J
joebrensports
Guest
Coming off a rough day yesterday. I think overall I am 8-10 on the week in CFB, but just 5-10 with postings. I played alot of games yesterday, but I knew coming into this weekend it was going to be SUNDAY that would make/break the week as this is the best I card I have seen in 20 yrs. Onto the picks...
****AFC Conference GOY- BAL +2.5 ev- BAL is coming off two lackluster performances and have not been able to score. The biggest problem has been the QB position and turnovers. When your QB constantly fumbles the ball your team doesn't have much chance to win. The Ravens make a QB change for this game and will start Boller. One thing I have studied for a long time in the NFL is teams coming off 2 str excruciating games. These are games where you have to extend yourself, either with OT, put alot into a game just to make it close, or a game in which you come back from a large deficit. In the game that follows these 2 games the team doesn't have much left in the tank. This is the case with CLE who is off an OT victory aginst SEA 33-30 and PITT 31-28. CLE was killed in the stats LW something to the tune of 400-150 as it was special teams plays that kept it close. CLE's defense is not very good, so you get the better defensive unit as the home dog. BAL is 3-1 at home and CLE is 1-3 on the road with their only win @ STL. This line has swung 6.5 points towards the Browns from the last meeting. BAL wins this game today.
****NFC Conference GOY- SF +3 -105- This is about the best spot you can have a NFL team in. SF comes off an embarassing shutout loss on national TV 24-0. Now SF enters this contest as a 3 point dog against a team with a poorer defense. Not only that STL on the road on grass is the worst. STL who only won LW because they were off a bye and NO was in a letdown spot has no businesss coming into this game as chalk. Mike Nolan is 4-1 vs STL and has dominated this team at home. Look for SF to win the turnover battle and Frank Gore to have a HUGE game. SF wins this game today.
KC +14.5- If you take KC today you are getting a full 7.5 points of value from LY's playoff game not including the loss of RB-Johnson. Remember the key to LY's playoff game was KC not capitalizing on INDY's mistakes as once again it was DB- Law who was picking Manning's pocket once again. I like the KC pass defense as they are very good and Manning will be without many of his weapons today. KC should play within the number today.
NYJ +9.5- NYJ enters this contest off a bye and PITT has already lost to DEN and AZ on the road. This is a letdown spot for PITT. The key to this game is PITT poor special teams play and enters this game 26th in KO coverage and 23rd on punt coverage. Look for KO RET- Washington to have a big day. QB- Clemens should be able to move the ball today.
WASH +11 -105- WASH has flipped between wins and losses since week #3. WAS enters this game off a loss, while DAL enters this contest off 2 str road wins. This is a letdown game for DAL as they will get complacent from being back at home. Owens has not played very well in his career vs WAS only avg 38ypg. WAS should keep it inside the number.
HOU pK- HOU enters this game off a bye and gets their QB and WR back from inj. HOU is the better team, but NO has the name recognition from LY so HOU enters with 3 points of value and situational edge. HOU should be able to exploit the porous NO defensive backfield.
CAR +9.5 -105- HUGE value again as GB is in a letdown spot as they now have a nice 2 game lead in division and have DET on deck for Thanksgiving. HC Fox will play this game so conservative. Look for CAR to have 1 def TD to keep it close.
DET +2.5 +105- DET off a loss @ AZ. DET is a very good HT @ 4-0 and have already beaten a better def club in TB at home. DET is a smaller play than the 2 GOY's plays because of NYG passing ability and their entering this contest off a loss as well. Kitna has been sacked alot TY, as this is a concern as well. But the value is just too hard to pass up.
I may be back with more and will have the SNF later today.
GL
****AFC Conference GOY- BAL +2.5 ev- BAL is coming off two lackluster performances and have not been able to score. The biggest problem has been the QB position and turnovers. When your QB constantly fumbles the ball your team doesn't have much chance to win. The Ravens make a QB change for this game and will start Boller. One thing I have studied for a long time in the NFL is teams coming off 2 str excruciating games. These are games where you have to extend yourself, either with OT, put alot into a game just to make it close, or a game in which you come back from a large deficit. In the game that follows these 2 games the team doesn't have much left in the tank. This is the case with CLE who is off an OT victory aginst SEA 33-30 and PITT 31-28. CLE was killed in the stats LW something to the tune of 400-150 as it was special teams plays that kept it close. CLE's defense is not very good, so you get the better defensive unit as the home dog. BAL is 3-1 at home and CLE is 1-3 on the road with their only win @ STL. This line has swung 6.5 points towards the Browns from the last meeting. BAL wins this game today.
****NFC Conference GOY- SF +3 -105- This is about the best spot you can have a NFL team in. SF comes off an embarassing shutout loss on national TV 24-0. Now SF enters this contest as a 3 point dog against a team with a poorer defense. Not only that STL on the road on grass is the worst. STL who only won LW because they were off a bye and NO was in a letdown spot has no businesss coming into this game as chalk. Mike Nolan is 4-1 vs STL and has dominated this team at home. Look for SF to win the turnover battle and Frank Gore to have a HUGE game. SF wins this game today.
KC +14.5- If you take KC today you are getting a full 7.5 points of value from LY's playoff game not including the loss of RB-Johnson. Remember the key to LY's playoff game was KC not capitalizing on INDY's mistakes as once again it was DB- Law who was picking Manning's pocket once again. I like the KC pass defense as they are very good and Manning will be without many of his weapons today. KC should play within the number today.
NYJ +9.5- NYJ enters this contest off a bye and PITT has already lost to DEN and AZ on the road. This is a letdown spot for PITT. The key to this game is PITT poor special teams play and enters this game 26th in KO coverage and 23rd on punt coverage. Look for KO RET- Washington to have a big day. QB- Clemens should be able to move the ball today.
WASH +11 -105- WASH has flipped between wins and losses since week #3. WAS enters this game off a loss, while DAL enters this contest off 2 str road wins. This is a letdown game for DAL as they will get complacent from being back at home. Owens has not played very well in his career vs WAS only avg 38ypg. WAS should keep it inside the number.
HOU pK- HOU enters this game off a bye and gets their QB and WR back from inj. HOU is the better team, but NO has the name recognition from LY so HOU enters with 3 points of value and situational edge. HOU should be able to exploit the porous NO defensive backfield.
CAR +9.5 -105- HUGE value again as GB is in a letdown spot as they now have a nice 2 game lead in division and have DET on deck for Thanksgiving. HC Fox will play this game so conservative. Look for CAR to have 1 def TD to keep it close.
DET +2.5 +105- DET off a loss @ AZ. DET is a very good HT @ 4-0 and have already beaten a better def club in TB at home. DET is a smaller play than the 2 GOY's plays because of NYG passing ability and their entering this contest off a loss as well. Kitna has been sacked alot TY, as this is a concern as well. But the value is just too hard to pass up.
I may be back with more and will have the SNF later today.
GL
