NFL Week 8

[smh212]

YTD

• Sides: 15-9 +5.04
• Totals: 7-11 -4.65
• Team Totals: 1-1 -.44
• Player Props: 7-6 -0.27
• Teasers: 3-6 -10.60
• Second Half: 1-0 +1.25
• 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half total -1.10
• Parlay: 0-1 -1.00
• 1st half side: 1-0 +1.25

Cut back on my plays last week and it paid it off. I would be about even on the season, but my horrible teaser record, has been a BR killer. The root cause of the losing teasers has been my inability to adjust my totals formulas. I tweaked it last week, and it spit out one game: Under in Buffalo. Going more "situational" than "statistical" w/ my total plays going forward. With week 8 here, doing a comparison of my PR for the season vs my PR over the last 4 has been really good at revealing edges ATS over the past 4 years.

[TABLE="width: 744"]
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]Rank[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Overall Power[/TD]
[TD]Record[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Net +/-[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Overall Power[/TD]
[TD]Record[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Baltimore Ravens[/TD]
[TD]10.449[/TD]
[TD]5-2-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]9.7[/TD]
[TD]Jacksonville Jaguars[/TD]
[TD]-0.734[/TD]
[TD]1-3-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]Denver Broncos[/TD]
[TD]10.346[/TD]
[TD]5-1-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]4.4[/TD]
[TD]Kansas City Chiefs[/TD]
[TD]7.298[/TD]
[TD]3-1-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]Indianapolis Colts[/TD]
[TD]8.146[/TD]
[TD]5-2-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]4.1[/TD]
[TD]St. Louis Rams[/TD]
[TD]-3.41[/TD]
[TD]1-3-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]San Diego Chargers[/TD]
[TD]7.601[/TD]
[TD]5-2-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]3.1[/TD]
[TD]New Orleans Saints[/TD]
[TD]4.423[/TD]
[TD]2-2-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Philadelphia Eagles[/TD]
[TD]6.986[/TD]
[TD]5-1-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]2.9[/TD]
[TD]San Diego Chargers[/TD]
[TD]10.58[/TD]
[TD]3-1-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Green Bay Packers[/TD]
[TD]6.447[/TD]
[TD]5-2-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]2.5[/TD]
[TD]New York (NYG) Giants[/TD]
[TD]-3.665[/TD]
[TD]2-2-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]Miami Dolphins[/TD]
[TD]6.074[/TD]
[TD]3-3-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]Cleveland Browns[/TD]
[TD]0.373[/TD]
[TD]2-2-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]Dallas Cowboys[/TD]
[TD]5.45[/TD]
[TD]6-1-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.95[/TD]
[TD]Dallas Cowboys[/TD]
[TD]7.405[/TD]
[TD]4-0-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]Seattle Seahawks[/TD]
[TD]5.041[/TD]
[TD]3-3-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.9[/TD]
[TD]Green Bay Packers[/TD]
[TD]8.357[/TD]
[TD]4-0-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]Detroit Lions[/TD]
[TD]3.992[/TD]
[TD]5-2-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.8[/TD]
[TD]Indianapolis Colts[/TD]
[TD]9.995[/TD]
[TD]4-0-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]New England Patriots[/TD]
[TD]3.906[/TD]
[TD]5-2-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.4[/TD]
[TD]Baltimore Ravens[/TD]
[TD]11.829[/TD]
[TD]3-1-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]Kansas City Chiefs[/TD]
[TD]2.869[/TD]
[TD]3-3-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.4[/TD]
[TD]Miami Dolphins[/TD]
[TD]7.405[/TD]
[TD]2-2-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]Washington Redskins[/TD]
[TD]2.091[/TD]
[TD]2-5-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.4[/TD]
[TD]San Francisco 49'ers[/TD]
[TD]2.935[/TD]
[TD]3-1-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]San Francisco 49'ers[/TD]
[TD]1.52[/TD]
[TD]4-3-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.6[/TD]
[TD]Oakland Raiders[/TD]
[TD]-7.289[/TD]
[TD]0-4-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]New Orleans Saints[/TD]
[TD]1.311[/TD]
[TD]2-4-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.5[/TD]
[TD]Denver Broncos[/TD]
[TD]10.825[/TD]
[TD]3-1-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]Pittsburgh Steelers[/TD]
[TD]1.169[/TD]
[TD]4-3-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.3[/TD]
[TD]Buffalo Bills[/TD]
[TD]-0.087[/TD]
[TD]2-2-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]Cincinnati Bengals[/TD]
[TD]0.558[/TD]
[TD]3-2-1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.3[/TD]
[TD]Chicago Bears[/TD]
[TD]-1.298[/TD]
[TD]1-3-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]Houston Texans[/TD]
[TD]-0.284[/TD]
[TD]3-4-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.2[/TD]
[TD]Tampa Bay Buccaneers[/TD]
[TD]-10.042[/TD]
[TD]1-3-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]Arizona Cardinals[/TD]
[TD]-0.309[/TD]
[TD]5-1-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-0.3[/TD]
[TD]Houston Texans[/TD]
[TD]-0.553[/TD]
[TD]1-3-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]Buffalo Bills[/TD]
[TD]-0.389[/TD]
[TD]4-3-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-0.3[/TD]
[TD]Tennessee Titans[/TD]
[TD]-6.727[/TD]
[TD]1-3-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]Chicago Bears[/TD]
[TD]-1.563[/TD]
[TD]3-4-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-0.5[/TD]
[TD]New England Patriots[/TD]
[TD]3.408[/TD]
[TD]3-1-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]Cleveland Browns[/TD]
[TD]-1.623[/TD]
[TD]3-3-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-0.9[/TD]
[TD]Carolina Panthers[/TD]
[TD]-7.639[/TD]
[TD]1-2-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]Atlanta Falcons[/TD]
[TD]-1.699[/TD]
[TD]2-5-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-1.7[/TD]
[TD]Seattle Seahawks[/TD]
[TD]3.346[/TD]
[TD]2-2-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]Minnesota Vikings[/TD]
[TD]-4.199[/TD]
[TD]2-5-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-1.7[/TD]
[TD]Minnesota Vikings[/TD]
[TD]-5.821[/TD]
[TD]1-3-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]Tennessee Titans[/TD]
[TD]-6.481[/TD]
[TD]2-5-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-1.8[/TD]
[TD]Detroit Lions[/TD]
[TD]2.127[/TD]
[TD]3-1-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]New York (NYJ) Jets[/TD]
[TD]-6.777[/TD]
[TD]1-6-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-2.2[/TD]
[TD]Pittsburgh Steelers[/TD]
[TD]-1.037[/TD]
[TD]2-2-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]Carolina Panthers[/TD]
[TD]-6.795[/TD]
[TD]3-3-1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-2.2[/TD]
[TD]Arizona Cardinals[/TD]
[TD]-2.565[/TD]
[TD]3-1-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]New York (NYG) Giants[/TD]
[TD]-7.162[/TD]
[TD]3-4-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-2.6[/TD]
[TD]New York (NYJ) Jets[/TD]
[TD]-9.314[/TD]
[TD]0-4-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]St. Louis Rams[/TD]
[TD]-7.595[/TD]
[TD]2-4-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-3.4[/TD]
[TD]Philadelphia Eagles[/TD]
[TD]3.534[/TD]
[TD]3-1-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]Oakland Raiders[/TD]
[TD]-8.21[/TD]
[TD]0-6-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-3.4[/TD]
[TD]Cincinnati Bengals[/TD]
[TD]-3.909[/TD]
[TD]1-2-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]Tampa Bay Buccaneers[/TD]
[TD]-10.207[/TD]
[TD]1-5-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-4.2[/TD]
[TD]Washington Redskins[/TD]
[TD]-2.269[/TD]
[TD]1-3-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]32[/TD]
[TD]Jacksonville Jaguars[/TD]
[TD]-10.432[/TD]
[TD]1-6-0[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]-6.4[/TD]
[TD]Atlanta Falcons[/TD]
[TD]-8.162[/TD]
[TD]0-4-0[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

What I'm looking for are the teams that are either over or under valued. The change in NET PR for a team over their last 4 vs the entire season is a good starting point. However, the key is determining if the change in NET PR has already been incorporated in the point spread or not. Of course this is subjective, but you have to start somewhere. Jacksonville is at the top of the NET PR, however, they have already covered their last 2 and won the their last game SU as a home dog. Still, I think there still be some value their against Miami. KC has shot their load IMO. Over their last 4, they are 3-1 ATS and SU, having defeated New England, @ SD, and @ Mia. Lone loss was by .5 ATS @SF in a game, which if you bet early, KC covered. The Rams are next in line, and that makes shit interesting since they face the Chiefs (1st of 3 straight road games). While up not up on the Chiefs, I'm not up on the Rams either. Rams have @KC, @SF, and @AZ. I think the league will have caught up to Austin Davis by the end of KC, and then it's downhill. Next up is the SAINTS. This is one, where I think I'm going to get involved. Saints laying 1 in the dome. Public perception of this team is at an all time season low, while public perception on the Packers is at a season high. However, my numbers say that over the past 4 the Saints have actually improved to the tune of 3.1. GB has also improved, but not as much as you might think (1.9). The Saints season is on the line, and their in their dome. I will be laying the 1.

Interested to hear opinions on my chart.

:shake:

 

[emkee]

Agree with the Saints. First time in forever they are very much underrated vs a team that has hit their ceiling.

Always a solid angle to fade teams off a 'flawless' victory (an ass-kicking in which they were favored by -6.5 or more, led after every quarter and won the turnover margin). Next game said teams are 29-69-1 ATS the last 10 years (has occurred 6 times this season going 1-5-1 ATS). Applies to 2 teams this week and one of them is the Pack.

GL going forward bro and go Birds !

 

[B.A.R.]

Totally agree on the 'Aints..

Thanks for posting the chart...

 

[smh212]

Thanks EM and BAR.

SD +9 (1.25)

 

[smh212]

Not the start I was looking for w/ SD.

Atl/Det UNDER 46 (1.25)
My line: 43

ATL's offensive line woes get worse this week as they lost their BU center Konz last week. This week they will be starting an UDFA at the position. Not good for a team who struggles outside as it is. Det has played excellent defense this year, and their Dline should have it's way with the Falcons O line. Detroit facing many injuries at the TE position, and I don't expect much out of the offense. A team that is usually loaded with play makers, is devoid of them this week. Call it 24-17.

Will be adding.

 

[~Utah]

GL smh

 

[smh212]

Thanks Alex.

SAINTS -2 (3)
My line: NO -3.5

Largest bet of the year for me thus far. Here are my notes on the game, compiled from around the web, and my NFL system:

Saints could easily be 6-1
Losses to Atlanta, Cleveland, Detroit easily go either way
Saints up by 13 with 4:00 minutes left last week vs. Detroit (eventually losing the game)
Saints with 5th best yardage differential in NFL (+380)
Saints off a road loss: 21-5 ATS [from 9/24/2007]
Saints at home
Last 20 games under Coach Payton at home
Saints have lost ONLY ONCE against the spread (18-1-1)
That loss was Week 5 vs. Tampa
First home ATS loss with Payton since 2010 season!
Saints have won and covered 10 straight primetime home games..
Under Coach Payton: 25-15-1 ATS last 41 games
Coach Payton off a loss: 19-7 ATS
Saints +3.1 NET PR L4 vs season. Public perception is that the season is over for N.O.
Saints -26 vs closing # last 4.
Saints -39 vs closing number on season, a +13 increase shows that they are starting to outperform the spread.

GB +1.9 NET PR L4 vs season. GB on 4 game ATS win streak posting a +59 against the closing number. Only other team to win 4 ATS (SD), posted a -4 vs the closing number in game 5. Numbers point to GB being OVERVALUED against the number.

2T parlay: Ten/Hou UN 43 and NO -2 risking 2 to win 4.8

JETS -3 (1.25)
My line: Jets -4

Jets FIRST 1-6 teams to be favored over winning team(database goes back 25 years)
Every other 1-6 team playing a winning team has been 4 point underdogs or more.
Harvin trade likely not a big deal on the field(expected to be limited to 25-30 snaps this week)
but the positive emotion that “management is still trying”should add to the team’s effort level in the short-term.
Jets extra rest off Thurs game.
Jets -2.6 NET PR L4 vs season PR. (Det, @SD, Den, @ NE, Combined PR +27.52), Jets -32 v closing # L4, covered wk7 by +6.5 vs NE.

Bills lost top two RBs to injury last week:
Must reply upon Bryce Brown (0 carries this season) and Anthony Dixon (14 carries this season before last week; averaged 74 yards PER SEASON the prior three seasons).
Without running backs, Orton will likely need to be more than a game manager. Jets front 7 will be able to tee off against Orton, with Buffalo running threat hampered.
Orton’s last 34 starts: 10-24 straight-up.
Bills -2 turnovers vs Vikings (yet Buf won the game)
Since 1989, NFL teams -2 turnovers have won only 18% of games.
Buf +0.3 PR L4 compared to season. Buf -17 vs closing line L4. +6.5 on the year. Lost last two ATS by -16 (vs NE) and -5.5 last week vs Minny, a game they should have lost.


Checking inactives, likely be back with more plays.

Good luck.

 

[smh212]

JACKSONVILLE +7 (1.25)
My line: Mia -5.5

Unfamiliar territory for Mia, Miami biggest road favorite since 2008. Mia mindset? GB and CHI last two weeks, SD and DET after Jax.
Dolphins Stats Better than many realize
Miami rushing offense: #4
Miami defense: #4
Miami passing defense (yards per attempt): #1
Mia +1.4 NET L4 PR compared to season. PR higher than NE on season. Mia +61 yardage diff L4 (6[SUP]th[/SUP] overall). +34.5 vs closing # L4. -8 on the season. Mia due for a regression

Jags D has held opposing offenses to 2 touchdowns the last 3 games. In the four games priors, Jags yielded 38 points per game. Young players starting to better understand the defensive system. That said, there were a few Jags defensive injuries late in last week’s game (most notably the underrated Paul Posluszny).
Jax highest NET PR increase over L4 at +9.7 (next closest is +4.4). L4, Jax 3-1 ATS, and +20.5 vs closing #, culminating in a +22 last week. On season, team is -59 vs closing number. Line using season PR: Mia -10. Line using L4 Mia -3.5.
Jax covered 3 straight. 9 teams have covered 3 or more this year. Average performance against the closing number in the fourth game is -3.1. Jags – NFL teams off first win after being 0-6 or worse: 12-2 ATS their next game.

2T KC -1 and PHILA +7 (2)

 

[smh212]

Vent

I have lost in a bet in every way you can think of this year. Whether it's a meaningless touchdown with 20 seconds left to push a game over the total (See Tenny today), or a pick 6 at the end of the game to either beat me ATS or on the total (this happened 3 times in week 6 to me), or a team scores two defensive TD's (see Jacksonville).

Yes, I have seen it all. Not only is depleting my bankroll, it is destroying my confidence, to the point of saying fuck it.

Saints fail to cover tonight, and my season will end in Week 8. Will take my remaining BR and roll it into the NBA.

Can't wait to see how I get fuck on the Eagles teaser today.

Fuck the world.

:enraged:

 

[TreyDawg]

Know the feelin well. It sucks fo sho. You'll bounce back bro. GL on the big play on the Saints

 

[P-Unit]

Nice work on the Teaser. never in doubt. Let's get the NO cash tonight buddy.