NFL Week 8

[smh212]

YTD: 27-15 +17.13
Sides: 9-7 +1.55
Totals: 7-4 +3.51
Teaser: 4-2 +9.00
Parlays 1-2 +1.85
Prop : 3-0 +2.85
Half 3-2 +0.28
I played the UNDER in NE last night for (1.25) and the Dolphins +5.5 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half for (1). Didn’t have time to post, but plays are reflected in my record. The ‘under’ was a no brainer for me, as I didn’t see Miami scoring 20+. I played Miami 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half simply because I got a good number (most shops had 4.5).
Margin Against the Close
The MAC system requires that a teams MAC score is either + or – 40 and if they are a fade team (score in the +) they had to have covered the prior week. If they are a PLAY ON team, they had to have not covered last week. The purpose of the MAC is to measure a team’s performance against the markets expectations.

Mac Fades
Overall 3-0 +3.00
MAC Play On
Overall 0-0

Week 7 had no MAC plays

Week 8 NO MAC plays:
No MAC plays in week 8, but here are some nuggets from the MAC chart:

• Current Range: AZ +57 – Hou -40 (prior week: AZ +59 – Jax -38)
• AZ (+57), Cincy (+46), NY (+43.5), NE (+42), and Car (+37) make up the top 5 market beaters to date. Note that Carolina replaces Pitt in the 5 spot, and Cincy, NY, and NE all have the same MAC as last week. Cincy had a bye which gives them a 0 for week 7 and NE and NYJ pushed so they also registered a 0.
• Hou (-40), Det (-39.5), SF (-37.5), SD (-33), and Jax (-32) make up the top 5 market underperformers to date. (Week 7 Jax (-38), KC (-33,5), Balt (-33), Det (-30.5), and Hou (-27) ). SF and SD are all newcomers to the bottom 5, replacing KC and Balt. Balt scored a +2, and SD a 12*. The

* is due to the fact that the Chargers scored a TD with 6 seconds left, as well one on the drive before that, and outscored Oak 23-0 in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP]. Heading into the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] the score was 37-6. Moreover, SD need 40 plays to score those last 2 TD’s, which tells me the Oakland D did their job. I generate and keep my own databases. All final scores are entered into my database, but I have a metric I use called “true final”, which produces an entirely separate set of numbers as it takes game flow into account. Another example is the Dallas/Nyg game. Giants scored 1 TD on a pick 6 and another off a Cole Beasley muffed punt. The final score shows NY winning by 7. My “true final” has Dallas winning 20-14. So the question becomes, what would the MAC look like using the “true final”? The reality for me is that I don’t have the time to do it, so for now it will remain a part of my overall capping.

• SELL AZ? 1-3 ATS L4 , -9 MAC, including a -9 (wk4 - STL) and -18 (wk6 - PITT). +20 (wk5 - DET).

Injuries of note:
NICK MANGOLD – OUT – NYJ. Losing your center is always a big deal. Losing one of the best in the game….real big deal. EUGENE MONROE – LT – BALT…James Hurst, the backup is TURRIBLE. ERIC WEDDLE expected to miss again. RUSSEL OKUNG LT – SEA – expected to miss. Seattle allows a league worst 4.4 sacks per game already….now Okung out? TB looks to be w/out VINCENT JACKSON, LOUIS MURPHY and AUSTIN S. JENKINS. ATL missing WILLIAM MOORE is a big deal for that defense. MOORE plays the Kam Chancellor role for coach Quinn in ATL.

Thoughts:

Det@KC
My Line: KC -5 42.5
My play: UNDER 45 (1.25)
Line move? Pinny opens 6, other shops open 4.5 -5, move on air to 6, market now settled at 3.5
DET fired OC, OL, Assist OL coach
DET SIO improving L3 weeks: 1,3,8
KC 32nd in PT/100 yards
How will coaching changes effect DET?
I don't see where the points are going to come from. I have this marked 20-17/24-20 either one get's it done.

Minn@Chi
My line: PK 42.5
My Play: BEARS +100 (1.25)

Raw numbers have Minny as a 2.5 PT favorite, but the situational aspects make this game a pick, and have me on CHICAGO. Minnesota is 4-2, but 2 of those wins are over Det, 1 against Chiefs, and 1 against SD. Those teams have a combined record of 5-16. Talent wise, Minny has more talent on defense, but offensively I’d argue that Chi has the talent edge. Coach Fox has gotten the most out of this group, and I like them off a bye at home, as they have shown a good amount of improvement. Heading into week 5, I had Chi PR at -10. Heading into this week I have them at -5.5. Divisional game at home, throw the records out, and give me an improving Bears team.

Be back

:shake:

 

[chancedog]

GL Smh212, do you have any thoughts on NO/NYG over?

 

[STEED]

GL sir

 

[smh212]

Chance,
Here are my notes on the Saints game. I think the total is accurate, that being said, I believe whether it goes over or under depends on what the Saints offense does.

NyG@No
My line: No -3.5 49
Lean NO at -3
Giants had no business winning last week:
Giants won and covered last week vs Dallas
Cowboys had:
14 more first downs
171 more yards
16 minute Time of Possession advantage
4-0 turnover edge
(Giants scored on INT return and KO return)
Giants #31 yardage differential, McAdoo offense overrated, Giants defense has no playmakers.
Saints showing life last two games. Is Bree’s healthy?
Saints Avg 24 PF and 24 PA L4, and 23 PF and 27 PA YTD. Improvements in offensive efficiency, and getting key plays back on defense, have my PR on the Saints at a high point for the season, but still rank them below an average team.
Giants offense has regressed over the last 4, but D has shown a slight uptick.
27-23 Saints looks about right.

 

[smh212]

Thanks STEED.

 

[chancedog]

Thanks smh I appreciate your insight

 

[JML4481]

One of the must read threads each week.

 

[dilaudid8]

212 bol today

 

[dilaudid8]

nice job

 

[smh212]

Week 8 Cont

JM and D8.....:shake:

SF @ STL
My Line: Stl -8 40 (Raw # STL -10)
Lean: RAMS in a teaser to -2
SF’s “D” has improved by a FG since the start of the season. The offense remains inconsistent, and thus hard to bet, and any perceived success should be taken with a grain of salt:

SF dominated by opponents the last five weeks:
First Downs: opponents 122; SF 63
Yards: opponents 2141; SF 1265
Time of Possession: opponents 177 mins; SF 123 mins

With STL, their defense is very good, especially at home, however, the offense, despite the emergence of Gurley remains terrible. I would consider STL at 7 or less, but their offense make it hard to lay more than that. For me, the Rams are a solid teaser candidate.

Az @ Cle
My Line: AZ -5.5 44
My play: UNDER 45.5 (1.25)

Situational capping has me shading towards Cle. AZ has a bye next week, followed with a divisional game against Seattle, and they are on a short week, having played on Monday night and now travel. After posting 40+ points in 3 of their first 5 games, the AZ offense managed 13 @ Pitt, and 26 vs Balt.
Subsequently, the Cards are 1-3 ATS in their last 4, with a MAC of -9, which had it not been for the wk5 42-17 destruction of Detroit, could be worse.
The Browns offense sputtered in the dome against STL. The pass rush was too much and now McNown is banged up, and if Manziel has to play the offense is really going to struggle. On the flip side the return of Haden and Gipson should provide a must needed boost to the Cle D. I’m calling for a 23-17, 24-20 type game.

Cin@Pitt
My line: Pitt -2 59
My Play: PITT -1 (1.25)

Pitt enters this game with all weapons on offense, for the first time this year. Playing with the missing pieces as they have, should make them better. Having Big Ben gives them a big upgrade in my PR. Cincy has been excellent all year. They are 5-0-1 ATS with a YTD MAC of 46. No doubt Cincy is good, but they are going to lose some games, and this is a good spot to fade them IMO.

Others:
Nothing for me in Balt/SD. My PR says Balt -1, but the volatility of both teams is too much for me…..pass

Passing Houston. Hou way to volatile for me. PR says Hou -3. QB uncertainty for Tenny….pass.
NyJ @ Oak
My line: NyJ -1
Lean Oakland +165 or better

Stats are conflicting:
Jets #3 rushing offense (137 ypg)
Oakland defense #3 against rush (84 ypg)
Oakland worst D against pass (303 ypg)

Oakland continues to rise in my PR. Oakland had a 37-6 lead on SD before garbage time made it close. Week before they didn’t allow a TD to Denver….Oakland D is better than numbers would suggest.
Jets excellent in pass protect – allowed 4 sacks all season.

Have interest in Oakland, however, this is gonna be a scheme and the most physical team they have faced this season. Need a 3.5 (doubt it pops, but poss) or +165 or better.

Sea@Dallas
My line: Sea -3 41
My play: DALLAS +4.5 (1.25) and DALLAS +185 (.25)

I was on Dallas last week, and my data base has them winning that game. The offense seemed more comfortable w/ Cassel, and the return of Dez, even if it’s as a decoy will help. That being said, games are won in the trenches. I have Dallas D-line rated MUCH better than Seattle’s O-line, and Dallas O-line rated better than Seattle’s D-line. If Dallas can control the pace, their improving defense will get to Wilson on passing downs.

Lastly, Dallas is sporting a -35 MAC entering this one, and are 0-4 ATS L4. Typically, scenarios like this result in team the Dallas spot getting a cover.

GB @ Den
My line: GB -2 43.5
My play UNDER 46.5 (1.25)

Denver’s defense is the best in the NFL. GB’s has improved each week. Peyton Manning is one of the worst QB’s in the NFL this year, and as a result, Denver is 18[SUP]th[/SUP] in yd/play, 19[SUP]th[/SUP] in pts/100 yds, and 16[SUP]th[/SUP] in yds/pass. All are career lows for a Manning led offense. The Den “D” ranks in the Top 5 in EVERY significant defense metric I use.
GB’s offense has been much more prolific, but that’s to be expected. It’s the GB defense, which is 1[SUP]st[/SUP] in pts/play, 8[SUP]th[/SUP] in yds/pass, and 1[SUP]st[/SUP] in pts/100 yds. Combine the two clubs numbers, and my numbers produce a PACE of PLAY more in line with a total of 43.5.

I will be adding a tease using STL, just waiting to see where numbers are around noon EST.

 

[smh212]

Adding:

CLEVELAND +7, -115 (1.25)

Value with Cle at 7.

 

[eggman]

Good write ups. On the Bears with you but concerned to see you and others on the Steelers. I like Bengals. Bol.

 

[smh212]

Wow - what a rough morning.
Chiefs UNDER - CHIEFS score 45 pts THEMSELVES. This a team whose previous high was 28 pts.
Bears - blow a 7 pt lead, and lose on a FG w/ no time left.
Steelers - Up 10-6. Defense plays well, and Big Ben throws horrific picks. More concerning was when Bell got hurt, the game plan changed dramatically. Why? Williams is a capable backup. They blow it.
Browns and Browns under. Browns up 20-7 and just shit the bed

Added: 3T - Cowboys +14.5, Den/Gb UNDER 56.5 and open (6 to win 5).

 

[smh212]

Had a nice rally on the late games...would have been a bit better had Dallas won outright.

Closing my 3 team tease with Colts +16.

Good luck to all.

 

[Metallica]

GL tonight SMH.

 

[dilaudid8]

nice work bol