NFL Wk 1

TreyDawg

TreyDawg

Pretty much a regular
Sides: 0-0
Totals: 0-0
ML: 0-0
Teaser: 0-0
Parlay: 0-0
Player Prop: 0-0
Player Prop Parlay: 0-0

Been a hot minute. Hope to bring a little something to the best capping board around, even if it's nothing but some good fades. 😂 Life long Skins fan (I'll have some thoughts there in another window) and happy to see some life back in DC. Life is busy as ever but gonna see if I can keep up with posting each week. Won't have the best lines or the best odds but it's all for a little fun anyways. If I post a total definitely go oppo and I for sure like the sucker parlays and teasers too. Let's mush it up!

Sides:
Giants +6 -112 (2.8/2.5)
Seahawks +2 -117 (2.34/2)
Texans +3 -103 (2.06/2)
Bills +1.5 -110 (2.2/2)
Panthers +4 -105 (2.1/2)
Bucs +1 -114 (2.28/2)

ML:
Giants +222 (1/2.22)
Packers -130 (2.6/2)
Texans +145 (1/1.45)
Bills +105 (1/1.05)

UDMLP:
Panthers/Raiders/Seahawks +1181 (.5/5.91)

MLP:
Broncos/Bucs/Bills +362 (.5/1.81)

Teasers:
6.5 pt - Seahawks +7.5/Broncos -2.5/Bucs +7.5/Bills +7.5 +110 (1/2.2)
6.5 pt - Bucs +7.5/Bills +7.5 -130 (1.3/1)
6.5 pt - Broncos -2.5/Seahawks +8.5 -130 (1.3/1)

Longshot:
Raiders ML/Giants +6/Bucs +1/Broncos ML/Seahawks +2/Bills +1 +3537 (.5/17.68)

Props:
Jayden Daniels 7+car/44+yds +103 (2/2.06)
Deebo Samuel anytime TD +200 (1/2)
Malik Nabers anytime TD +140 (1.5/2.1)
Malik Nabers 7rec/66+rec yds +131 (1/1.31)
Xavier Legette anytime TD +250 (1/2.5)
Brock Bowers anytime TD +190 (1/1.9)
Marvin Harrison Jr o69.5 rec yds +125 (1/1.25)
Baker Mayfield 2 Pass TD/o244 pass yds +139 (1/1.39)
Kyle Pitts anytime TD +280 (1/2.8)
Marvin Mims anytime TD +250 (1/2.5)

Leans:
Panthers +3.5/ML +170
Raiders +2.5/ML +115
NO/Az o43.5
TB -1

Parlays/Teasers
TBD ;)

Thoughts........

Steelers/Jets
Old man Rodgers vs Justin Fields. Yuk, no thanks

Dolphins/Colts
Couldn't find anything in this one with your money

Panthers/Jags
Not a TLaw believer and don't think Hunter is getting them over the top either. Panthers played better towards the end of last season but not sure if that's because they're getting better or because they caught teams laying down at the end. Do like Legette and think he might could make a little noise but not a huge Bryce Young fan. In the right spot the Panthers could be a nice dog this year. Gonna take a flyer on Legette to score, have a feeling he gets loose and Bryce targets him a bunch

Giants/Skins
I generally don't put a lot of stock into the historical this team vs that team stuff, however over the years the Giants have our number. I know before last year really doesn't matter because it's a different team but the Skins are 6-9-1 L10 against NY. Went 2-0 last year but was lucky in the 7 fg game IMO and before last year hadn't beaten NY since 2021. It's just a tough divisional game and this one won't be any different. The Giants Dline will wreck our Oline unfortunately, hence the Daniels rushing prop. Speaking of JD only had 3 games last year under 7 rush attempts, one in the last game of the year against Dallas where he didn't play the whole game and another was the 40-7 blowout against Carolina where he didn't play the whole way. So 1 time all year last year where he had less than 7 rush attempts and he'll be running Sunday. I'll take the swiss army knife to get a score as there will be a lot of ways Quinn can get Deebo the ball around the goal line, my guess will be a rushing TD. NY will move the ball on our defense even though it'll be Russ throwing it. Doesn't matter, he'll have a good day and Nabers gonna cook Lattimore. 29 targets in the 2 games for Nabers last season (10/127/1 & 9/59/0) so look for more of the same Sunday. He'll have a day and unfortunately I just have a gut feeling the Giants spoil opening day. Some regression due for my Skins this year but I love the direction we're going. And I hope I'm dead wrong on this one. I'll take a close Skins win and hit all but the NY ML in a perfect world. lol

Bengals/Browns
Everyone's heard how slow the Bengals start by now and at some point Burrow and co will come out the gates strong. I have no interest in laying 5 on the road to find out even though that offense could be hard to stop. Back Joe freaking Flacco? Uh, nah

Raiders/Pats
LV might be better than a lot of people think. At the very least maybe a little frisky from time to time. Bowers is a beast and I like some of the offseason moves, upgrades in a lot of places and while Pete is annoying to me he might be just what that organization needs right now. He knows how to win which is what LV needs. I like Vrabel in NE and Drake Maye has promise (plus he's my oldest sons favorite player, lol) but what weapons does he have to throw it to? And now Gonzalez is out on the other side of the ball. Think Bowers finds the endzone in this one and lean Raiders

Cardinals/Saints
All you need to know is I lean over 43.5. So the under is the lock of the year. ;) No interest laying 6.5 on the road even though the Saints look to be in the running for Arch. Other ways to play something here as I do think Kyler can move the ball here. McBride should get a lot of attention and I think Marvin Harrison Jr could take advantage this year. No reason for him not to, so Marvin o70 yds it is.

Bucs/Falcons
Lean Bucs on the side here and think Baker could have a big year. Falcons moving in the right direction and we'll see what Penix is able to do but I'd have to lean with the vet here. Also thinking over 47 so you know what to do there. I think both teams move the ball and will take another flyer on Pitts to find the endzone. Atl had 8 rec TDs in the two games with TB last year, Pitts had 2 in the 2nd game so there will be chances and I like the price.

Titans/Broncos
Hate big spreads, especially in the NFL so no interest in laying the 9. Denver seems to be a lot of the media's darlings this year but I'm not ready to hop on that bandwagon just yet. I do think Nix will throw a couple TDs so I'm taking a shot at one with Mims. His 3 highest games where he was targeted was the last 3 of the year (5,8,5) and he caught 4 TDs in the last 2 games and 6 TDs in his last 7 games.

Seahawks/9ers
Not liking the CMC news even though he says he feels good it kinda seems like he might not be a go this weekend? Even if he is I still like Seattle at home. That's a tough place to play even for a team that plays there every year. SF has an easy schedule this year but this isn't one of them. Like how the weapons for Seattle matchup and think they can give Darnold the time he needs.

Lions/Packers
I know it's coaching, but losing 2 coordinators has to have an impact. They will probably be ok but I'm thinking it'll take some time. GB should take a leap this year and I really like the offense, those young WRs are nice. Debating which one I'll play to score but I think the Packers are for real this year and they'll show it out the gate. Fireworks in Lambeau and think they might get to 30 this weekend.

Texans/Rams
The Houston pass rush is not exactly what Stafford wants to see week 1. He prolly playin the game a little in the pre season to stay fresh but I don't doubt his back could be bothering him a little. He a warrior though so he'll play through it but man I think he's gonna be under pressure all day and in trouble. Same could be said for CJ but at least he's mobile. Dlines gonna control this one and could be ugly and low scoring so I'll take the points.

Ravens/Bills
I'm surprised the Bills are a dog at home. Not sure they deserve to be a dog to anyone at home. + and Buffalo is all I needed to see here.


🍀 GL this week everyone 🍀
 
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Wow, incredible post here!

We appreciate ya getting back into the action at CTG Trey.

A lot of good stuff in here, I'll give some more thoughts tomorrow night..

Thx for the Washington insight!
 
Skins season thoughts…..

To start, love JD5 and what he’s brought to the franchise. As a life long Skins fan I was a kid the last time we were even decent (no we were not decent with RG3) back in the late 80s/early 90s. Man the days of Jack Kent Cooke, Coach Gibbs, the Hogs and the Posse were the best (Gary Clark was my favorite receiver back then) and I really didn’t think we’d be any good ever again in my lifetime. Dan Snyder destroyed a once proud franchise and I can’t tell you how happy I am to see him gone. What a piece of garbage.

Anywho, while Daniels has been exactly what we needed he’s only one person and there’s a whole lotta holes that needs patching. Can’t do it all overnight and last season was magical for sure. Problem is it’s not repeatable. The 7 FGs against the Giants, the Hail Mary against the Bears, the walk off against the Eagles, the 4th down success, and Peters nailing some veteran band aids. I’ll take things most likely not to happen again in 2025 for $1000 Alex, and you could actually almost fill up 2 full Jeopardy categories with that kind of stuff. As much fun as it was it’s just natural to regress on some of that this season.

Like some of the additions on O. Deebo will be fun to watch, Tunsil is an important piece and hopefully Conerly is a hit on the ends of the line. Have to give JD some protection and save his runs for when necessary. He seems like a smarter runner than RG3 which helps but it’s asking for disaster if he keeps running as much as he does. He can’t be the team leader in rushing long term, this a big focus next offseason. Lane could be a nice add and maybe Luke can breakout a little bit and help Terry/Deebo in the receiver room. Not a fan of the RB room at all but can’t solve it all in an offseason, like what Peters is doing here though. Overall the offense should be able to have some success, just hope DQ has some stuff up his sleeves for 4th down if he’s aggressive again this season. Dan Campbell ain’t got nothin on us. Joking obviously 😂

The defense is another story. Wish we would’ve kept Chinn, I liked what he brought to the table. We needs dawgs and he was one IMO. I’m not a Lattimore fan at all, maybe he was still injured after we picked him up. But it seemed like every time “big play to _____ down the sideline” it was Lattimore trailing, “flag on the play and it’s gonna be defensive pass interference” on you guessed it #23. Hope I’m wrong but I think he’s washed. Sainristil is nice and a great get, Amos looks good so far too. Luvu is my kinda dude and love his energy, hope BWags has another good season but Father Time might be tapping him on the shoulder. Line play will be important cause there’s like no pass rush and that’s gonna be the Achilles heel. I really hope we don’t rely on blitz to create pressure, that’s a recipe for disaster and where I think ultimately is our downfall. Not sure how we’re gonna pressure the other QB and get off the field.

Overall it’ll still be a good year compared to the shit show that was under Dan Snyder. 12-5 again, not likely. I hear a lot of the media picking them to make the playoffs again with some even picking them to win the division. That’s hard for me to see given the schedule, it’s a tough one. And always makes me nervous when the so called experts are high on my squad who haven’t been talked about in a positive way for like 30 yrs. It’s weird. Don’t think they have the horses on defense just yet and hoping to take a step or two there this offseason. I see something like 9-8 or 10-7 at best and just missing the playoffs, which I’d be ok with. Haven’t been above .500 back to back in a minute. lol
 
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TreyDawg said:
Skins season thoughts…..

To start, love JD5 and what he’s brought to the franchise. As a life long Skins fan I was a kid the last time we were even decent (no we were not decent with RG3) back in the late 80s/early 90s. Man the days of Jack Kent Cooke, Coach Gibbs, the Hogs and the Posse were the best (Gary Clark was my favorite receiver back then) and I really didn’t think we’d be any good ever again in my lifetime. Dan Snyder destroyed a once proud franchise and I can’t tell you how happy I am to see him gone. What a piece of garbage.

Anywho, while Daniels has been exactly what we needed he’s only one person and there’s a whole lotta holes that needs patching. Can’t do it all overnight and last season was magical for sure. Problem is it’s not repeatable. The 7 FGs against the Giants, the Hail Mary against the Bears, the walk off against the Eagles, the 4th down success, and Peters nailing some veteran band aids. I’ll take things most likely not to happen again in 2025 for $1000 Alex, and you could actually almost fill up 2 full Jeopardy categories with that kind of stuff. As much fun as it was it’s just natural to regress on some of that this season.

Like some of the additions on O. Deebo will be fun to watch, Tunsil is an important piece and hopefully Conerly is a hit on the ends of the line. Have to give JD some protection and save his runs for when necessary. He seems like a smarter runner than RG3 which helps but it’s asking for disaster if he keeps running as much as he does. He can’t be the team leader in rushing long term, this a big focus next offseason. Lane could be a nice add and maybe Luke can breakout a little bit and help Terry/Deebo in the receiver room. Not a fan of the RB room at all but can’t solve it all in an offseason, like what Peters is doing here though. Overall the offense should be able to have some success, just hope DQ has some stuff up his sleeves for 4th down if he’s aggressive again this season. Dan Campbell ain’t got nothin on us. Joking obviously 😂

The defense is another story. Wish we would’ve kept Chinn, I liked what he brought to the table. We needs dawgs and he was one IMO. I’m not a Lattimore fan at all, maybe he was still injured after we picked him up. But it seemed like every time “big play to _____ down the sideline” it was Lattimore trailing, “flag on the play and it’s gonna be defensive pass interference” on you guessed it #23. Hope I’m wrong but I think he’s washed. Sainristil is nice and a great get, Amos looks good so far too. Luvu is my kinda dude and love his energy, hope BWags has another good season but Father Time might be tapping him on the shoulder. Line play will be important cause there’s like no pass rush and that’s gonna be the Achilles heel. I really hope we don’t rely on blitz to create pressure, that’s a recipe for disaster and where I think ultimately is our downfall. Not sure how we’re gonna pressure the other QB and get off the field.

Overall it’ll still be a good year compared to the shit show that was under Dan Snyder. 12-5 again, not likely. I hear a lot of the media picking them to make the playoffs again with some even picking them to win the division. That’s hard for me to see given the schedule, it’s a tough one. And always makes me nervous when the so called experts are high on my squad who haven’t been talked about in a positive way for like 30 yrs. It’s weird. Don’t think they have the horses on defense just yet and hoping to take a step or two there this offseason. I see something like 9-8 or 10-7 at best and just missing the playoffs, which I’d be ok with. Haven’t been above .500 back to back in a minute. lol
Click to expand...
This is so good.

I appreciate the straight arrow look at the hometown team.

They are definitely moving in the right direction, no doubt. But, there are some things from last year that are not repeatable. The schedule is also a bit tougher. Playoff team? I'd say so, wildcard seems right.

You have one of my favorite college players of the past 15 years in the secondary. Mikey S is someone that every championship team in every sport has on their team. He's simply that special piece. He recovered from the rough first few weeks last year to have a helluva rookie year. The capping for me was his work here in Detroit in the playoffs!

Your best defense though is the offense. The Skins are good at controlling that clock! The Tampa game in the playoffs was such a good example.

Enjoy the season!
 
No reason to lay 5 with the Bengals. We need to see Joey B have a good start before laying bankroll on that team. I don't care the opponent!

Donks a darling but I believe the hype is somewhat warranted. Chargers and Denver can both win that division, imo.

They are in a few ML parlays for myself with college.

GL!
 
B.A.R. said:
No reason to lay 5 with the Bengals. We need to see Joey B have a good start before laying bankroll on that team. I don't care the opponent!

Donks a darling but I believe the hype is somewhat warranted. Chargers and Denver can both win that division, imo.

They are in a few ML parlays for myself with college.

GL!
Click to expand...
Zac Taylor is 1-11 in weeks 1 & 2 in his career. So yeah, gonna have to see one before he gets any love.

KC doesn’t look like the dominant team they’ve been for sure. If someone else is gonna win that division it may be this year
 
B.A.R. said:
This is so good.

I appreciate the straight arrow look at the hometown team.

They are definitely moving in the right direction, no doubt. But, there are some things from last year that are not repeatable. The schedule is also a bit tougher. Playoff team? I'd say so, wildcard seems right.

You have one of my favorite college players of the past 15 years in the secondary. Mikey S is someone that every championship team in every sport has on their team. He's simply that special piece. He recovered from the rough first few weeks last year to have a helluva rookie year. The capping for me was his work here in Detroit in the playoffs!

Your best defense though is the offense. The Skins are good at controlling that clock! The Tampa game in the playoffs was such a good example.

Enjoy the season!
Click to expand...
Mikey S is a dawg! Was a great pick and hope they can develop someone on the outside and keep him on the inside and lock down the slot.

I try and be a realist, especially with the Skins. Just hope they don’t try and use JDs legs to control the clock. We need a RB to carry that load.

We’re gonna see just how much magic last season was and how much of it is a real step forward as an organization. Hopefully it’s a big one
 
Adds:

Panthers +4 -105 (2.1/2)
Bucs +1 -114 (2.28/2)

UDMLP:
Panthers/Raiders/Seahawks +1181 (.5/5.91)

MLP:
Broncos/Bucs/Bills +362 (.5/1.81)

Teasers:
6.5 pt - Seahawks +7.5/Broncos -2.5/Bucs +7.5/Bills +7.5 +110 (1/2.2)
6.5 pt - Bucs +7.5/Bills +7.5 -130 (1.3/1)
6.5 pt - Broncos -2.5/Seahawks +8.5 -130 (1.3/1)

Longshot:
Raiders ML/Giants +6/Bucs +1/Broncos ML/Seahawks +2/Bills +1 +3537 (.5/17.68)
 
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