Colin Wynner
Pretty much a regular
Week 6 recap - the pool went a combined 50.3% but that was significantly weighted down by the 49ers, 3 points of CLV, dropping 553 entries, compared the the 11 entries that put their picks in and did not have internet access to make the change. Removing the 49ers, the pool 60.1% on the remaining picks, highlighted by the Bengals, Dolphins and Lions all covering. Looking for a slight regression this week.
Reminder that lines freeze Thursday around 10 MST.
Here are the week 7 numbers:
My Picks:
Rams -3 - I am shocked at the numbers above. This seems like a classic spot to fade the Steelers, cross the country, out of conference, home game with the Jags on deck. Looks like the pool figured this out as well. Uh oh!
Ravens -3 - Seems like the right spot to fade the Lions here.
Chargers +5.5 - There are movies that when I see on I have to watch, for example, Scarface and Goodfellas, I have seen those movies hundreds of times. I seems like the Chargers/Chiefs is the same way, Chargers play tough, take a late lead only to have Mahomes and company come away with a narrow win. If I didn't know better, I would Reid and Patty design it that way, as if they are intentionally making it look like the Chargers are close to them so that they keep Staley as the coach. That's genius of Any Reid, beyond our comprehension.
Eagles -2.5 - Same as the Lions, feels like the spot to fade the Dolphins. In general, I am skeptical of road teams in non-conference games. The numbers don't really back that up (roughly 50%) but it's about 45% for road, non-conference dogs of 3 or less, with a winning percentage of greater than 70 and the opponent is .500 or better.
Good luck this week!
Reminder that lines freeze Thursday around 10 MST.
Here are the week 7 numbers:
Game/Spread | Fav_Picks | Dog_Picks | FAV_Pct | DOG_Pct | Total Picks | NFL Rank | NOTE |
| Chiefs -5.5 over Chargers | 200 | 149 | 57.3% | 42.7% | 349 | 1 | Even Action |
| Lions +3 over Ravens | 76 | 253 | 23.1% | 76.9% | 329 | 2 | Public Dog |
| Dolphins +2.5 over Eagles | 150 | 165 | 47.6% | 52.4% | 315 | 3 | Public Dog |
| Bucs -2.5 over Falcons | 252 | 34 | 88.1% | 11.9% | 286 | 4 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Bills -8.5 over Patriots | 219 | 33 | 86.9% | 13.1% | 252 | 5 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| 49ers -7 over Vikings | 194 | 55 | 77.9% | 22.1% | 249 | 6 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Rams -3 over Steelers | 207 | 28 | 88.1% | 11.9% | 235 | 7 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Packers -1 over Broncos | 155 | 77 | 66.8% | 33.2% | 232 | 8 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Commanders -2.5 over Giants | 156 | 53 | 74.6% | 25.4% | 209 | 9 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Raiders -3 over Bears | 153 | 43 | 78.1% | 21.9% | 196 | 10 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Browns -3 over Colts | 163 | 30 | 84.5% | 15.5% | 193 | 11 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Jaguars +2.5 over Saints | 53 | 104 | 33.8% | 66.2% | 157 | 12 | Public Dog |
| Seahawks -7.5 over Cardinals | 105 | 33 | 76.1% | 23.9% | 138 | 13 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
My Picks:
Rams -3 - I am shocked at the numbers above. This seems like a classic spot to fade the Steelers, cross the country, out of conference, home game with the Jags on deck. Looks like the pool figured this out as well. Uh oh!
Ravens -3 - Seems like the right spot to fade the Lions here.
Chargers +5.5 - There are movies that when I see on I have to watch, for example, Scarface and Goodfellas, I have seen those movies hundreds of times. I seems like the Chargers/Chiefs is the same way, Chargers play tough, take a late lead only to have Mahomes and company come away with a narrow win. If I didn't know better, I would Reid and Patty design it that way, as if they are intentionally making it look like the Chargers are close to them so that they keep Staley as the coach. That's genius of Any Reid, beyond our comprehension.
Eagles -2.5 - Same as the Lions, feels like the spot to fade the Dolphins. In general, I am skeptical of road teams in non-conference games. The numbers don't really back that up (roughly 50%) but it's about 45% for road, non-conference dogs of 3 or less, with a winning percentage of greater than 70 and the opponent is .500 or better.
Good luck this week!
