NFL Week 6 Thoughts/Plays

Marlo

Check out my DAD BOD
59-47 +8.50

Houston -3 1-1 L
Situationally a good spot for the Texans, as well as the Dolphins. Dolphins come to Houston off to huge wins. Texans come in after 2 huge losses where they were in the game the whole time. Last week mental mistakes cost them a victory in against Indy. Crowd should be amped up for Houston. The Texans have 2 weeks of game planning to scheme against Miami's offense.

Jacksonville +3 2-2 W

Denver should be with out key players Selvin Young, Eddie Royal, and Tony Scheffler. This should allow Jacksonville key on Brandon Marshall. Of Denver's last 3 wins they have won by a total of 6 pts. This team has been on the right side of every bounce this year. Besides a hickup in the Kansas City game, which was a perfect let down spot for them. The Bronco's will have a tough time trying to run the ball today. If Jacksonville can get a similar pass rush on Cutler as they did against Pitt, they should be successful today. Key for Jacksonville is to establish the running game today, because there passing game has been very stagnant this year.
The Bronco's have been terrible against the spread at home in recent years, and that bode's well for a Jacksonville team that has been dominate ATS as a road dog. After starting the season slow, Jacksonville's offense has started to put some points on the board putting up 30, 21, and 23 points.

Jags in a minor upset.

Minnesota Vikings -13 1.1-1 L
Detroit Lions TT Under 16.5 2.30-2 W
This is a great game for the Vikings to establish there offense. They have had troubles moving the ball all season. Adrian Peterson has yet to go off this season. Bernard Berrien had his best game as a Viking in there win against NO. Alot of people will say Minnesota shouldn't have won there game last week against NO. Besides 2 Reggie Bush Touchdowns, and Drew Bree's stats, the Vikings def. deserved to win that game. Last week NO benefitted from great field position. Everytime the Vikings defense needed to make a big stop after NO first possession they did. There defense has been making big plays all year. Detroit is hands down the worst team in the league. There locker room is cancerous, and every thing I have heard today Rookie Drew Stanton will be taking snaps. John Kitna is out with a back, and there backup is out with a ankle. This should bode well for the Vikings as Detroits identity (passing the ball) has been stagnant this year as well (there averaging 190 yrds per game). Detroit also runs the Tampa 2 defense, thats the same defense the Vikings offense plays against every day in practice.

Vikings roll 28-7.

Panthers ML 1-1.1 L
Since there opening game where they gave up 24 points to the Saints, the Panthers have 17,20,9,0 points. In the Minnesota Game one of the TDS was scored by Minnesota's defense, and another was from Adrian Peterson's 35 yard run, when the Vikings had short field position from a fumble from there offense. Against Chicago Brandon Lloyd scored a 9 yard blocked punt. So basically there defense has given up 29 points in there last 4 games. Tampa Bay's offense has there own issues. Back in the meat grinder is Jeff Garcia, after Brian Griese is out with a elbow. Tampa Bay's offense has no big play capabilities, and opposing teams are realizing this. Carolina has stopped every opposing big name running back that has cross there path this year, Peterson, Forte, Turner, and Johnson. I don't expect Warrick Dunn and Earnest Grahm to have there way with this Carolina defense that is being compared to there super bowl run a few years back.

San Francisco/Philadelphia Over 42 2.2-2 W
Donovan can make apple pie out of horseshit. I know Westbrook is out, but Donovan has always been able to find other player to make big plays. Frisco is giving up 25 points per game. Philly's last three games they have played against Chicago/Pitt/Washington. All of the games are against tough defenses, time for both teams to open up and put some points on the board.

More to come :cheers:

Any questions regarding Minnesota please ask.

10-12 -.95
 
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Atlanta +3 1.1-1 W
Atlanta ML 1-1.25 W


Cincinatti +10 1.05-1 L
 
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With the Big O not even 100% and Stanton while talented but raw barely knowing the play the Vikes defense should feast here . Both DET WRs on the injury report as well . Expecting like 27-10 Vikings here .

One that flies under the radar IMO is UND 43 NYJ . This is the same total they had vs Arizona and Palmer is out . They have 2 RBs to rotate here with differennt styles . Looking for alot of small ball from Cincy and this defense has played well to date . Jets had some big plays vs Zona who was just lost that day and short fields from turnovers . Think before the pick 6 @ SD the defense hadnt scored in 2 years then had back to back games where it did . Also like +10.5 Bengals as Fitzpatrick has a start under his belt and 2 career road starts already in 2005 with a winless team as well . They played well last trip to Meadowlands and they just need to protect the ball.....:cheers:BOL
 
With the Big O not even 100% and Stanton while talented but raw barely knowing the play the Vikes defense should feast here . Both DET WRs on the injury report as well . Expecting like 27-10 Vikings here .

One that flies under the radar IMO is UND 43 NYJ . This is the same total they had vs Arizona and Palmer is out . They have 2 RBs to rotate here with differennt styles . Looking for alot of small ball from Cincy and this defense has played well to date . Jets had some big plays vs Zona who was just lost that day and short fields from turnovers . Think before the pick 6 @ SD the defense hadnt scored in 2 years then had back to back games where it did . Also like +10.5 Bengals as Fitzpatrick has a start under his belt and 2 career road starts already in 2005 with a winless team as well . They played well last trip to Meadowlands and they just need to protect the ball.....:cheers:BOL

Sport just heard that Orlandsky is in, either way your right the Vikings D will feast today.

I was going to be all over Cinci ML if Palmer was in. Once the news broke about the him being out, I watched the line jump up to 8, then 9 and now 10. They played well last week, and were in the game the whole way. You take away that huge TD by Owens in the 3rd quarter, and that game could have been different.

Will look at that total now.

Good luck Today, and once again yesterday you were right:cheers:
 
Sport that under looks good, got it on the uptick as well

Jets/Bengals Under 44 1.1-1 W
Skins/Rams Over 44 1.1-1 L
Indy/Balti Over 39 1.1-1 L
 
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2nd halfs

Bengals +6 1.1-1 L
Lions +7 1.1-1 W
Houston -2.5 2.30-2 L
NO -3 2.30-2 W
 
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Philly -3 2.2-2
Arizona/Dalls Under 24.5 1.25-1 L
Packers/Seahawks under 20.5 2.2-2 L
Philly/Frisco over 20.5 1.25-1 W
 
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J

Its tough to say on this game, San Diego will be without Chambers, so that gives NE's defense the chance to key in on one less player. The bye week was good to NE as it gave B.B. time to scheme for his new quarterback. Cassel is no Brady, but last game was the first game you saw him go for the big plays like Brady had. This week the Pats should will probably not go with the big plays and go with more shorter routes and/or pound the football. Chargers biggest weakness is the loss of Merriman. Teams have had the most success vs the Chargers doing this.

NE is only averaging 19 points a game, but you have to look into it a little bit.

They scored 17 vs Kansas City (brady got hurt)
They get the Jets for 19, first game Cassel is at the helm and BB is very conservative with the offense.
Next game against Miami I think was the wakeup call, they got beatdown and go into the bye realizing they need to change up there offense.

Alot of trends favor the over in this situation.

If you look at all of SD games so far, the least they have allowed is 17 to Miami, and 18 to the Raiders. I think NE has enough playmakers on offense to put up at least 21 here. Also from my days of having Moss on my team I know he loves playing in Primetime games, and he always has big games.

Tough total to figure out, but I would lean towards the over. The mere fact that SD defense has been suspect all year, and the fact that NE's defense can give up alot of points.

the last three games these two played, the regular season game last year went over the total, but the other two went under. Last years playoff game was the lowest scoring at 21-12, but SD defense was different, and Phil rivers was playing on 1 knee, and LT was out.

I def lean to the over here, see a 28-24 type game.
 
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