NFL Week 7

[smh212]

YTD: 15-6 +12.01 units

OAKLAND +130 (1.5)
My Line: KC -1

Raiders season is on the line. If there is going to be a time to rally, now is the time. Yes Carr looked banged up, and yes they are under performing, but the season is on the line, and the game is in Oakland. Raiders have the talent, they just need to put it together.

GL.

 

[Metallica]

On the Raiders spread and ML. BOL to us.

 

[Hulu]

Nice to see you on it as well. BOL tonight

 

[smh212]

Lets do it fellas!

 

[smh212]

Margin Against Close (MAC)
The purpose of the MAC is to measure a team’s performance against the markets expectations.
The MAC system requires that a team’s MAC score is either + or – 40 over a minimum of 4 straight games. Teams with a cumulative +40 or greater are a PLAY AGAINST (FADE) team (+40 represents that they have outperformed market expectations by over 40 pts in their last 4 games). PLAY ON teams have a –40 or greater number over a minimum of their last 4 games, meaning they have been consistently under-performing against the market.

MAC Plays begin Week 6 in the NFL:

Mac Fades
Week 6: KC (+41) Play on PITTSBURGH +4 – W (SU)

Week 7: NO(+61.5) Play on GREEN BAY


MAC Play On
Week 6: (-50) ARIZONA +2.5 – W (SU)

Week 7: (-43) OAKLAND +3 – W (SU)

Week 7: (-42) CLEVELAND

MAC plays this week are Green Bay and Cleveland. Will be playing both - shopping for numbers.

 

[C-MAN]

Would have loved GB and Clev this week without QB changes. I understand the system does not account for these factors, but just unfortunate both plays involve teams with uncertainty at such a key position.

 

[Tito]

gl today smh

 

[B.A.R.]

:shake:

 

[Hulu]

Can't believe Green Bay has made it all the way down to 3.5. I was hesitant at +6 because I thought with the QB situation it may go to 7.

BOL today smh

 

[Metallica]

BOL today SMH.

 

[smh212]

Thanks fellas - system does not adjust for QB changes, but that's the point. Situational matchups matter, but they are factored into the line. It's never about betting a team, it's about betting the number. I made the Saints -2, made Tenny -4.

CLEVELAND +6 (1.5)
My line: Tenny -4

There is an ATS number out there concerning teams with 0 wins after 5 weeks and their record ATS. It's very positive, and it makes sense. Either way - what's the difference between Hogan, Kizer, and the kid that Hue Jackson drafted, failed to mold and get hurts when the wind blows? Answer: NOT A DAMN THING!

GREEN BAY +4 (1.5)
My line: NO -2

Saints dropped 50 last week, on a roll....but are they? I thought the 4th quarter last week said a lot. Now they go on the road, on grass, in rain, to a place where home-field advantage still matters?

CHARGERS +110 (1.5)
My Line: Chargers -1

I have the Chargers rated higher than Denver. Grading this game as if it's a neutral field - Chargers no HFA.

Good Luck!

 

[smh212]

Thanks Metallica.

 

[smh212]

BILLS -3 (1.25)