NFL WK#3

bones

bones

We Must Protect Our Democracy
Week 1: 5-4
Week 2: 4-1

Good week #2.

SeaHawks -4 (@-120) WIN

Bucs v ATL UNDER 45 :rofl: ( I meant under 45 in 1H) ​LOSE

Cowboys -1 WIN

Colts/Jags UNDER 45.5 ​LOSE

Broncos Team Total OVER 21.5 LOSE (that's what I get for purchasing insurance on shawks)

Browns Team Total OVER 20 WIN

Pitt/Panthers OVER 42 ​WIN

Jets -.5 1H ​LOSE


My thoughts are in discussion thread. Long/short, Seattle @ home in re-match of Super Bowl. Do you think that much has changed since their last game? I try not to speak in extremes, but IMO if Denver was not a public team the line would be 6-7.

In the span of a few minutes I took the UNDER in ATL and its no longer a lean. Falcons @ home, Bucs having hard time scoring and with what I see both teams, a 24-17 type game.

Current leans: Falcons -6.5 & Under 45, Cowboys -, Browns -, Cards -1; also looking @ SD +2.5 but they are west-east travel in early start.

Here's 'tip of the year': Watch Pro Football Forum and wait for "Jagr's Bombs"; when he post [seems like its usually close to game time] just tail him!


Futures: Chargers Over 8 wins
Props: 0-1
 
Last edited:
Added Cowboys -1.

A very similar game here for Dallas as they had on Sunday in Nashville. Really, if you have to go on road back-to-back, it could not be easier, closer or more convenient for the Cowboys; and the game plan prep is simplified. The line could/should only get worse on the favorite...grabbed a -1 now. [I very seldom bet Dallas and am worried that they are so heavily supported by the public $$ generally, and this week....but, this week I think there's a good reason]
 
Tito said:
i dont understand the -1 on the boys…makes me second guess my lean
Click to expand...

I think its 'public' $. Cowboys are still loved by the public, America's Team and all. Tito, I could be wrong and it will not be the first time, but J Garrett may have figured out that his RB can get carries and yards and that its run first, pass 2d and possession offense. I very very very seldom bet Boys, and last week I did take Titans' team total UNDER 26 for essentially same reasons I like Boys this week. Just think Rams no good and Boys can/should win the game. This may be poor reasoning, but I sure as hell would not take the Rams. I also put stock into Jump's comments in "what have we learned' thread.
Of course, I leaned Boys before line and Jump's comments so my 'selection bias' could be interfering with my judgment. We will see....good luck.:doink:

By the way, line opened at 'pick'
 
Appreciate you stopping in guys.

Adding:
Colts/Jags Under 45.5

This was a close call, but seems to me to make sense. Luck Colts will control clock/tempo. I think they will get into a comfortable lead and not be too pressured. Once they get lead, it will be ball control and clock will run. Score could be 30-13, 28-14 or a 24-17 event.

Open to criticism and comment if you think there are good reasons I am wrong about this or any other selection.
 
bones said:
Week 1: 5-4
Week 2: 4-1

Good week #2.

SeaHawks -4 (@-120)

Bucs v ATL UNDER 45

Cowboys -1

Colts/Jags UNDER 45.5


My thoughts are in discussion thread. Long/short, Seattle @ home in re-match of Super Bowl. Do you think that much has changed since their last game? I try not to speak in extremes, but IMO if Denver was not a public team the line would be 6-7.

In the span of a few minutes I took the UNDER in ATL and its no longer a lean. Falcons @ home, Bucs having hard time scoring and with what I see both teams, a 24-17 type game.

Current leans: Falcons -6.5 & Under 45, Cowboys -, Browns -, Cards -1; also looking @ SD +2.5 but they are west-east travel in early start.

Here's 'tip of the year': Watch Pro Football Forum and wait for "Jagr's Bombs"; when he post [seems like its usually close to game time] just tail him!


Futures: Chargers Over 8 wins
Props: 0-1
Click to expand...

Feedback from me is only what I think, not what I know. I dont like Seattle here at all. In the NFL its very hard for one winning team to beat another winning team repeatedly. Denver has done more good in the off season and Seattle has lost more than Denver gained. Home field there is great but teams that get over confident are vulnerable. IF Denver didnt have one of the best 3 quarterbacks in the league Id be on the side of Seattle, Bronco could blow them out and getting 5 here is really a gift imo.

Falcons can name the score here and they are healthy for the first time in 2 years. GL on the total.

For the Cowboys to ne a pk or -1 here indicates that they are being draw to because of exactly what you said, Americas favorite team, Dallas has lost so much in recent years that they are a high risk investment and I wouldn't bet them here as a 6pt dog. Again, imo.

GL on all plays. Hope they win for you.

bones said:
I think its 'public' $. Cowboys are still loved by the public, America's Team and all. Tito, I could be wrong and it will not be the first time, but J Garrett may have figured out that his RB can get carries and yards and that its run first, pass 2d and possession offense. I very very very seldom bet Boys, and last week I did take Titans' team total UNDER 26 for essentially same reasons I like Boys this week. Just think Rams no good and Boys can/should win the game. This may be poor reasoning, but I sure as hell would not take the Rams. I also put stock into Jump's comments in "what have we learned' thread.
Of course, I leaned Boys before line and Jump's comments so my 'selection bias' could be interfering with my judgment. We will see....good luck.:doink:

By the way, line opened at 'pick'
Click to expand...
 
bones said:
Thanks Genius, now I'm worried b/c always respect your thoughts:shake::prayer
Click to expand...

I dont mean to cause doubt. Let see if Seattle can win by 4 or 5 and no one looses. Im only on one side against you (Denver +5). The others I didn't play. GL on all.

:shake:
 
The Capping Genius said:
Feedback from me is only what I think, not what I know.

Falcons can name the score here and they are healthy for the first time in 2 years. GL on the total.

Again, imo.

GL on all plays. Hope they win for you.
Click to expand...

And this gentlemen, is why we call him "The Capping Genius" :bluehead:
 
I was all about Seattle in last year's SB and felt they'd win in the same fashion that they did. I don't get that same feeling this time around.

Seattle's offensive line is still a sketchy unit and bolstering of Denver's with the addition of Ware makes them that much more adept at rushing the passer. Denver's offense is clicking, per the usual and Seattle's defense took a beating against San Diego. I expect them to buckle down this weekend, but it's not in the same stride that they were last year when these teams met. I feel this game is close and more like what people expected from last years SB. I'm leaning to the Broncos side, but GL OP.
 
SerfCap: I sincerely appreciate the comments. Hell, after what I am reading its having me second guess. In fact, while I did not take Chargers last week, i thought they would win ( I have a Charger future bet for over 8 wins). Come back anytime please and give me thoughts. This week I am 'going down with the ship' on Seahawks.

But, i will almost certainly be on Broncos team total also...insurance & hopefully I win both:shake:
 
Like the Broncos a lot. ML is a gift as well. When is the next time we see P. Manning as a 5-6 point dog? Get em today
 
ADDED:

Broncos TT OVER 21.5

Browns TT OVER 20

I had a 'rule' last year that I took Broncos TT OVER if it was 31 or below, I don't keep records but as I recall their total was not at the number too many times but whenever it was they won. Regardless, this seems like good insurance on the SHawks wager and I am on it.

Browns: Come on baby, this should be very doable...I wanted to take Browns today, this seems the safer way to play it
 
bones said:
Appreciate you stopping in guys.

Adding:
Colts/Jags Under 45.5

This was a close call, but seems to me to make sense. Luck Colts will control clock/tempo. I think they will get into a comfortable lead and not be too pressured. Once they get lead, it will be ball control and clock will run. Score could be 30-13, 28-14 or a 24-17 event.

Open to criticism and comment if you think there are good reasons I am wrong about this or any other selection.
Click to expand...

This was one a loser today...sorry guys. When reading this and looking at game again, I realized that since this was my read, a Colts bet was in order. I placed it right at game time for a win. It will NOT go on my record, but:

Just sorry for my Under and failing to get the Colts posted. Dumb, and apologize for the under.:doink:
 
Thanks Tito, Genius, Steed, Gorgolon, Alex, Serfcap, Shark, D8, Clown, Hunt, Press & Teed and all for stopping by. All comments/visits appreciated

I am having 2d thoughts about tonite's over (going agst Jagr..never a good sign)

Best to All:shake:
 
MNF: Jets -.5 1H

That's my play...not completely comfortable. Just have that feeling and its consistent to what we have seen.

Lean: OVER 44 (might play small b/c its MNF and for fun)
 
This 1H bet is a loss early. I know when I'm beat

The Over lean and beer money wager looking good

4-4 this week ( I tell you what, my 'leans' kicked ass shudda bet all of them )
 
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