Colin Wynner
Pretty much a regular
Consensus plays in the pool went 7-7 in week 5, overall picks went 51.4%, as lop-sided favorites went 3-2 and lop-sided public dogs 0-1.
Lines freeze Thursday AM, opening the door for stale lines that are, as expected, exploited:
Here are the week 6 numbers:
Obviously the news about Watson broke after the lines were frozen and there are 533 people who realize 3 points of CLV in the NFL is good value. But this is a tricky spot as the weather looks to be less than ideal (rain/wind 12-15 MPH; gusts to 30 MPH). It wouldn't surprise me if the Browns muck up this game and kept it clos
Overall the number of lop-sided favorites this week (70% or more) is crazy. 10 of the 15 games are lop-sided, all are at 75% or better as well; I dug back through the previous years and haven't seen anything like this in the past. Let's just leave it at this if the 49ers cover the double digits, and the Bengals, Dolphins, Lions and Eagles all come in, I feel bad for slot players over the next week.
I hate being on the lop-sided games, even though I realize they are not a 100% kiss of death, I just don't like it but that is where I find myself - on the Bengals. I heard a little bit of love for the Seahawks this week, so I am surprised at the discrepancy but that -2.5 in the NFL is an elixir for bettors despite slightly better than mediocre results. Favorites of -2.5 regardless of location:
Profitable at 55.5%, so far this year, -2.5 favorites are 4-6.
My Picks:
Bengals -2.5 - maybe I am biased, because I am a Rams fan but I think this Seahawks is a fraud. Maybe the Bengals are as well but it seemed like they found something last week and Burrow is at least close to fully healed. And they did this last year, sucked, then were pretty dominate with a lone blip being that beatdown in Cleveland on Halloween.
Vikings -2.5 - just based purely on look ahead line of -4.5 last week and I know Jefferson is worth a 1 or so to the Vikings but still there is some value on the Vikings here.
Pats +3 - No reason other than I like to lose but feel like I am on the "right" side.
Panthers +13.5 - I doubt the recipe for sustained success is backing an over-matched rookie quarterback on the road against a high powered offense and rooting for a back door cover. But I expect the back door to be open in this game.
Good luck!
Lines freeze Thursday AM, opening the door for stale lines that are, as expected, exploited:
Here are the week 6 numbers:
Game/Spread | Fav_Picks | Dog_Picks | FAV_Pct | DOG_Pct | Total Picks | NFL Rank | NOTE |
| 49ers -7 over Browns | 533 | 11 | 98.0% | 2.0% | 544 | 1 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Bengals -2.5 over Seahawks | 218 | 40 | 84.5% | 15.5% | 258 | 2 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Chargers +2.5 over Cowboys | 121 | 136 | 47.1% | 52.9% | 257 | 3 | Public Dog |
| Dolphins -13.5 over Panthers | 236 | 17 | 93.3% | 6.7% | 253 | 4 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Lions -3 over Bucs | 198 | 41 | 82.8% | 17.2% | 239 | 5 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Eagles -7 over Jets | 197 | 37 | 84.2% | 15.8% | 234 | 6 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Jaguars -4 over Colts | 124 | 72 | 63.3% | 36.7% | 196 | 7 | Favorite Majority |
| Vikings -2.5 over Bears | 104 | 91 | 53.3% | 46.7% | 195 | 8 | Even Action |
| Saints -1.5 over Texans | 127 | 62 | 67.2% | 32.8% | 189 | 9 | Favorite Majority |
| Chiefs -10.5 over Broncos | 129 | 38 | 77.2% | 22.8% | 167 | 10 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Raiders -3 over Patriots | 120 | 29 | 80.5% | 19.5% | 149 | 11 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Bills -14 over Giants | 128 | 19 | 87.1% | 12.9% | 147 | 12 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Ravens -4 over Titans | 112 | 33 | 77.2% | 22.8% | 145 | 13 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Falcons -2.5 over Commanders | 92 | 51 | 64.3% | 35.7% | 143 | 14 | Favorite Majority |
| Rams -7 over Cardinals | 68 | 19 | 78.2% | 21.8% | 87 | 15 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
Obviously the news about Watson broke after the lines were frozen and there are 533 people who realize 3 points of CLV in the NFL is good value. But this is a tricky spot as the weather looks to be less than ideal (rain/wind 12-15 MPH; gusts to 30 MPH). It wouldn't surprise me if the Browns muck up this game and kept it clos
Overall the number of lop-sided favorites this week (70% or more) is crazy. 10 of the 15 games are lop-sided, all are at 75% or better as well; I dug back through the previous years and haven't seen anything like this in the past. Let's just leave it at this if the 49ers cover the double digits, and the Bengals, Dolphins, Lions and Eagles all come in, I feel bad for slot players over the next week.
I hate being on the lop-sided games, even though I realize they are not a 100% kiss of death, I just don't like it but that is where I find myself - on the Bengals. I heard a little bit of love for the Seahawks this week, so I am surprised at the discrepancy but that -2.5 in the NFL is an elixir for bettors despite slightly better than mediocre results. Favorites of -2.5 regardless of location:
Profitable at 55.5%, so far this year, -2.5 favorites are 4-6.
My Picks:
Bengals -2.5 - maybe I am biased, because I am a Rams fan but I think this Seahawks is a fraud. Maybe the Bengals are as well but it seemed like they found something last week and Burrow is at least close to fully healed. And they did this last year, sucked, then were pretty dominate with a lone blip being that beatdown in Cleveland on Halloween.
Vikings -2.5 - just based purely on look ahead line of -4.5 last week and I know Jefferson is worth a 1 or so to the Vikings but still there is some value on the Vikings here.
Pats +3 - No reason other than I like to lose but feel like I am on the "right" side.
Panthers +13.5 - I doubt the recipe for sustained success is backing an over-matched rookie quarterback on the road against a high powered offense and rooting for a back door cover. But I expect the back door to be open in this game.
Good luck!
