NHL December Discussion Thread

C-MAN

C-MAN

Pretty much a regular
Not enough chatter in this forum for a daily thread so let's see if a monthly thread sparks any discussion. If nothing else, I needed a place to post my random thoughts when time permits.
 
Interesting game in Chicago tonight. Lots of good angles. Bad spot for Hawks with 2nd game back off long circus trip and then back on the road tomorrow looking for revenge against Nashville. Habs looking to avenge 5-0 home defeat to Hawks earlier this season, but Chi has been a house of horrors for Habs. Strong under trend when these teams meet; however both teams have been very good in the 3P. Looking to play 1P and/ 2P unders. Also, keep an eye on Chi SOG. They were outshot last game and tend to get a lot of shots next game following a game where they have been outshot. Need to look back further.
 
ana/minn is an interesting game. Minn has beat some good teams and then dropped to some bad teams. Anaheim has made me a lot of money this season. Hard for me to ever bet against the Hawks.
 
I rarely (almost never) bet against Minnesota at home. I'm just rolling with the Mon/Chi 1P and 2P unders.
 
Leans pit, dal, van, nah/chi un

quick thoughts: pit off a home loss, ott off an emotional loss

Mon looks tired - also like over here

van - miller has great history in Toronto, so does van winning 9 of last 10 overall vs tor

Rinne home on Saturday - both teams bring their A game today
 
Chicago running hot and last time they met, believe nashville gave them an ass kicking

blue jackets over, islanders over, leafs ml, blues ml for me so far
 
when good teams win it is scary how good they can be, but also how lucky they can be too...good teams aren't just good they also have some decent luck...gwg last night by Saad looked like a broken play from NHL 15 on my ps4
 
Love Saad. Near the top of my wish list of guys I would like to see play in Pittsburgh.
 
Leafs impressed - RC has them playing better at home.

Some easy wins last night besides Pit. They made it interesting against an average Ott team. In hindsight, I should have laid off them at the price with the depleted lineup. Looks like they had 9 centers, only 3 wingers so lots of guys playing out of position. Just happy it cashed. I will likely stay away from them until Fri night vs Cal.
 
Van looks enticing again as Miller should be motivated after being pulled and Van has only lost consecutive games once this season. Problem is Van has not been good in b2b games going 1-4 - BUT all of those games were with Lack in goal. Will look a little more but Van might get my $ again. Ott did play a spirited game yesterday and prob deserved to win. That is two tough losses in a row for them and 5 straight overall. Van good success against Ott 13-3 L16 overall and 6-1 L7 in Ott.
 
now that we are close to 1/3rd of the way through the season I think you can start seeing a bit more through looking at the statistics

[TABLE="width: 312"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]team[/TD]
[TD]Games[/TD]
[TD]PDO[/TD]
[TD]Corsi%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NSH[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]102.58[/TD]
[TD]53.53[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PIT[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]102.46[/TD]
[TD]50.72[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CGY[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]101.79[/TD]
[TD]44.02[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]L.A[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]101.65[/TD]
[TD]51.91[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TOR[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]101.35[/TD]
[TD]46.96[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]T.B[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]101.31[/TD]
[TD]53.93[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CHI[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]101.27[/TD]
[TD]55.07[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NYR[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]101.12[/TD]
[TD]49.69[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]N.J[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]100.61[/TD]
[TD]51.08[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BOS[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]100.59[/TD]
[TD]52.41[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ANA[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]100.55[/TD]
[TD]50.62[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DET[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]100.44[/TD]
[TD]52.78[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MTL[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]100.42[/TD]
[TD]50.35[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]OTT[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]100.33[/TD]
[TD]47.46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]STL[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]100.11[/TD]
[TD]50.86[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BUF[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]100.01[/TD]
[TD]37.15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]FLA[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]99.9[/TD]
[TD]51.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]COL[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]99.84[/TD]
[TD]44.78[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]WPG[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]99.75[/TD]
[TD]51.47[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NYI[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]99.74[/TD]
[TD]52.54[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PHI[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]99.48[/TD]
[TD]47.15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S.J[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]99.39[/TD]
[TD]52.27[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DAL[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]99.24[/TD]
[TD]49.35[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]WSH[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]98.97[/TD]
[TD]51.19[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]VAN[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]98.53[/TD]
[TD]51.15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MIN[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]98.22[/TD]
[TD]54.16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CBJ[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]97.99[/TD]
[TD]46.11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ARI[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]97.74[/TD]
[TD]48.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CAR[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]97.38[/TD]
[TD]51.62[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]EDM[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]96.78[/TD]
[TD]50.53[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
for those that don't know

PDO is shot% + save%

Corsi is the % of shots for you take

also the above are all 5v5 stats only

PDO generally can be predictive of future results when coupled with a good Corsi
 
to me the biggest outliers going forward is one to regress

Calgary, who stand out like a sore thumb, they are 17-9-2 right now while being the 2nd worst corsi team in the league, they have been outshot by 297 at 5on5 over 28 games, thats almost 11 shots a game, they have also won 6x when trailing after 2 periods, which is unsustainable when last two full seasons have had the league leaders at 9 and 10
 
Tonight may be a good time to start the Cal fade. Leafs stressing winning at home and having success there lately.

Also looking at Cbj. Phi finishing up long trip against a team on the upswing. Hartnell gets old mates at home too.
 
Looking to continue the Calgary fade tonight. I will also be in attendance, so a win/win if my 'guins can bring home a winner.
 
Any thoughts on the matinee games? Boston getting healthy and like the surge they made against the Hawks. Spread is high, but think they win. Looking at over in Philly. Scary with the way Canes have struggled to score lately, but these teams always seem to play high scoring games in Philly.
 
Like the BJ's a whole lot tonight. Pens shorthanded and Columbus in good form. Playoff revenge as well.
 
Tricky game in Chi today. Cal been fade material but Hawks on b2b and Cal with success @Chi last few trips. LA good history in Tor and off a loss, but Tor playing well, no thanks.

Best play looks like Rags TT over.
 
C-MAN said:
Tricky game in Chi today. Cal been fade material but Hawks on b2b and Cal with success @Chi last few trips. LA good history in Tor and off a loss, but Tor playing well, no thanks.

Best play looks like Rags TT over.
Click to expand...

BOL C Man
 
from the paper this morn
The NHL's mumps epidemic has spread to its top star, Sidney Crosby.

The Pittsburgh Penguins announced Crosby's diagnosis over the weekend and will be without the two-time MVP Monday night when they seek to continue their dominance of the visiting Tampa Bay Lightning.

Crosby missed Pittsburgh's last two games with illness and face-swelling that the team believed was related to a salivary gland injury Crosby sustained on Nov. 29. He is currently in isolation but should be through the infectious stage by Monday.

Crosby's illness is the latest in an outbreak of mumps cases across the NHL, with players from Anaheim, New Jersey, Minnesota and the New York Rangers among those affected. It is also the latest in a string of ailments for the Penguins, who entered Monday already without forwards Pascal Dupuis (blood clots), Beau Bennett (lower body) and Chris Kunitz (broken foot) and defenseman Olli Maatta (undisclosed injury).

"You sympathize with the players," Penguins general manager Jim Rutherford said. "They work hard to be ready to play and play a full season and then they run into injuries and in our case, we're going through a period here that is pretty rough.

"It's a period that builds character and if you can get through it, it's going to help you in the long run. But certainly it's hard."

The Penguins (19-6-4) have managed to stay atop the Eastern Conference despite their depleted roster. Without Crosby on Friday, Pittsburgh topped Calgary 3-1, then fell to Columbus 4-3 in a shootout on Saturday.

Matchups with the Lightning have done little to slow the Penguins in recent years. Pittsburgh has won nine straight in the series since a 4-1 loss on Nov. 17, 2011. Evgeni Malkin has been a key figure in that success, tallying 12 goals and nine assists during an eight-game point streak against Tampa Bay.

Blake Comeau has played well in Crosby's absence, scoring both Friday and Saturday. He ranks third on the team with 10 goals after he had five in 61 games with Columbus last season.

"With the injuries that we've had, guys have done a great job of coming up and playing minutes for us," Comeau said. "We're going to need guys to step up as the season goes on."

Tampa Bay (19-9-3) sits just one point behind Pittsburgh for the top spot in the East, but the Lightning too have endured a trying stretch lately. They fell 4-2 to Washington on Saturday, marking their third loss in four games.

Steven Stamkos notched his 17th assist and team-best 34th point in the loss. He ranks among the league leaders in scoring along with Crosby (35 points) and Malkin (36).

Stamkos, however, failed to find any success on the power play Saturday, a fact he took issue with following the game.

'We're trying to be too cute, I think,' Stamkos said of the Lightning power play, which went 0 for 4. 'We have to find a way to be better. I think that cost us at least some momentum in the game.'

Tampa Bay sits near the top of the NHL with 23 power-play goals, but has converted on just two of 19 opportunities over its last six games. The Lightning are 16-0-1 this season when they score on the man advantage.

Ben Bishop will likely start in net for Tampa Bay, looking to end a personal three-game losing streak during which he's posted a 3.44 goals-against average.

Marc-Andre Fleury, who is 7-1-2 with a 2.04 GAA in his last 10 starts, figures to get the nod for the Penguins. He's won six consecutive starts against the Lightning.
 
Monday

--The Chicago Blackhawks traded forward Jeremy Morin to the Columbus Blue Jackets for defenseman Tim Erixon.

Morin had 28 shots on goal and 15 penalty minutes in 15 games for the Blackhawks this season. He was a healthy scratch in the past 11 games.

Erixon has a goal and five assists in 19 games this season.

He was a late first-round draft pick of the


--The Blackhawks reassigned defenseman Klas Dahlbeck to the Rockford IceHogs of the American Hockey League.


--The Vancouver Canucks recalled forward Tom Sestito from a conditioning assignment with the Utica Comets of the American Hockey League.

Sestito, 27, has an assist in two games with the Canucks this season and three games with Utica.



--The Dallas Stars recalled goaltender Anders Lindback from the Texas Stars of the American Hockey League and reassigned goaltender Jussi Rynnas to Texas.



--The Edmonton Oilers recalled defenseman Brad Hunt from the Oklahoma City Barons of the American Hockey League.

Hunt, 26, has one goal in six games with the Oilers this season.

New Ottawa Senators head coach Dave Cameron will stay with the hot goaltender as Robin Lehner will get the start at the Buffalo Sabres Monday, Bruce Garrioch reports.

The Swede stopped 29 of 31 shots, picking up the 3-2 win over the Boston Bruins Saturday. Lehner has a record of 6-4-1, 2.76 goals against average and a .916 save percentage in 11 starts so far this season.

Sens are -140 road faves
 
Been tied up all week, but today is one of the best cards of the year IMO. Some quick thoughts:

Pens/Fla - I will be in attendance for this one, and I expect a tight competitive game. I like Fla and the under. Will also have Fla +1.5 in a couple parlays. Pens have been playing lower scoring games at home and should continue to lean on goaltending and defense until they get some of their guys back. I said before that coming off such a good November (think they were 10-4) I expect them to have a bit of a down month in Dec (around .500) and they are hovering right around there.

Cal/Van - have been fading Calgary since they started their road trip - they have now gone seven straight games without collecting a point. Van has been equally as bad lately, but I'm going to continue fading a Cal team who played way over their heads to start the season.

Ott/Mon - Ott is hot and scoring goals in bunches. Looking at the over and 3P over

More later.
 
Over is 4-0 L5 and 5-1 L6 in Montreal. Both teams are slow starters too. Paying -140 to get ov5 and taking the 3Pov as well.

Phi/Tor - Tor has more home wins than any team in hockey at this point. They have been red hot after the salute debacle and coach stressing winning at home. Phi a bad road team and no Mason. I will lay it here.

Also looking at Rags/Caps. Two hot teams against bad teams coming off wins. NJ and Car rarely win two in a row. A split here loses money though, so wanna dig deeper before pulling the trigger.
 
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