smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
YTD: 27-15 +17.13
Sides: 9-7 +1.55
Totals: 7-4 +3.51
Teaser: 4-2 +9.00
Parlays 1-2 +1.85
Prop : 3-0 +2.85
Half 3-2 +0.28
I played the UNDER in NE last night for (1.25) and the Dolphins +5.5 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half for (1). Didn’t have time to post, but plays are reflected in my record. The ‘under’ was a no brainer for me, as I didn’t see Miami scoring 20+. I played Miami 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half simply because I got a good number (most shops had 4.5).
Margin Against the Close
The MAC system requires that a teams MAC score is either + or – 40 and if they are a fade team (score in the +) they had to have covered the prior week. If they are a PLAY ON team, they had to have not covered last week. The purpose of the MAC is to measure a team’s performance against the markets expectations.
Mac Fades
Overall 3-0 +3.00
MAC Play On
Overall 0-0
Week 7 had no MAC plays
Week 8 NO MAC plays:
No MAC plays in week 8, but here are some nuggets from the MAC chart:
* is due to the fact that the Chargers scored a TD with 6 seconds left, as well one on the drive before that, and outscored Oak 23-0 in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP]. Heading into the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] the score was 37-6. Moreover, SD need 40 plays to score those last 2 TD’s, which tells me the Oakland D did their job. I generate and keep my own databases. All final scores are entered into my database, but I have a metric I use called “true final”, which produces an entirely separate set of numbers as it takes game flow into account. Another example is the Dallas/Nyg game. Giants scored 1 TD on a pick 6 and another off a Cole Beasley muffed punt. The final score shows NY winning by 7. My “true final” has Dallas winning 20-14. So the question becomes, what would the MAC look like using the “true final”? The reality for me is that I don’t have the time to do it, so for now it will remain a part of my overall capping.
Injuries of note:
NICK MANGOLD – OUT – NYJ. Losing your center is always a big deal. Losing one of the best in the game….real big deal. EUGENE MONROE – LT – BALT…James Hurst, the backup is TURRIBLE. ERIC WEDDLE expected to miss again. RUSSEL OKUNG LT – SEA – expected to miss. Seattle allows a league worst 4.4 sacks per game already….now Okung out? TB looks to be w/out VINCENT JACKSON, LOUIS MURPHY and AUSTIN S. JENKINS. ATL missing WILLIAM MOORE is a big deal for that defense. MOORE plays the Kam Chancellor role for coach Quinn in ATL.
Thoughts:
Det@KC
My Line: KC -5 42.5
My play: UNDER 45 (1.25)
Line move? Pinny opens 6, other shops open 4.5 -5, move on air to 6, market now settled at 3.5
DET fired OC, OL, Assist OL coach
DET SIO improving L3 weeks: 1,3,8
KC 32nd in PT/100 yards
How will coaching changes effect DET?
I don't see where the points are going to come from. I have this marked 20-17/24-20 either one get's it done.
Minn@Chi
My line: PK 42.5
My Play: BEARS +100 (1.25)
Raw numbers have Minny as a 2.5 PT favorite, but the situational aspects make this game a pick, and have me on CHICAGO. Minnesota is 4-2, but 2 of those wins are over Det, 1 against Chiefs, and 1 against SD. Those teams have a combined record of 5-16. Talent wise, Minny has more talent on defense, but offensively I’d argue that Chi has the talent edge. Coach Fox has gotten the most out of this group, and I like them off a bye at home, as they have shown a good amount of improvement. Heading into week 5, I had Chi PR at -10. Heading into this week I have them at -5.5. Divisional game at home, throw the records out, and give me an improving Bears team.
Be back
:shake:
Sides: 9-7 +1.55
Totals: 7-4 +3.51
Teaser: 4-2 +9.00
Parlays 1-2 +1.85
Prop : 3-0 +2.85
Half 3-2 +0.28
I played the UNDER in NE last night for (1.25) and the Dolphins +5.5 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half for (1). Didn’t have time to post, but plays are reflected in my record. The ‘under’ was a no brainer for me, as I didn’t see Miami scoring 20+. I played Miami 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half simply because I got a good number (most shops had 4.5).
Margin Against the Close
The MAC system requires that a teams MAC score is either + or – 40 and if they are a fade team (score in the +) they had to have covered the prior week. If they are a PLAY ON team, they had to have not covered last week. The purpose of the MAC is to measure a team’s performance against the markets expectations.
Mac Fades
Overall 3-0 +3.00
MAC Play On
Overall 0-0
Week 7 had no MAC plays
Week 8 NO MAC plays:
No MAC plays in week 8, but here are some nuggets from the MAC chart:
- Current Range: AZ +57 – Hou -40 (prior week: AZ +59 – Jax -38)
- AZ (+57), Cincy (+46), NY (+43.5), NE (+42), and Car (+37) make up the top 5 market beaters to date. Note that Carolina replaces Pitt in the 5 spot, and Cincy, NY, and NE all have the same MAC as last week. Cincy had a bye which gives them a 0 for week 7 and NE and NYJ pushed so they also registered a 0.
- Hou (-40), Det (-39.5), SF (-37.5), SD (-33), and Jax (-32) make up the top 5 market underperformers to date. (Week 7 Jax (-38), KC (-33,5), Balt (-33), Det (-30.5), and Hou (-27) ). SF and SD are all newcomers to the bottom 5, replacing KC and Balt. Balt scored a +2, and SD a 12*. The
* is due to the fact that the Chargers scored a TD with 6 seconds left, as well one on the drive before that, and outscored Oak 23-0 in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP]. Heading into the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] the score was 37-6. Moreover, SD need 40 plays to score those last 2 TD’s, which tells me the Oakland D did their job. I generate and keep my own databases. All final scores are entered into my database, but I have a metric I use called “true final”, which produces an entirely separate set of numbers as it takes game flow into account. Another example is the Dallas/Nyg game. Giants scored 1 TD on a pick 6 and another off a Cole Beasley muffed punt. The final score shows NY winning by 7. My “true final” has Dallas winning 20-14. So the question becomes, what would the MAC look like using the “true final”? The reality for me is that I don’t have the time to do it, so for now it will remain a part of my overall capping.
- SELL AZ? 1-3 ATS L4 , -9 MAC, including a -9 (wk4 - STL) and -18 (wk6 - PITT). +20 (wk5 - DET).
Injuries of note:
NICK MANGOLD – OUT – NYJ. Losing your center is always a big deal. Losing one of the best in the game….real big deal. EUGENE MONROE – LT – BALT…James Hurst, the backup is TURRIBLE. ERIC WEDDLE expected to miss again. RUSSEL OKUNG LT – SEA – expected to miss. Seattle allows a league worst 4.4 sacks per game already….now Okung out? TB looks to be w/out VINCENT JACKSON, LOUIS MURPHY and AUSTIN S. JENKINS. ATL missing WILLIAM MOORE is a big deal for that defense. MOORE plays the Kam Chancellor role for coach Quinn in ATL.
Thoughts:
Det@KC
My Line: KC -5 42.5
My play: UNDER 45 (1.25)
Line move? Pinny opens 6, other shops open 4.5 -5, move on air to 6, market now settled at 3.5
DET fired OC, OL, Assist OL coach
DET SIO improving L3 weeks: 1,3,8
KC 32nd in PT/100 yards
How will coaching changes effect DET?
I don't see where the points are going to come from. I have this marked 20-17/24-20 either one get's it done.
Minn@Chi
My line: PK 42.5
My Play: BEARS +100 (1.25)
Raw numbers have Minny as a 2.5 PT favorite, but the situational aspects make this game a pick, and have me on CHICAGO. Minnesota is 4-2, but 2 of those wins are over Det, 1 against Chiefs, and 1 against SD. Those teams have a combined record of 5-16. Talent wise, Minny has more talent on defense, but offensively I’d argue that Chi has the talent edge. Coach Fox has gotten the most out of this group, and I like them off a bye at home, as they have shown a good amount of improvement. Heading into week 5, I had Chi PR at -10. Heading into this week I have them at -5.5. Divisional game at home, throw the records out, and give me an improving Bears team.
Be back
:shake:
