peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
A follower on the spreadsheet was super helpful and broke down all of the profitable and non profitable trends for moneypuck. See below for his summary on the full breakdown. Thank you, Argh!
Average odds for losing bets = +159 / for winning bets = +133. Average odds for away bets = +168 / home bets = +118. Both are valuable because Win% for Away bets is 43,25% (need 37,3% to break even) / for home bets is 50,21% (45,87 to break even)
Most valuable edges (comparing win% with average odds) are, in decreasing order, 6% (79 bets), 5% (100), 7% (69), 9% (35), 4% (94). Then, it goes negative above 9% (93 bets) and with 8% (52). I noticed that 3% edge (111 bets) has a 51,35% win% with +110 average odds (47,6% to break even) so it should make profit. 2% and 1% are clearly negative.
I think we don't need to avoid big dogs with 3% to 7% edges, even if it becomes risky over +150/+160 (general win% of theses odds, compared to the odds needed to break even, is more or less negative over +160). These odds contribute to global positive results for each edge and, of course, we find a lot of these odds on "big" edges. dog with 6% edge is a risk to lower the good resultats of this edge.
So to say, betting a +220 dog with 12% edge is clearly a wrong move and a sign that something's wrong with the prediction. Not betting a +220
3% edge= +566$. Far from 5, 6 and 7% edge, but as good as 4%. Betting only 3% to 7% would have make a profit of 5817$ (ROI 12,7%)
Sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...CF8XdrnuW1U1Mbaj6p9oHEJkk/edit#gid=1299796625
Average odds for losing bets = +159 / for winning bets = +133. Average odds for away bets = +168 / home bets = +118. Both are valuable because Win% for Away bets is 43,25% (need 37,3% to break even) / for home bets is 50,21% (45,87 to break even)
Most valuable edges (comparing win% with average odds) are, in decreasing order, 6% (79 bets), 5% (100), 7% (69), 9% (35), 4% (94). Then, it goes negative above 9% (93 bets) and with 8% (52). I noticed that 3% edge (111 bets) has a 51,35% win% with +110 average odds (47,6% to break even) so it should make profit. 2% and 1% are clearly negative.
I think we don't need to avoid big dogs with 3% to 7% edges, even if it becomes risky over +150/+160 (general win% of theses odds, compared to the odds needed to break even, is more or less negative over +160). These odds contribute to global positive results for each edge and, of course, we find a lot of these odds on "big" edges. dog with 6% edge is a risk to lower the good resultats of this edge.
So to say, betting a +220 dog with 12% edge is clearly a wrong move and a sign that something's wrong with the prediction. Not betting a +220
3% edge= +566$. Far from 5, 6 and 7% edge, but as good as 4%. Betting only 3% to 7% would have make a profit of 5817$ (ROI 12,7%)
Sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...CF8XdrnuW1U1Mbaj6p9oHEJkk/edit#gid=1299796625
