smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
YTD: 11-5 +6.69 units
Only one play last week, figure to have more this week as some models kick in. Start off with some good information, which I've applied to my subjective handicapping.
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com...rt-questionable-doubtful-week-1012-story.html
Some observations from the list showing the percentage of players listed as "questionable" and "doubtful" who ended up active the week they were listed:
The data suggests and edge may be available early to mid week on games which are circled due to a perceived "key" injury. The Cowboys QD list is worth noting for now as through 5 weeks almost HALF of their QD listing failed to play. Therefore if the potential line moving injury is for a "key" Cowboy listed in the QD, there's a 47% chance he isn't playing. Yes, the total sample size is small, but one worth monitoring and getting in front of.
Additionally, the list gives a good indication of a teams health for the 1st 5 games of the season, but make sure you adjust for the listing team. For example, is anyone surprised that the Patriots have the largest number of QD's at 32? Probably not, but the fact that 37% of their listed actually missed the game, tells me that they are likely more banged up then they want to lead on. The QD listing as a smokescreen becomes more clear with this data.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Panthers have listed a total of 6 players as QD and 1 as doubtful. 5 of the 6 QD's played, leaving the Panthers with only 2 players being inactive on gameday who were listed. That was before Thursday night where they had 3 players leave the game with no return.
The FALCONS stand out as well - only TWO PLAYERS EVEN LISTED through 5 weeks - and both played...That one has nowhere to go but up (will be down Sanu and Upshaw this week).
Other teams that had good health per the data:
RAMS - Only 3 QD - inactives of 6 listed
BROWNS - Only 2 QD - inactives of 6 listed along with 4 doubtfuls - total of 6 inactives.
COLTS Only 2 QD inactives (9 listed) and 2 doubtfuls - total of 4 inactives
Handicapping the Week 6 Injury Report:
Giants are ruled out half their team. Landon Collins w/ QD - numbers say he will play.
Lions slapped the QD on Stafford, Ansah, Golladay, Lang, Wagner, and Washington. Washington and Golladay were inactive last week, Ansah, Lang, and Wagner were all QD but played. I expect all to play save for Golladay - who may be inactive because he's not needed.
Packers list Bakhiari, Bulaga, House and Montgomery as questionable. YTD 48% of Packers QD's have not played during their listed week (17 listed - 8 inactive). If House doesn't go, Packers are down House, Burnett and Kevin King in secondary.
Vikings down Bradford, Cook, and Diggs, but Bradford doesn't factor, Cook was out last week - Diggs is really the only adjustment. Nick Easton injury warrants more of a look as replacement , Sirles did not impress.
Others of interest, but running out of time. Last one - Baltimore. Baltimore has listed 13 QD's and all 13 played. This week Perriman, Jimmy Smith and Maxx Williams are QD'd - expect all to play.
Be back w/ some actual selections....
Only one play last week, figure to have more this week as some models kick in. Start off with some good information, which I've applied to my subjective handicapping.
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com...rt-questionable-doubtful-week-1012-story.html
Some observations from the list showing the percentage of players listed as "questionable" and "doubtful" who ended up active the week they were listed:
- Over HALF the league (17 teams) have not listed a player as "doubtful" this year.
- Of the 52 players listed as "doubtful" 0 have been active the week of the listing.
- Of the 52 players listed as "doubtful"; 53% of those players came from just four teams:
- Packers 10
- Bucs 7
- Bears 6
- Chiefs 5
- Patriots 32 QD - 12 INACTIVES (37%)
- Lions 21 QD - 6 INACTIVES (29%)
- Cowboys 19 QD - 10 INACTIVES (47%)
- Dolphins 19 QD - 4 INACTIVES (21%)
- Chargers 18 QD - 7 INACTIVES (38%)
The data suggests and edge may be available early to mid week on games which are circled due to a perceived "key" injury. The Cowboys QD list is worth noting for now as through 5 weeks almost HALF of their QD listing failed to play. Therefore if the potential line moving injury is for a "key" Cowboy listed in the QD, there's a 47% chance he isn't playing. Yes, the total sample size is small, but one worth monitoring and getting in front of.
Additionally, the list gives a good indication of a teams health for the 1st 5 games of the season, but make sure you adjust for the listing team. For example, is anyone surprised that the Patriots have the largest number of QD's at 32? Probably not, but the fact that 37% of their listed actually missed the game, tells me that they are likely more banged up then they want to lead on. The QD listing as a smokescreen becomes more clear with this data.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Panthers have listed a total of 6 players as QD and 1 as doubtful. 5 of the 6 QD's played, leaving the Panthers with only 2 players being inactive on gameday who were listed. That was before Thursday night where they had 3 players leave the game with no return.
The FALCONS stand out as well - only TWO PLAYERS EVEN LISTED through 5 weeks - and both played...That one has nowhere to go but up (will be down Sanu and Upshaw this week).
Other teams that had good health per the data:
RAMS - Only 3 QD - inactives of 6 listed
BROWNS - Only 2 QD - inactives of 6 listed along with 4 doubtfuls - total of 6 inactives.
COLTS Only 2 QD inactives (9 listed) and 2 doubtfuls - total of 4 inactives
Handicapping the Week 6 Injury Report:
Giants are ruled out half their team. Landon Collins w/ QD - numbers say he will play.
Lions slapped the QD on Stafford, Ansah, Golladay, Lang, Wagner, and Washington. Washington and Golladay were inactive last week, Ansah, Lang, and Wagner were all QD but played. I expect all to play save for Golladay - who may be inactive because he's not needed.
Packers list Bakhiari, Bulaga, House and Montgomery as questionable. YTD 48% of Packers QD's have not played during their listed week (17 listed - 8 inactive). If House doesn't go, Packers are down House, Burnett and Kevin King in secondary.
Vikings down Bradford, Cook, and Diggs, but Bradford doesn't factor, Cook was out last week - Diggs is really the only adjustment. Nick Easton injury warrants more of a look as replacement , Sirles did not impress.
Others of interest, but running out of time. Last one - Baltimore. Baltimore has listed 13 QD's and all 13 played. This week Perriman, Jimmy Smith and Maxx Williams are QD'd - expect all to play.
Be back w/ some actual selections....
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