NFL Week Two (2)

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The Capping Genius

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NFL 6-8

Thursday Nightmare
N.Y. Jets +12 (1u) vs new England.
The Patriots opened at -13 and this number fell to 11 rapidly. It is now at 12 and that is a great number for the dog ( Like the Black Jack dealer with 12.). The problem with the Pats being favored by double digits at home, is that they have allowed almost every opponent in the second half of the season to score at least 20 points. Only the Kansas City high scool team scored 3 and the struggling Jets scored 16 in NY.

At home they were no bargain at all, by allowing an average of 23 pts per game which was worse than the 19 avg they allowed on the road. In the game last week at Buffalo, they rolled out over 400 yards on offense but struggled until late when they pulled out a narrow 23-21 win.
The Bills, managed little on offense by passing for 150 and 136 rushing. Buffalo also had one fumble recovery for a TD. One alarming note, is that the Pats were held to 6 points in the entire second half against a team that only had 15 first downs.
The Pats seem to have problems without the usual offensive starters on the field. They lost Welker to Denver and Gronkowski is not playing yet this season and doesn't appear to be playing Thursday.

The Jets are really a broken wheel right now with the unknown capicity of QB Geno Smith. The Jets defense did play well against Tampa by holding them to 12 first downs, 65yds rushing and only 185 yds passing. The Buc's arent in any way like Brady and the Pats offense, but they seem to be able to hold their own.
IF New England can't play defense, and the Pats can't put up more than 35 against the Jets, then the 12pt dog should get the cash. If Geno has more skills this week after his first start, this could be a good chance for a cover by NY.
 
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Sunday

Green Bay -7 (3u) vs Washington. '
Packers had good run defense lw in SF. Should be able to maintian that and have an easier time holding RG-III to less than what Kaepernick did lw.

Miami +3 (1u)vs Indy.
Colts run game was stopped lw and Dolphins seem to be improved at stopping it. Luck will find that the Phins have solid db's and this one could upset.

San Diego +7.5 (2u) vs Philly. Rivers can get down field against Philly. Eagles were struggling to stop RG III with bad knee . Rivers can run and throw on the run. Skins figured out the quick Phiily schemes and by half time the Eagles were much less effective only scoring one TD i 2nd half.

Minnesota +7 (1u) vs Chicago.
Bears were out played by Bengals most of the way and were lucky to get 3 turnovers that cost the Bengals a win. Vikings should get running game going today.

Arizona +3(3u) vs Detroit.
Old Carson Palmer still has some magic left and can hit Larry Fizgerald almost at will. Lions have oner of the best offenses and surely a very good defense who could keep Plalmer in check, but the Cardnals are still solid at home.

Houston -8 (2u) vs Tennessee.
Tennessee played their best game in a while in shutting down the once-mighty Steelers. Doing any resemblance of that today i Houston is unlikely. Schaub should have a typical day and score often. Tenn qb Locker only had 125 yds passing and will make mistakes trying to keep up with Houston scores.

Giants +4.5 (2u) vs Bronco's.
Little brother coming of a minus 6 turnovers at Dallas. Today will be different and they should be able to play toe-to-toe with each other.

may be back for late play.
 
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Monday

Benqals -6.5 (2u) vs Steelers.
Pittsburgh is no longer a division threat. Cincy should win the division if they don't have any costly injuries. The Steelers are in for a long season with game one injuries and loss of key players in the off season.
 
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Did you watch the Jets/Bucs game? The box score tells a much different story than the actual game tells you IMO. There were open receivers all game long for Freeman to connect with. He could not do so. Brady will not miss those same open receivers. The depleted receiving core for the Pats is an obvious concern but I'm confident that Brady can make due with what he has. There may be some openings in the second half for a backdoor cover but I just don't see Geno being able to score much on the Pats in his first road game. On a short week. Coming off an emotional win.

That being said I only bet the Pats first half so as long as that is a go I wish you luck.
 
Did you watch the Jets/Bucs game? The box score tells a much different story than the actual game tells you IMO. There were open receivers all game long for Freeman to connect with. He could not do so. Brady will not miss those same open receivers. The depleted receiving core for the Pats is an obvious concern but I'm confident that Brady can make due with what he has. There may be some openings in the second half for a backdoor cover but I just don't see Geno being able to score much on the Pats in his first road game. On a short week. Coming off an emotional win.

That being said I only bet the Pats first half so as long as that is a go I wish you luck.

I agree that Brady could likely do what you say, but these Pats aren't what they used to be. Coach Billy Ball hasn't showed his team can play defense in quite awhile and if the Pats take the Jets too lightly this is where upsets come from. The first three opponents on the Pats schedule are Buffalo, Jets and Tampa. Not a lot of intensity to get ready for those three. But as you said there may be openings for a back door cover and that's all i'm looking for.
I think you are on the right side for a first half bet, and you could still play a second half as well. The only spot here for dog money is in the final outcome.
GL on your plays this week.
Thanks for posting your opinion
 
I should know this as a Pats fan but I'd love to see when the last time was they covered a DD spread. They play up or down to their opponents. I almost shit when I saw how high this number was. Brady will be relying heavily on a rookie WR & Edelman. Sudfield didn't show me shit last weekend & now they are less a RB also. Not a chance in hell they cover this IMO & not gonna overthink it. Just not sure I can bring myself to back the fucking Jets.
 
I should know this as a Pats fan but I'd love to see when the last time was they covered a DD spread. They play up or down to their opponents. I almost shit when I saw how high this number was. Brady will be relying heavily on a rookie WR & Edelman. Sudfield didn't show me shit last weekend & now they are less a RB also. Not a chance in hell they cover this IMO & not gonna overthink it. Just not sure I can bring myself to back the fucking Jets.

Great points Zeke. The best part is the mind-set, that its really hard to back a pathetic Jets team. I gues they knew that when they posted the high number?
 
I meant more so as a Pats fan I can't back the Jets. I was just chatting with a co-worker & we both agreed we'll be happy to just see them win.
 
like the 1st half under 21.5 and the jets tt under 14.5
The only real concern is Geno getting out the pocket and running. Also think Rex wants to slow it down,, keeping out of Brady's hands for as long as he can,,,however wouldn't be surprised if Brady has some time, he throws very deep (which he is not good at) to his rookie wr's that have speed...my .02

Jets offensive line besides Mangold, are average and the jets O is below avg.
 
like the 1st half under 21.5 and the jets tt under 14.5
The only real concern is Geno getting out the pocket and running. Also think Rex wants to slow it down,, keeping out of Brady's hands for as long as he can,,,however wouldn't be surprised if Brady has some time, he throws very deep (which he is not good at) to his rookie wr's that have speed...my .02

Jets offensive line besides Mangold, are average and the jets O is below avg.

GL on your totals plays
 
Nice hit. We both ended up cashing. It certainly appears the rookie WRs on the Pats are not ready for prime time. I must have seen at least 6-7 drops and several bad routes between Dobson and Thompkins. Pretty ugly game. Congrats.
 
Nice hit on the Jets.....but really on the Steelers? They do still have Big Ben bro, and he just finds ways to win games, and I am not a Dalton believer. Don't believe the Cinci "HBO" hype until they prove it to you.
 
Nice hit on the Jets.....but really on the Steelers? They do still have Big Ben bro, and he just finds ways to win games, and I am not a Dalton believer. Don't believe the Cinci "HBO" hype until they prove it to you.

Points well taken, but don't be slow to recognize teams going up and teams going down like the odds makers.

GL today egg.
 
Sunday

Green Bay -7 (3u) vs Washington. '
Packers had good run defense lw in SF. Should be able to maintian that and have an easier time holding RG-III to less than what Kaepernick did lw.

Miami +3 (1u)vs Indy.
Colts run game was stopped lw and Dolphins seem to be improved at stopping it. Luck will find that the Phins have solid db's and this one could upset.

San Diego +7.5 (2u) vs Philly. Rivers can get down field against Philly. Eagles were struggling to stop RG III with bad knee . Rivers can run and throw on the run. Skins figured out the quick Phiily schemes and by half time the Eagles were much less effective only scoring one TD i 2nd half.

Minnesota +7 (1u) vs Chicago.
Bears were out played by Bengals most of the way and were lucky to get 3 turnovers that cost the Bengals a win. Vikings should get running game going today.

Arizona +3(3u) vs Detroit.
Old Carson Palmer still has some magic left and can hit Larry Fizgerald almost at will. Lions have oner of the best offenses and surely a very good defense who could keep Plalmer in check, but the Cardnals are still solid at home.

Houston -8 (2u) vs Tennessee.
Tennessee played their best game in a while in shutting down the once-mighty Steelers. Doing any resemblance of that today i Houston is unlikely. Schaub should have a typical day and score often. Tenn qb Locker only had 125 yds passing and will make mistakes trying to keep up with Houston scores.

Giants +4.5 (2u) vs Bronco's.
Little brother coming of a minus 6 turnovers at Dallas. Today will be different and they should be able to play toe-to-toe with each other.

may be back for late play.

congrats on early games!
 
Nice hit. We both ended up cashing. It certainly appears the rookie WRs on the Pats are not ready for prime time. I must have seen at least 6-7 drops and several bad routes between Dobson and Thompkins. Pretty ugly game. Congrats.

nice call!

capping bol

congrats on early games!

capping nice hit my brother

Thanks guys.


Seattle-3 (1u) vs San Fran
Im on the Seahawks for this one. Niners were shut down at home on the ground and I think Seahawks will be strong enough on defense to keep this one in check. Last weeks poor game in Carolina can't be used as a guide to this one tonight Hope to finish the day with a win.
SB loser on the road should end up like the super bowl winner did last week on the road...

GL
 
Well done man. Had Cincinnati myself last night, little worried when I went to bed at halftime but it all panned out. Keep up the good work!
 
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