Throwback420
Diehard L.A. fan
Ok big week this week some nice rival games (ne vs indy , pitt vs Ravens , Dal vs Philly and GB vs KC) I really like this week got some nice dogs and lines this week. Last week was great so I hope to continue a little run especially on the primetime games. On MNF im 7-2 with 3 dogs winning SU hope to continue that. Did not post any write ups last week will post some later in the week for sure... ( since i put my plays in late i added how many units i like the game for, these are still leans remember anything can change as the week goes but It hardly ever does)
NFL Week 9:
Green Bay +2 and or ML @ Arrowhead - (2 units or more play) Ok 1st off looking at this game it looks as if it might be a trap game. Everyone seen how Favre won that dramatic MNF game now they are 2 pt dogs. Chiefs are coming off a bye atop the Afc west and b4 that won a defensive struggle at Oakland. Arrowhead is one of the hardest places to play in the NFL but the packers are 3-0 on the road so that should'nt be much of a problem.
Ok on matchups. I dont really think the chiefs offense matche's up with Green Bay's defense. I really see them struggling in this game to put up pt's. It all start's with Larry Johnson he hasnt done to well this year. he has over 100 yds his last game but If it wasn't for a 58 yd run he would have only had 40 some yards. The reason why he can't run is because the Chiefs soft O-Line and it doesnt help playing a tough pack defense. They have a strong front seven and should match up well with the chiefs running game. The cheifs only avg 82 yds rusing and the packers only give up 98 so it could be a long day for LJ. On the GB secondary besides Bigby they are solid and like to play man. Rookie Wr Bowe will have a tough game with Woodson and Harris. One thing I dont like is the TE matchup. Denver te's were making plays on MNF against the packers and the bears te's made plays all game on them also. now they have to face HOF TE Tony Gonzales. I expect the packers to pay extra attention on that matchup because he seems like the only threat that matches up well against this defense. Packers have a great pass rush and Kampman is coming off a 3 sack game so he should be able to get pressure on Huard and force a mistake or 2. I give the packers the edge on this side of the ball and I think the Chiefs are really gonna struggle to put up pts.
On the other side of the ball. I really like how rookie rb Grant stepped up his last game and added something new to the GB offense. The packers will have a tough test against an underated defense. It all starts with Jared Allen. The packers do pass alot but only have gave up 12 sacks so I think the o-line can hold the Cheifs pass eush which starts with Allen and Hali. It may be tough to run on this defense so the Packers will have to rely on Favre which isnt nothing new and I think he can beat this secondary. Carson palmer got 320 and 2 td but threw picks. If the o-line holds and Favre manages the game well and dont make mistakes they should be able to put up some pts in the AIr.I dont really think the Cheifs corners(law and Surtain) can keep up with the speed of the packers wr's. I think this game will start close and the Packers will pull away late because the Chiefs offense will have trouble keeping up. Packers pull away late for what should be an easy win...
Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog
Az Cards +3.5 and or ML @ Tampa - (1-2 unit play) This one has the look of one of those hard hitting defensive struggles. Bucs coming off a 1 pt loss at home and Cards coming off a bye but b4 that loss a game to the skins where they tried to rally late for ot but failed on a 2 pt conversion...
First off Cards coming off a much needed bye they have alot of banged up players and I think that bye week will do good for them and will show on the field. On matchups first the Bucs defense is solid but a bit over rated imo. they do well against the pass(173 ypg), although I do think you can get to cb Buchanon, they somewhat struggle against the run (124 ypg), that should bold well for an offense that likea to pound edge james and control the clock then hit you with some big plays to their big time wideouts. I think Boldin and Fitz can have a field day against this secondary if Edge struggles, but It's all on how Warner is. Overall i think the Cards have advantage on this side of the ball.
On defense the Cards must pressure Garcia the cards defense has 17 sacks on the year so they have the players to do it. although Grahm has looked good at times the bucs still struggle to run. Bennet helped a little and got a td last week but I still think there is to much pressure on Garcia with no run game and it showed last week. Garcia had no int's all year and last week he threw 3. It looked as if he was trying to much and just trying to make something happen. The cards dont cause much turnover's (6 int's 6 fumble recoveries) but they are still a stellar defense and I think they have the talent to shut down the running game and the Bucs major threat wideout J.Galloway. I see this game a little similar to last week and I think Garcia will struggle again trying to much against a stout defense. Im going with the better offense in this one I think cards win a close game late...
Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog
Titans -4 vs Panthers - (1-2 unit play) Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss
Jville Jags +3.5 and or ML @ Nawlins - (1-2 unit play) - Ok first off what the Jags showed last week was heart they are not gonna let injuries dictate their season. They could have easily layed down last week on the road vs the bucs but they fought for 60 min's and pulled out the W. Thats all you can ask for as an underdog on the road. Its a big reason why im backing the jags again. The saints are also coming off a nice win against the 9ers and are trying to turn their season around but it wont be easy this week Jags are no 9ers.
Ok on matchups on offense the big question of course is QB Gray. He didnt do much last week as he got the start. One thing he didnt do was throw Int's which is big. seeing the Jags want to pound the ball with their 2 rb's and stud fb all Gray has to do is manage the game and dont turn the ball over. When need be he will have to pass to make a big play and he showed he can do that last week when he hit Jones for the go ahead td. The saints defense has not been that good all year but they have been good on the saints 3 game winning streak. So the Jags must be on their game. Saints only give up 98 yds on the run but Its mostly because teams were passing on them. I still think the Taylor/Jones duo can pound this defense and not force to much on Gray. I think the Jags will put up pts but the bigger match is on the other side of the ball
On defense one major thing to note is DT Stroud is being hit with a 4 game suspension , dont know how it will affect him or his teamates. The jags got Grady Jackson form free agency. The main thing the defense will have to worry about is Drew Brees he's coming off his best game of the year with over 300 yds and 4 td's against an upincoming defense, so the Jags have their hands full, but come in with the 4th ranked defense and also cause havoc which can slow down Bree's. The jags have 8 Int's 19 sacks and 8 fumble recoveries on the year so they have the players and talent to cause turnovers and shut down this offense. Bush has been running hard but I dont think he will be much a factor in the run game in this matchup. I see this game staying close because of the Jags defense and the winner winning by a FG...
Jaguars are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog
Jacksonville looks for its fifth straight win over an NFC team, while the Saints will try to avoid a sixth consecutive defeat to an AFC club
Lions -2.5 vs The Broncos - (2 units or more) Lions are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall
Minny +7.5 and ML vs The Boltz - (1-2 unit play) Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0
Dawg Pawnd -1.5 vs The Seahawks -(2-3 unit play) Ok after watching this offense close the last couple of weeks Imo they are the real deal. They have 2-3 nice rb's and a vet in Jamal. Braylon and K2 have been playing great they are 4th in the leauge at scoring for a reason. They are coming off a 7 pt win on the road against the winless rams. You got the feeling last week when they were down 14-0 the browns offense was never out of it and it was true they rallied to take a 17-14 lead . The Seahawks are coming off a bye the week before they beat the same winless rams easily at home.
Ok on matchups first off with brown on offense they have a tough matchups the Hawks have 23 sacks on the yeat 8 int's and 15 fumble recoveries so the Browns o-line and Qb Anderson must be on top of their game. I think Braylon and K2 really matchup against this defense and Andersona and the Browns will challenge them early. I think all the numbers can favor the seahawks offense especially that the Browns run defense has been soft and the Hawks like the run the Ball with Alexander but one thing I noticed is when the Browns are at Home (3-1) they like to jump out and score early and the big thing is they feed off the crazy fans and energy and having high energy players like Braylon, K2 and Anderson helps. I expect the Browns to do the same in this game come out firing early get the lead, take away the run game from the hawks and just Tee off on Matt H. I think Browns win a high scoring game by a TD...
Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0
The Manning's +5.5 and ML vs The Brady's - (5 units or more) Dont really need to say much on this game everyone has their opinion on why they think either team will win or cover or whatnot. I just think its kind of ridiculous to have to the defending champs at home underdogs by close to a TD and over +200 on the ML. I dont care who the Pats beat or by how much. I see alot of value on the Colts I think they come out and show the Nation why they won the superbowl last year.
head to head meeting trend- Underdog is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
Cowboys -3 @ Philly - (3-5 unit play) T.O, Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC
The Ravens +9 and ML @ Blitzburgh - (2-4 unit play)
* on skins vs jets, I lean skins but I think Clemens is gonna really help the offense but the jets have bigger problems on defense. I think this game will be close if the line keep going up for the Jets I will take them even tho they have burned me the last 2 weeks.
* on the raider game may just put 1 unit just for action. I would rather play the raiders when they are dogs. The defense took a big hit with Kelly (de) going on IR he was the best d-line the raiders had so far this year. this game is nothing to bet big imo. I have a feeling Kiffin will start McCown if healthy enough and I read Fargas is getting the bulk of carries in practice so he may get the start. I would start him and get rid on Lamont he is the softest rb in the
NFL. SERIES HISTORY
3rd meeting. Texans lead series 2-0. Houston beat the Raiders at McAfee Coliseum 23-14 last Dec. 3. The Texans won despite a net passing yardage of minus-5 yards. Kris Brown kicked three field goals in the fourth quarter to provide the margin of victory.
* bengals vs bills dont know what to expect from these 2 but bills have been money at home. I like Loseman and think he adds a little more than Edwards but Loseman will give up a turnover or 2. no really play or lean on this game. Its a coinflip imo.
* sf vs atl- I think ATL should be the only play but dont really like this game line should be a pk.
2007 NFL YTD:
ATS : 40-34-7 (+6.15 units)
Underdog ML : 16-35 (+21.59 units)
2nd Half plays: 6-6 ( -4.45 units)
parlays: 4-10 (+1.56 units)
teasers: 0-1 (-1.10 units)
NFL Week 9:
Green Bay +2 and or ML @ Arrowhead - (2 units or more play) Ok 1st off looking at this game it looks as if it might be a trap game. Everyone seen how Favre won that dramatic MNF game now they are 2 pt dogs. Chiefs are coming off a bye atop the Afc west and b4 that won a defensive struggle at Oakland. Arrowhead is one of the hardest places to play in the NFL but the packers are 3-0 on the road so that should'nt be much of a problem.
Ok on matchups. I dont really think the chiefs offense matche's up with Green Bay's defense. I really see them struggling in this game to put up pt's. It all start's with Larry Johnson he hasnt done to well this year. he has over 100 yds his last game but If it wasn't for a 58 yd run he would have only had 40 some yards. The reason why he can't run is because the Chiefs soft O-Line and it doesnt help playing a tough pack defense. They have a strong front seven and should match up well with the chiefs running game. The cheifs only avg 82 yds rusing and the packers only give up 98 so it could be a long day for LJ. On the GB secondary besides Bigby they are solid and like to play man. Rookie Wr Bowe will have a tough game with Woodson and Harris. One thing I dont like is the TE matchup. Denver te's were making plays on MNF against the packers and the bears te's made plays all game on them also. now they have to face HOF TE Tony Gonzales. I expect the packers to pay extra attention on that matchup because he seems like the only threat that matches up well against this defense. Packers have a great pass rush and Kampman is coming off a 3 sack game so he should be able to get pressure on Huard and force a mistake or 2. I give the packers the edge on this side of the ball and I think the Chiefs are really gonna struggle to put up pts.
On the other side of the ball. I really like how rookie rb Grant stepped up his last game and added something new to the GB offense. The packers will have a tough test against an underated defense. It all starts with Jared Allen. The packers do pass alot but only have gave up 12 sacks so I think the o-line can hold the Cheifs pass eush which starts with Allen and Hali. It may be tough to run on this defense so the Packers will have to rely on Favre which isnt nothing new and I think he can beat this secondary. Carson palmer got 320 and 2 td but threw picks. If the o-line holds and Favre manages the game well and dont make mistakes they should be able to put up some pts in the AIr.I dont really think the Cheifs corners(law and Surtain) can keep up with the speed of the packers wr's. I think this game will start close and the Packers will pull away late because the Chiefs offense will have trouble keeping up. Packers pull away late for what should be an easy win...
Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog
Az Cards +3.5 and or ML @ Tampa - (1-2 unit play) This one has the look of one of those hard hitting defensive struggles. Bucs coming off a 1 pt loss at home and Cards coming off a bye but b4 that loss a game to the skins where they tried to rally late for ot but failed on a 2 pt conversion...
First off Cards coming off a much needed bye they have alot of banged up players and I think that bye week will do good for them and will show on the field. On matchups first the Bucs defense is solid but a bit over rated imo. they do well against the pass(173 ypg), although I do think you can get to cb Buchanon, they somewhat struggle against the run (124 ypg), that should bold well for an offense that likea to pound edge james and control the clock then hit you with some big plays to their big time wideouts. I think Boldin and Fitz can have a field day against this secondary if Edge struggles, but It's all on how Warner is. Overall i think the Cards have advantage on this side of the ball.
On defense the Cards must pressure Garcia the cards defense has 17 sacks on the year so they have the players to do it. although Grahm has looked good at times the bucs still struggle to run. Bennet helped a little and got a td last week but I still think there is to much pressure on Garcia with no run game and it showed last week. Garcia had no int's all year and last week he threw 3. It looked as if he was trying to much and just trying to make something happen. The cards dont cause much turnover's (6 int's 6 fumble recoveries) but they are still a stellar defense and I think they have the talent to shut down the running game and the Bucs major threat wideout J.Galloway. I see this game a little similar to last week and I think Garcia will struggle again trying to much against a stout defense. Im going with the better offense in this one I think cards win a close game late...
Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog
Titans -4 vs Panthers - (1-2 unit play) Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss
Jville Jags +3.5 and or ML @ Nawlins - (1-2 unit play) - Ok first off what the Jags showed last week was heart they are not gonna let injuries dictate their season. They could have easily layed down last week on the road vs the bucs but they fought for 60 min's and pulled out the W. Thats all you can ask for as an underdog on the road. Its a big reason why im backing the jags again. The saints are also coming off a nice win against the 9ers and are trying to turn their season around but it wont be easy this week Jags are no 9ers.
Ok on matchups on offense the big question of course is QB Gray. He didnt do much last week as he got the start. One thing he didnt do was throw Int's which is big. seeing the Jags want to pound the ball with their 2 rb's and stud fb all Gray has to do is manage the game and dont turn the ball over. When need be he will have to pass to make a big play and he showed he can do that last week when he hit Jones for the go ahead td. The saints defense has not been that good all year but they have been good on the saints 3 game winning streak. So the Jags must be on their game. Saints only give up 98 yds on the run but Its mostly because teams were passing on them. I still think the Taylor/Jones duo can pound this defense and not force to much on Gray. I think the Jags will put up pts but the bigger match is on the other side of the ball
On defense one major thing to note is DT Stroud is being hit with a 4 game suspension , dont know how it will affect him or his teamates. The jags got Grady Jackson form free agency. The main thing the defense will have to worry about is Drew Brees he's coming off his best game of the year with over 300 yds and 4 td's against an upincoming defense, so the Jags have their hands full, but come in with the 4th ranked defense and also cause havoc which can slow down Bree's. The jags have 8 Int's 19 sacks and 8 fumble recoveries on the year so they have the players and talent to cause turnovers and shut down this offense. Bush has been running hard but I dont think he will be much a factor in the run game in this matchup. I see this game staying close because of the Jags defense and the winner winning by a FG...
Jaguars are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog
Jacksonville looks for its fifth straight win over an NFC team, while the Saints will try to avoid a sixth consecutive defeat to an AFC club
Lions -2.5 vs The Broncos - (2 units or more) Lions are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall
Minny +7.5 and ML vs The Boltz - (1-2 unit play) Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0
Dawg Pawnd -1.5 vs The Seahawks -(2-3 unit play) Ok after watching this offense close the last couple of weeks Imo they are the real deal. They have 2-3 nice rb's and a vet in Jamal. Braylon and K2 have been playing great they are 4th in the leauge at scoring for a reason. They are coming off a 7 pt win on the road against the winless rams. You got the feeling last week when they were down 14-0 the browns offense was never out of it and it was true they rallied to take a 17-14 lead . The Seahawks are coming off a bye the week before they beat the same winless rams easily at home.
Ok on matchups first off with brown on offense they have a tough matchups the Hawks have 23 sacks on the yeat 8 int's and 15 fumble recoveries so the Browns o-line and Qb Anderson must be on top of their game. I think Braylon and K2 really matchup against this defense and Andersona and the Browns will challenge them early. I think all the numbers can favor the seahawks offense especially that the Browns run defense has been soft and the Hawks like the run the Ball with Alexander but one thing I noticed is when the Browns are at Home (3-1) they like to jump out and score early and the big thing is they feed off the crazy fans and energy and having high energy players like Braylon, K2 and Anderson helps. I expect the Browns to do the same in this game come out firing early get the lead, take away the run game from the hawks and just Tee off on Matt H. I think Browns win a high scoring game by a TD...
Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0
The Manning's +5.5 and ML vs The Brady's - (5 units or more) Dont really need to say much on this game everyone has their opinion on why they think either team will win or cover or whatnot. I just think its kind of ridiculous to have to the defending champs at home underdogs by close to a TD and over +200 on the ML. I dont care who the Pats beat or by how much. I see alot of value on the Colts I think they come out and show the Nation why they won the superbowl last year.
head to head meeting trend- Underdog is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
Cowboys -3 @ Philly - (3-5 unit play) T.O, Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC
The Ravens +9 and ML @ Blitzburgh - (2-4 unit play)
* on skins vs jets, I lean skins but I think Clemens is gonna really help the offense but the jets have bigger problems on defense. I think this game will be close if the line keep going up for the Jets I will take them even tho they have burned me the last 2 weeks.
* on the raider game may just put 1 unit just for action. I would rather play the raiders when they are dogs. The defense took a big hit with Kelly (de) going on IR he was the best d-line the raiders had so far this year. this game is nothing to bet big imo. I have a feeling Kiffin will start McCown if healthy enough and I read Fargas is getting the bulk of carries in practice so he may get the start. I would start him and get rid on Lamont he is the softest rb in the
NFL. SERIES HISTORY
3rd meeting. Texans lead series 2-0. Houston beat the Raiders at McAfee Coliseum 23-14 last Dec. 3. The Texans won despite a net passing yardage of minus-5 yards. Kris Brown kicked three field goals in the fourth quarter to provide the margin of victory.
* bengals vs bills dont know what to expect from these 2 but bills have been money at home. I like Loseman and think he adds a little more than Edwards but Loseman will give up a turnover or 2. no really play or lean on this game. Its a coinflip imo.
* sf vs atl- I think ATL should be the only play but dont really like this game line should be a pk.
2007 NFL YTD:
ATS : 40-34-7 (+6.15 units)
Underdog ML : 16-35 (+21.59 units)
2nd Half plays: 6-6 ( -4.45 units)
parlays: 4-10 (+1.56 units)
teasers: 0-1 (-1.10 units)
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rayer
