NFL Week 6

smh212

smh212

Awesomeitus Degenerate
Sides: 13-10 +1.74
Totals: 6-7 -2.43
Teasers 3-1 +1.6
Props 7-2 +1.92
parlay 0-1 -.75
29-21 +2.08

Looking at my season so far, it's apparent I need to up my investment in player props. I allocated a small amount of funds to player props at the start of the season, because it was new to me, but given the performance, the fund will be increased. Sides are trending in the right direction, and I believe totals will get on track as I continue to tweak my formula. Teasers are on track, but parlays remain a mystery. Statistically, they are not a good bet, but I allocated some funds to them, so I will let it play out.

THURSDAY NIGHT GAME:

My line: Chi -9.5 46
My raw number: Chi -13
Strong Lean: NY GIANTS

On Thursday night games, two components that I weigh heavily are experience, and team coaching. Working off a short week, I like to back teams which the QB and HC AND HIS STAFF have been in the same position before. They know how to prepare, and what to expect. A coach that has not been in that spot before simply cannot expect to have his team prepared the same way an experienced staff will. That leads me to the Giants here, as they have been there done that. Moreover, they have all the motivation in the world, and the players filling in for the plethora of injuries this team has, have another week under their belt. It's tough to say what the Bears mindset will be coming off a bad loss to a very good Saints team last week. Will doubt set in? Will this thing begin to snow ball? We know Cutler is not the greatest leader in the world, and Trestman remains an unknown. As of now I'm leaning NY first half and probably the game. Going to watch the market before pulling the trigger.

Let me know what you think...
 
Thanks Steed!

Thurs Play: GIANTS +7.5 (1) and GIANTS +280 (.25)

Well, that didn't take long. Looks like my theory is shared. I grabbed the 7.5, and will bet my theory, and throw the numbers to the wind.

Good Luck.

:shake:
 
Good Luck. i'm not touching it. the only reason there is to take the Giants is because in the past they have been good. just going by this year, they are about as bad as the Jags.

I agree that the line looks high for the bears, but that means a no play for me...just cant play the shitty giants especailly on the road. GL though, im not on the other side so i hope you win (except the ML, dont need the giants getting any w's)
 
I enjoy reading your thread but I have to admit it seems contradicting in this one. You mention your systems, you are typically contrarian, you post your numbers and than you throw them out the window with some soft explanation that suggests Trestman is ordinary and some possible dissension that they lost to a top 3 team at home. This game seems evenly bet if not a slight majority to the Gmen. I trust Trestman and think they house this sinking Giants ship. So health tonight and I hope you trust your past approach going forward.
 
Johnny,

The numbers I make are cultivated not just from raw data, but include adding and subtracting points here and there based on subjective factors, situational factors, etc. As mentioned above my raw number was 13, but after considering the situation and subjective aspects such as the coaching experience on Thursday nights, I got to a 9.5. In my book, a 9.5, 9, 8, and 7.5 are for all intents and purposes EQUAL due to the unlikely event of a game lending on a 9 or an 8. Therefore, I would play the game at 7.5, but not 7 as that difference is too great. So, I wouldn't say I'm throwing my numbers out the window, it's just that this game has been hanging around numbers, that don't really matter (8, and 9). I'm interested in key numbers, in the this case the 7 (and at one point I thought the 10 would be viable).
 
Buffalo/Cincy

Buffalo/Cincy UNDER 41.5 (1.25)
My line: 38

Thad Lewis makes his second career NFL start Sunday against a defense that is good, but not as good as media would have you believe. Atkins is still doing his thing, accumulating sacks as he did last year (4 this year along with 13 hurries), PFF has him rated as the 6th rated NT/DT (+11.1). The rest of the D-line is having a nice year, and the depth is good, but it's the secondary that is this defense's weak spot, a weak spot that I don't think Lewis will be able to challenge. While Buffalo has seen a slight improvement in the O-line play, it has declined over the past 3 weeks with only Cordy Glenn showing improvement. In the end, I have Buffalo scoring between 10 and 17.

Cincy's offense has not been nearly as explosive as was expected. I'm starting to wonder if we've seen what Andy Dalton is and is going to be: An average NFL QB. The Bills have proven to be pretty stout against RB's and TE's, so I'm looking for AJ Green to get in the mix (I will also be looking to bet he scores a TD when the props come out), but outside of Green, there isn't much on the outside to convince me this team is going to put up a big number. My numbers are calling for a 21-14 type game, and I'm inclined to agree.

Will be adding through the day and into tomorrow.......:shake:
 
Sunday Card - Plays,Sides, Totals, Player Props and Survior Picks

Last week running through the card help bring some clarity. Doing it again this week.

Trend that applies to multiple games this week:

Winless teams (Week 6 or later): 63% ATS last 20 seasons

Winless teams (0-3 or worse) off bye: 27-10-1 ATS

Kc/Oak - My number is KC -9 37. Leaning to the 'under' here, as KC's defense has been outstanding, but is trending down as they are now allowing 6.2 YPP down from 5.7. Oakland for some reason has been great playing in KC over the years. First time division battles are always a stuggle, still the idea of teasing KC down to under "3" is appealing, but this game will likely get a pass.

Phi/Tb UNDER 45.5 (1.25)
My line: PK 43

TB has had many issues this season, but one consistent has been the defense, which has posted a solid 4.9 YPP for the season, but when taking into account competition and a couple of other key factors the other number I have for their defense YPP is 6.2, which kind of scares me. However, the Eagles defense, which has been up and down is currently in a good form, and facing Mike Glennon should help. They will be able to focus on Martin this week, as the Eagles DB's matchup well with the TB WR's. Lean to the BUCS here, if I can get a "3" at a good price. Tampa also falls into both relavent trends posted above.....waiting on that "3".

BALTIMORE +3 (1) and BALTIMORE +125 (.25)
My line: PK 48

Backing Balty for the second straight week. I have them ranked in the top 10 in my PR, and that's likely the case for the bets. Look for Suggs to wreak havoc on a banged up GB offensive line, that being said the Baltimore offensive line has been putrid when trying to run the ball, so Baltimore will have to rely on Flacco. Getting Jones back will help. Baltimore is a great home team, and I expect them to get the win here.

CLEVELAND +125 (1.25)
My line: PK 43.5

Not sure what Detroit has done to warrant being a road favorite. The Browns, winners of 3 straight are in top form, and Weeden should be aided by having Josh Gordon to throw to. Having Weeden in the game does give significant pause, but this a value bet, so I gotta roll w/ it. Calvin Johnson is again a game time decision for Detroit.

Car/MIn
My line: Min -1.5 44

Panthers: Road dog off road loss: 64% since 2003. Too much inconsistency from both teams for me to play this game. Line is right on IMO, and we will likely see a 2.5 on Minny, but I doubt it gets to "3", if it does I will jump on Carolina, but that's the only way I play this game.

Stl/ Hou
My line: Hou -7.5 43

Pinnacle offered us a look into their PR's when they opened Hou -6.5. They quickly fell in line with the rest of the market and painted the 7.5. Despite the fact that the Texans have out gained opponents by 653 yards on the season (no other NFL team better than +380), this line sit's at 7.5. I would have thought 9.5's would have popped up to discourage teasers from crossing 3 and 7, however, that has not been the case, and I think that tells you what the books think about Houston.

Pitt/NyJ
My line: NY -1.5 40

Game falls right onto my number, but Pitt falls under the two relative trends I posted above, and while they will not make my card as a straight bet, they will make it on my teaser of the week (posted below).

Buffalo/Cincy UNDER 41.5 (1.25)
My line: 38

Thad Lewis makes his second career NFL start Sunday against a defense that is good, but not as good as media would have you believe. Atkins is still doing his thing, accumulating sacks as he did last year (4 this year along with 13 hurries), PFF has him rated as the 6th rated NT/DT (+11.1). The rest of the D-line is having a nice year, and the depth is good, but it's the secondary that is this defense's weak spot, a weak spot that I don't think Lewis will be able to challenge. While Buffalo has seen a slight improvement in the O-line play, it has declined over the past 3 weeks with only Cordy Glenn showing improvement. In the end, I have Buffalo scoring between 10 and 17.

Cincy's offense has not been nearly as explosive as was expected. I'm starting to wonder if we've seen what Andy Dalton is and is going to be: An average NFL QB. The Bills have proven to be pretty stout against RB's and TE's, so I'm looking for AJ Green to get in the mix (I will also be looking to bet he scores a TD when the props come out), but outside of Green, there isn't much on the outside to convince me this team is going to put up a big number. My numbers are calling for a 21-14 type game, and I'm inclined to agree.

TITANS +13 (1) and TITANS +550 (.25)
My line: Sea -11 40

I've bet against Seattle a couple of times this year, including last week with Indy. I'm not buying Russell Wilson, whose regression this season has been evident in tight spots, and when pressure is applied to the pocket. I'm betting that Tenny wins the battle upfront with there D-line against Seattle's O-line. I expect QB Fitzpatrick to play well for 3 qtrs and then give the game away in the 4th. Still, the +550 was too good to pass up.

Jax/Den
My line: Den -28 52

Not much to say here. Value lies w/ Jax, and they will make my card, but not straight up. See my teaser of the week below.

ARIZONA +10.5 (1.25)
My line: SF -7.5 40

My numbers REALLY like the Cards in this spot. Kaepernick reminds me of Wilson in many ways, as his regression has been just as alarming. Palmer is no great shakes either, and the UNDER does have my attention. I really want a "42", but I don't see it coming.

No/Ne
My line: No -1 48

Saints are the better team, and I believe they can take advantage of the injuries to the DT's for New England. Still, there isn't enough value being offered on the ML for me to get involved. However, I believe there will be some player props that will make my card.

Was/Dal
My line: Dal -5.5 50

Game right in line with number. Wash off a bye, which "should" help RGIII's health.

Teaser of the week:

PITT +8.5 AND JAX +34 (2)

Waiting for the props to come up....will add to this thread when they come.

Player Props:

DeSean Jackson UNDER 80.5 rec yards (.5)
Doug Martin OVER 87.5 rush yards (.5)

Good Luck.
 
Last edited:
Not the week I was looking for. More losers than winners. Back to the board, but first need to put a box on week 6:

SAN DIEGO PK (1.25)
My line: PK
Raw number: Indy -4
tua
This game is very similar to the Giants game for me. The situational aspects outweigh the numbers in this case. Throwing the Jax game out, because of they are barely an NFL team, the level of competition Indy has faced has been high. They went out west in week 3 and beat the niners down. From there it trip to Jax where there was no letdown, just a beat down of a minor league team. Week 5 was a PHYSICAL confrontation where the Colts beat the other NFC super bowl favorite in Seattle. That was a physical game. Now they travel West again, making it 3/4 on the road against SD on MNF. SD, you will recall was the team that was surprising the league....till they lost to Oakland. SD at home on MNF, against a Colts team with Manning coming town next week with Denver has me on SD.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

rambler882
Tail or Fade | NFL Week 15
Replies
11
Views
532
rambler882
rambler882
rambler882
Tail or Fade | NFL Week 18 & Futures
Replies
13
Views
455
rambler882
rambler882
rambler882
Tail or Fade | NFL Week 8
Replies
14
Views
385
rambler882
rambler882
rambler882
Tail or Fade | NFL Week 3
Replies
6
Views
269
rambler882
rambler882
L
🏈 2024-2025
Replies
0
Views
157
Loves2kickass
L
Back
Top