Throwback420
Diehard L.A. fan
Last week started out like shit but finished solid with both primetime games. Now 6-1 on Mnf ats. Last week the under dogs didnt come through for me. I tried to be smart on the redskin and the titan game by taking the ml instead of the +3 ans lose both by 3 when both looked solid at halftime, ruined the week Anyway onto this week dont like that many games. I like betting underdogs and most the underdogs I see this week I don't really feel like most these teams have chances to win su, and thats one main thing I look at when I ber a underdog. Im don't reallt like betting high faves either so i will have to do some parlay or teaser or something with some of these teams...
NFL WEEK 7:
Vikings +10 and ML @ Dallas - Ok the biggest match up in this game will be each teams strengths. The Vikings biggest strength on offense is they pound the rock (170 yds a game) they use a 2 headed monster in Taylor and AD and have that monster O-Line straight power football. The cowboys biggest strength on defense is their rush defense (79 yds a game). This will be a big test for the Rookie sensation Adrian "All Day" Peterson against a stout rush defense but he lives for these moments and he has had his share of big games in Texas his home state, I look for the kid to make a huge statement. The cowboys defense has shown to be some what weak in their pass defense. So Tavaris Jackson must manage the game well and not make those rookie mistakes when he has the chance or the Vikings need to pass the ball. I really think that the Vikings offense can take it to this defense and wear them down as the game goes. Tavaris Jackson will be a big key and Im will to take the risk on the kid to make some plays against this secondary. Last week the kid was 9-23 -136 yds and 1 td. That td was a 60 pass to Williamson. The kid must play better than he did last week he did solid against the bears. On the other side of the ball the Vikings have been solid especially against the run but as of late they now have givin up the most passing yards in the NFC. They must fix this because Romo has the most TD passes in the nfc. One reason for the secondar problems is they have been generating little pass rush.The vikings defense can handle the 2 headed rb the cowboys have they only allow 66 yds a game. They have to really focus on how to shut down Romo and I think the secondary can give him a hard time. the defense has 7 int's 13 sacks and 9 fumble recoveries on the year they have show to make big plays and I expect them to get a gew this weekend and help keep the score close. I also hope for the Vikings to move the chains and try to win the T.O.P so they wont give the Romo and the cowboys many chances on offense. I think the score will be close all game and If Tavaris plays above expectations I think the Vikings can pull the upset...
Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0
Vikings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings against Dallas.
Titans -1 @ Houston - *BIG PLAY WITH YOUNG, SMALL PLAY without him
Rams +9 and ML @ Seattle -
Ravens -3 @ Buffalo - Ok some things to look at coming into this game Boller will be starting, He has been alright so far on the year when he has played he's 2-0 on the year when he has started. CB McAlister is out, Heap is injured and a gameday decesion. McGahee comes back to Buffalo the team that drafted him should be a fun game to watch ....
Ok the Bills are coming off the bye, you know they are working on ways to score some points. The Bills forced 6 turnovers against the Cowboys and the Offense only managed a FG. During that game it was as If they wouldnt open up the offense for rookie Edwards all he did was screen plays and short passes. Their running game has been solid but but nothing special. Rookie Marshawn Lynch has been running hard all year and is the 2nd rookie rb in yardage. The O-line tends to give up sacks(13) especially the RT Walker. This offense being so young doesnt help that it Faces a veteran defense sunday. The Ravens defense has not been what it has been in years past but Its still solid and better than most nfl teams defenses. They only give up 66 yds a game rushing and I think Rookie Lynch will have a hard time running. So their is going to be alot of pressure on Edwards in this game to make some plays. I just cant see a very young offense scoring much on this veteran defense, I think it can be ugly for the Rookie QB. The Ravens will have shut down the Bills ST McGee is one of the best returners in the nfl, the Ravens cant let him beat them. On the Ravens Offense I think Willis is up to the challenge of facing his former team they have been giving up 133 rushing yards a game, So I think McGahee could have a big game. The Bills corners are solid so Boller must pick his spots and not make bad throws. The Bills front 4 can put pressure so the Ravens young O-line must give Boller time to make plays. I know this is a big public play but IMHO I dont see how the Bills will put up points on this team unless they force 6 turnovers and score on defense and ST like they did against the cowboys, I dont see how they keep up with a Hungry team trying to get a win before the Bye week.I think McGahee runs wild and his teamates feed off of him and the Ravens win convincingly, I'll take my chances on what looks like a sucker bet and public play ....
Ravens are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0
Lions -2.5 vs The Bucs - Coach Marenelli gets to coach against his former team for the 1st time. ok the main thing on this game is how will the defense of the Lions will play. They have been giving up 31 pts a game so you have to think they worked on some things during the bye week. First off Garcia has not made many mistakes this year he is yet to throw a Int. On the other hand the Lions defense has forced 9 Ints, 14 sacks and 13 fumble recoveries on the year so maybe they can force Garcia into a mistake or two. The lions have to play tight against Galloway he is the bucs main threat, Fernando Bryant has all the tools to stop him and shut him down. The bucs picked up Michael Bennet from the Chiefs before the trade deadline but I dont think he will be much of a threat in this game. Anyways the Lions havent been to bad on rush defense giving up 115 yds a game but only 96 yards a game at home. So I dont think Bucs will run well. On the other side of the ball you have to think Marenelli has a slight edge seeing that he knows the basic's of the Tampa 2 defense seeing he used to coach for the Bucs, you know him and Martz have some Ideas on how to attack this defense. It doesnt help that they have had 2 week to prepare. Kevin Jones starts a RB for the Lions and he is a big upgrade over Bell, he will also get more carries as Bell is now the 3rd string back. I think you can beat this defense by passing and thats what the Lions do best. Kerry Collins showed late in the game last week that you can throw the ball on the Bucs defense you know Kitna can do even better. I can see the Lions putting up some big points and Im not so sure the Bucs can keep up. I see the Lions will by atleast a TD as they look to get their offense back on track coming off the bye ...
Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss
Raiders -2 vs The Chiefs -
Jets +6 and ML @ Natti - First off I didnt expect both these team to only have one win each going into this game, expected much more from these teams. The Jets are coming off a close home loss to the Iggles they were a 4th and goal play away from OT in that game. The Bengals are coming off getting beatdown at Arrowhead. If I had to pick a better overall team and which team has a better chance at making a run end the year I would pick the Jets. They have a better defense , ST and O-Line. There is no reason why the Jets shouldnt keep this game close. One of the Jets main problem this year has been being able to score pts.They only average 17 pts a game but they are in luck this week as they face the Bengals defense who have been well below average this year on defense they are giving up 31 pts a game they also give up 146 rushing yards a game which should be good for Thomas Jones who is coming off a solid game against the Eagles 24 carries for 130 yards. The bengals do have playmakers in their secondary so Chad will have to manage the game well and not turn the ball over like he has in past games. Their is no reason to think that the Jets will have trouble putting up points on this defense they have 2 nice rb's and wr's can make big plays the bigger challenge is on the other side of the ball. The Jets must pressure and get to Palmer and not let the Bengals passing game beat them. The Chiefs showed last week that the Bengals O-line is struggling. The jets only have have a low 6 sacks this year so they must improve and Blitz Palmer and Shaun Ellis must step his game up. I dont think this defense can stop the Bengals offense but I think they can get their share of stops and Big plays. One thing to keep a eye on is rookie cb Revis to see how he matches up against pro bowl caliber wr's TJ and CJ. He has held his own this year but this is a big challenge and I hope he dont make mistakes. I think this is going to be one of those back and forth games which the winner will be who ever gets a big stop or make a big play. I will take my chances with the Jets +6 and ML as I see it as value. I thought this game would be around -2 or -3 for the Bengals. Should be a big game for both teams must win. I will go with the team with the better running game and defense ...
Jets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss
Denver +3.5 and or ML vs Steelers -OK first off this is similar to last week's snf game as where you look at all the numbers and It clearly points to one team and its kind of hard to justify going the other way, last week it looked as if on paper the Seahawhs should have rolled the saints but it was the other way around. This game is somewhat the same if you look at the numbers The Steelers look like they should run all over this Bronco's team and beat them easily but I dont see it ..... (not finished)
Jax ML vs Colts -
* like Wash and Gmen but not the high line
* leans need to look into more - atl , mia , rams
2007 NFL YTD:
ATS : 29-25-6 (+2.00 units)
Underdog ML : 12-26 (+10.58 units)
2nd Half plays. 5-3 ( -2.20 units)
parlays 2-6 (-1.48 units)
NFL WEEK 7:
Vikings +10 and ML @ Dallas - Ok the biggest match up in this game will be each teams strengths. The Vikings biggest strength on offense is they pound the rock (170 yds a game) they use a 2 headed monster in Taylor and AD and have that monster O-Line straight power football. The cowboys biggest strength on defense is their rush defense (79 yds a game). This will be a big test for the Rookie sensation Adrian "All Day" Peterson against a stout rush defense but he lives for these moments and he has had his share of big games in Texas his home state, I look for the kid to make a huge statement. The cowboys defense has shown to be some what weak in their pass defense. So Tavaris Jackson must manage the game well and not make those rookie mistakes when he has the chance or the Vikings need to pass the ball. I really think that the Vikings offense can take it to this defense and wear them down as the game goes. Tavaris Jackson will be a big key and Im will to take the risk on the kid to make some plays against this secondary. Last week the kid was 9-23 -136 yds and 1 td. That td was a 60 pass to Williamson. The kid must play better than he did last week he did solid against the bears. On the other side of the ball the Vikings have been solid especially against the run but as of late they now have givin up the most passing yards in the NFC. They must fix this because Romo has the most TD passes in the nfc. One reason for the secondar problems is they have been generating little pass rush.The vikings defense can handle the 2 headed rb the cowboys have they only allow 66 yds a game. They have to really focus on how to shut down Romo and I think the secondary can give him a hard time. the defense has 7 int's 13 sacks and 9 fumble recoveries on the year they have show to make big plays and I expect them to get a gew this weekend and help keep the score close. I also hope for the Vikings to move the chains and try to win the T.O.P so they wont give the Romo and the cowboys many chances on offense. I think the score will be close all game and If Tavaris plays above expectations I think the Vikings can pull the upset...
Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0
Vikings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings against Dallas.
Titans -1 @ Houston - *BIG PLAY WITH YOUNG, SMALL PLAY without him
Rams +9 and ML @ Seattle -
Ravens -3 @ Buffalo - Ok some things to look at coming into this game Boller will be starting, He has been alright so far on the year when he has played he's 2-0 on the year when he has started. CB McAlister is out, Heap is injured and a gameday decesion. McGahee comes back to Buffalo the team that drafted him should be a fun game to watch ....
Ok the Bills are coming off the bye, you know they are working on ways to score some points. The Bills forced 6 turnovers against the Cowboys and the Offense only managed a FG. During that game it was as If they wouldnt open up the offense for rookie Edwards all he did was screen plays and short passes. Their running game has been solid but but nothing special. Rookie Marshawn Lynch has been running hard all year and is the 2nd rookie rb in yardage. The O-line tends to give up sacks(13) especially the RT Walker. This offense being so young doesnt help that it Faces a veteran defense sunday. The Ravens defense has not been what it has been in years past but Its still solid and better than most nfl teams defenses. They only give up 66 yds a game rushing and I think Rookie Lynch will have a hard time running. So their is going to be alot of pressure on Edwards in this game to make some plays. I just cant see a very young offense scoring much on this veteran defense, I think it can be ugly for the Rookie QB. The Ravens will have shut down the Bills ST McGee is one of the best returners in the nfl, the Ravens cant let him beat them. On the Ravens Offense I think Willis is up to the challenge of facing his former team they have been giving up 133 rushing yards a game, So I think McGahee could have a big game. The Bills corners are solid so Boller must pick his spots and not make bad throws. The Bills front 4 can put pressure so the Ravens young O-line must give Boller time to make plays. I know this is a big public play but IMHO I dont see how the Bills will put up points on this team unless they force 6 turnovers and score on defense and ST like they did against the cowboys, I dont see how they keep up with a Hungry team trying to get a win before the Bye week.I think McGahee runs wild and his teamates feed off of him and the Ravens win convincingly, I'll take my chances on what looks like a sucker bet and public play ....
Ravens are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0
Lions -2.5 vs The Bucs - Coach Marenelli gets to coach against his former team for the 1st time. ok the main thing on this game is how will the defense of the Lions will play. They have been giving up 31 pts a game so you have to think they worked on some things during the bye week. First off Garcia has not made many mistakes this year he is yet to throw a Int. On the other hand the Lions defense has forced 9 Ints, 14 sacks and 13 fumble recoveries on the year so maybe they can force Garcia into a mistake or two. The lions have to play tight against Galloway he is the bucs main threat, Fernando Bryant has all the tools to stop him and shut him down. The bucs picked up Michael Bennet from the Chiefs before the trade deadline but I dont think he will be much of a threat in this game. Anyways the Lions havent been to bad on rush defense giving up 115 yds a game but only 96 yards a game at home. So I dont think Bucs will run well. On the other side of the ball you have to think Marenelli has a slight edge seeing that he knows the basic's of the Tampa 2 defense seeing he used to coach for the Bucs, you know him and Martz have some Ideas on how to attack this defense. It doesnt help that they have had 2 week to prepare. Kevin Jones starts a RB for the Lions and he is a big upgrade over Bell, he will also get more carries as Bell is now the 3rd string back. I think you can beat this defense by passing and thats what the Lions do best. Kerry Collins showed late in the game last week that you can throw the ball on the Bucs defense you know Kitna can do even better. I can see the Lions putting up some big points and Im not so sure the Bucs can keep up. I see the Lions will by atleast a TD as they look to get their offense back on track coming off the bye ...
Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss
Raiders -2 vs The Chiefs -
Jets +6 and ML @ Natti - First off I didnt expect both these team to only have one win each going into this game, expected much more from these teams. The Jets are coming off a close home loss to the Iggles they were a 4th and goal play away from OT in that game. The Bengals are coming off getting beatdown at Arrowhead. If I had to pick a better overall team and which team has a better chance at making a run end the year I would pick the Jets. They have a better defense , ST and O-Line. There is no reason why the Jets shouldnt keep this game close. One of the Jets main problem this year has been being able to score pts.They only average 17 pts a game but they are in luck this week as they face the Bengals defense who have been well below average this year on defense they are giving up 31 pts a game they also give up 146 rushing yards a game which should be good for Thomas Jones who is coming off a solid game against the Eagles 24 carries for 130 yards. The bengals do have playmakers in their secondary so Chad will have to manage the game well and not turn the ball over like he has in past games. Their is no reason to think that the Jets will have trouble putting up points on this defense they have 2 nice rb's and wr's can make big plays the bigger challenge is on the other side of the ball. The Jets must pressure and get to Palmer and not let the Bengals passing game beat them. The Chiefs showed last week that the Bengals O-line is struggling. The jets only have have a low 6 sacks this year so they must improve and Blitz Palmer and Shaun Ellis must step his game up. I dont think this defense can stop the Bengals offense but I think they can get their share of stops and Big plays. One thing to keep a eye on is rookie cb Revis to see how he matches up against pro bowl caliber wr's TJ and CJ. He has held his own this year but this is a big challenge and I hope he dont make mistakes. I think this is going to be one of those back and forth games which the winner will be who ever gets a big stop or make a big play. I will take my chances with the Jets +6 and ML as I see it as value. I thought this game would be around -2 or -3 for the Bengals. Should be a big game for both teams must win. I will go with the team with the better running game and defense ...
Jets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss
Denver +3.5 and or ML vs Steelers -OK first off this is similar to last week's snf game as where you look at all the numbers and It clearly points to one team and its kind of hard to justify going the other way, last week it looked as if on paper the Seahawhs should have rolled the saints but it was the other way around. This game is somewhat the same if you look at the numbers The Steelers look like they should run all over this Bronco's team and beat them easily but I dont see it ..... (not finished)
Jax ML vs Colts -
* like Wash and Gmen but not the high line
* leans need to look into more - atl , mia , rams
2007 NFL YTD:
ATS : 29-25-6 (+2.00 units)
Underdog ML : 12-26 (+10.58 units)
2nd Half plays. 5-3 ( -2.20 units)
parlays 2-6 (-1.48 units)
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rayer ) I hope Russell starts after the Titans beat the Raiders. Chiefs did nothing really all game but I will say the Defense is alot better than they have been in years past. Herm has his team playing well.
