teams 6th seeded and beyond - the only team they're worried about knocking them off 4th spot (& hence HIA through the 1st round) is Dallas, and they still have a 3 point lead over Dallas, which leads to...

(3) The Ducks schedule, after SJ...
@PHX - autowin - anybody see PHX last night? dead in the water now.
vs LAK - autowin
vs SJ
vs DAL
@LAK - autowin
vs PHX - autowin
...they have 8 points immediately because of automatic wins, and given their recent dominance over dallas, I'd say they'd at least get 1 point from that home fixture they have against them = (+ current 3 pts lead in standings) 12 points. Dallas has 7 games left: even if they won them all, thats 14 points. Dallas isnt winning all their games = Anaheim knows because of their present lead and coming schedule, they've got 4th place locked up essentially.


All this means to me, that Anaheim doesnt care about this game to the degree they'll expend the energy to win it. That in turn will set up SJ (as a result of a win & 2 pts) not needing to care about performing in the return game in Anaheim in a few days, which = 2 points for Anaheim. I'm not one to shy away from believing team managements won't do backhander deals behind closed doors, and so I wouldn't put it out of the realms of possibility (because ANA knows SJ has the division locked up) that a whispered deal for such a scenario hasn't already taken place ("we get 2 pts from our home game, then you can have your 2 pts from your home game").

added: in short, I think you'll see Anaheim perform from here on out when they really need to, which to me is home games, and road games vs bunny teams who suck. This game vs SJ is neither.
 
Those are of course GREAT points. Have nothing to add. But let's focus on SJ for a second. They have ended the biggest streak in franchise history against Edmonton, then beat LA and MIN after OT (and SO).


I have three remarks.

1) They could have lost both and the price here wouldn't be as chalky

2) SJ is still way better on the road (same as Anaheim is at home really)

3) crucial point: BC, would you expect SJ to regress following their mammoth streak? They are 5 points clear on top of Pacific with a game in hand over the Ducks. The Stars are dead as far as division title is concerned, sad but true. Why would SJ step up big time here? They have basically clinched division title, and the spot is just not good for them.


One more thing.

*Sharks are 2-6 in last 8 vs Pacific/Ducks are only 1-4 in last 5 v Pacific as well, so no edge there.
* Ducks are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in San Jose.
* Ducks are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Total 'ownage' would not be an overstatement.

So even though I agree with BC about the importance of the points he presented (thanks, as I wasn't aware of some of those things), I still think this could be a fade of the Sharks as well as a pro-Duck play. The Sharks still do not have the maturity of an elite team, even though I would think they will step up in the playoffs. Fading teams of huge winning streaks has been my number one moneymaker in the past years. I lost with Minny (I really liked that bet) but tend to think this price isn't accurate.
 
San Jose is essentially 18-19 at home, has a losing record. The Ducks are 17-21 on the road. The Ducks are the defending champs, playing against a team that is in a bad spot. I just can't make myself not play the Ducks here. Will lower the stakes though due to BC's points.
 
Satyr - the problem is for any front runner (as SJ is), is that their chief chaser isn't technically dead. They have 2 games vs SJ left, they win both it means they're 1 point out from 1st. So while the Ducks (as I'm sure they dont) have no sights set on winning their division, thats not how a front runner feels until they have truly locked up their goal. A win by SJ in this game essentially puts the matter beyond all doubt. So to me, this is a huge game for them, this is their division sealing game, if not in a mathematical sense, it would be in a psychological sense. I simply don't buy a lack of effort by SJ in this game, but i do from the Ducks (because they don't need it, and why waste energy on something you dont need when that energy can be better spent on the bunnies you're about to face).
 
interesting points. Have to look into this one more. Btw, I don't think Anaheim wouldn't want to make a statement here, even if they don't have their sight on winning the division...

Our disagreement does not lie in the fact that SJ would or would not want to play. I simply think they need to regress a bit following all that they have done. I mean this division winning thing wasn't even in the back of their minds prior to the 11 game winning streak. Whether that makes them more hungry to hang on to it, or just exhausted from the streak, I still have a tough time figuring out.

What I do like is the price. The Ducks are hardly going to lay down here. I would think they focus on their divisional opponent rather than the next day or whatever against Phoenix, a dead wood team.

Anyways, I still have to look at it, then decide whether I'm pulling the trigger.

Any other games attract your interest mr ABBA? :D
 
Satyr - whats the worst that can happen if you leave this game alone? if I'm right, then the game in Anaheim in a few days between these 2 is a must bet on the Ducks (as long as SJ hasn't gone winless between the 2 fixtures - they have PHX then DAL before the rematch). I'll definitely look seriously at the Ducks if thats how things pan out. And if Anaheim wins & I'm wrong, but then SJ beats both PHX & DAL before the rematch, I'd still take the attitude SJ "would no longer care" about that fixture.

To me you lose nothing by avoiding this game and waiting for the real *gimme* in a few days.

I hear your regression thoughts off the streak, but to me thats ameliorated by the stage of the season we are at. I think you'll see SJ fall over as soon as the division is locked up, not before. Then automatic fade will be the call, esp. with the LA Kings (Apr 1st & 3rd - SJ will not win both imo with the division title sealed).
 
Other thoughts - Rangers own Philly - see no reason why anyone would be the home team.

Minny/Van - ugly teams I dont like betting on really, so when they play each other, uggh.

One would imagine do or die game for Washington. Wouldnt bet against them, but dont like the fixture.

See no reason why anyone any longer would bet the Leafs minus Sundin
 
No interest in the Devils puckline?

Btw you're right, nothing bad will happen if I leave it alone, the worst thing that could happen is that Anaheim wins and I miss out on a winner, but it doesn't expose me for one bit in case the Sharks win, which is definitely an option.

GL
 
Satyr said:
No interest in the Devils puckline?

Btw you're right, nothing bad will happen if I leave it alone, the worst thing that could happen is that Anaheim wins and I miss out on a winner, but it doesn't expose me for one bit in case the Sharks win, which is definitely an option.

GL
Click to expand...

Ive changed my mind,Im not gonna play the NJ puckline after all. The Isles are in a winning spot and have a history of success against the devils, but more importantly, I just read that Nolan is giving the team disciplinary skating drills after the bad efforts given recently, so I dont think theyll lay down anymore. Plus NJ have Pitts on deck tomorrow. The price isnt worth the risk.
 
Buffalo and the rangers will be my only bets, only waiting on the buff-Tor line, probably will go reg and puckline on both.
 
Toronto and Ottawa are 3-3 this season. Think some of the heat has gone so I do not see a lookahead. For a long time Toronto simply could not win in Buffalo. They are 3-4 last 7. Not great but expecting them to win at this site is no longer a day dream.
The big guns for Toronto last 4 are Kubina 4 goals, Alexi 2 goals and White 2 goals. Last 20 on the road Toskala has given up 4 or more 3 times. The most recent was 13 road games ago. He has started 1 game against Buffalo and given up 1 goal.
Last 10 games Toronto has scored 10 power play goals and given up 9. Buffalo has given up 10 and scored 8. General arguments for Toronto are better current form where they are 6-4 last 10 and 4 straight away to Buffalo 4-6 last 10 at home and in general.
Lets not forget the last game for Buffalo. Tampa went with Ramo who is currently 1-6 on the road instead of Smith and were still leading 4-1 in the third period. If Smith had been in goal or Toskla I think a different result would have been very likely. I am going to look at the price,remember that revenge is a very strong motivator, check on Connolly and decide if I play Toronto. GL
 
A bet that I am very likely to make will be Toronto parlayed to the under. Toronto is not likely to win a high scoring game. Remember on their 3 trips to Buffalo this season they have lost in the overtime 4-3. Won 3-0 and lost 1-0. A low scoring game is what Toronto will do best in here.
 
Cant see Toronto beating Buffalo, without their size, they cant play their game effectively. Sabres are gonna kill em I think.
 
Been wrong many times. This could easily be another. Buffalo has scored 7 goals, 6 goals and 7 goals in their last 3 games and 6 of the goals in the last game were in the third period. The closest thing to that I see in their history were games 3, 4, and 5. They scored 7, 6, and 5 goals and then lost the next game to Columbus 3-0 at home.
 
I been wrong many times also but the comparison with Tampa Bay is a hard one to make in my opinion...Tampa is in a lofty position, they can afford to lose, and judging by the shots on net, they probably sat back and counterattacked. Toronto cant do this, Toronto has to take risks GL Tuck :shake:
 
Great discussion going guys, i've been so busy with the end of school semester and finals coming up, but here's what i've come up with so far,

NJ -1.5
Rangers ML and the Over
Minny ML and the Over

(Philly/boston is toast this year, the way i see it is, philly and boston will lose their 7/8 spots to one of these teams (buff, washington, Toronto, Florida...just gut feeling but buffalo/toronto/washington are my leans...take a look at the schedule for the laughs, they play boston two more times and buffalo 1 more after tonight...the beauty of the last few games in the nhl is that you play within your division, and what better for the leafs when you're chasing both buffalo and boston right?)
 
yep, you were right BC. :shake: saved me 5 or 6 units right there. :cheers:

great thread here fellas
 
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