NFL Week 5

smh212

Awesomeitus Degenerate
Sides: 10-8 +.38
Totals: 5-5 -.92
Tease: 2-1 -.4
Player Prop 4-1 +1.00
Parlay: 0-1 -1.00
21-16 -0.94 units

Basically even, let's see if we can move forward.

BALTIMORE +3, -120 (1) AND BALTIMORE +125
My line: Miami -2

Much has been made about the Baltimore offense or lack there of. However, against Buffalo, the passing game has showed signs of coming together. Monroe is an upgrade over McKinnie, but I don't expect to see him just yet. The telling sign for me is that the Baltimore offensive has started to move in a positive direction with a 6.7 YPP, after bottoming out at 4 YPP. I expect a close game, but I believe the value lies with Baltimore.

The correction has already taken place on the total in the Tenn/KC game, so pass for me. I made it 38

Jacksonville was corrected to by number of 11, but I'm on the UNDER 41.5 (1.25). Jacksonville's offense has been horrible, and the only time the Rams offense has put up numbers is when they have been down 20 points.


COLTS +2.5, -105 (1), COLTS +125 and UNDER 43.5 (1.25)
My line: Indy -1

Wrong team favored. Through 4 weeks, the Colts have proved that last year was not a fluke. The offense has gotten better each week as they have adjusted to Pep's scheme, and Richardson will help that cause. They are now a power running team, and the scheme is finally catching on. The scheme helps the under play, but so does Seattle's pathetic 4.4 YPP. However, the Seattle defense is only allowing 4.5 YPP, and that's led to the wins (league average is 5.4). Lastly, we have the situation, which favors the Colts. The Hawks have logged a shit-ton of miles early in the year. They started in Carolina, came home for a breather against Jax, an emotional game against SF, then back on the road last week @ Houston and now back on the road again @ Indy. Their 1st lost should have come last week at Houston as Hou racked up 206 more total yards and a whopping 234 more passing yards (Sea managed 91 in a game they trailed). Today the ride ends. 21-17 INDY.

HOUSTON 5.5 (1) and HOUSTON +200 (.25)

My line: SF -3

Houston is trending in the right direction, despite the bad loss last week. SF is muddling. Can't get it going on offense, defense has some injury concerns. Would anyone really be surprised if Houston wins?

Still doing some work, waiting on late info. Be back later.

GL.
 
Thanks fellas.

Teaser of the week:

GB PK and CHI +8.5 (2)


Working on some player props.
 
Add:

STAFFORD UNDER 322.5 yds passing (1)

Caught a big break here as I was able to get this in w/ the Megatron inactive news before the book could adjust.
 
Add:

BEARS PK (1.25)
My line: Bears -2

Was waiting to see which way the line was going to move, now that it's moving toward my number I'm pulling the trigger.

Been getting the best of the numbers so far today, like to see it turn into some mints.

GL
 
Agree on Indy and Chicago and lean Balty. ALso got some of that GB/CHI teaser early in the week. Looking damn good now. GL today smh
 
Thanks Lex.

Last add for me unless I find some player props / team totals of interest:

Az/Car UNDER 42 (1.25)
 
MIKE VICK OVER 254.5 YDS passing (.5)

With 3 starters in the Giants backfield OUT, and the potential for a shootout, I like this,

Wish I could buy injury insurance
 
Thanks fellas. Pulled out a winning Sunday, got one for tonight.

JETS +10 (1.25)
My line: Atl -8

There seems to be a serious disconnect between the gamblers and the non-gamblers where the Falcons are concerned. Sites like ESPN, Fox, etc, likely have ATL ranked in the top 10 of their power ratings. I have them 14 and dropping in mine. When I look at this team, they just aren't very good. Roddy White is clearly injured, they have no running game, and the offensive line is a mess. The defense is inconsistent, and Mike Smith is a mediocre coach. To be honest if not for the "4" rating the Falcons get for home field, this thing would likely be under a TD. If Geno can find a way not to turn the ball over, the Jets have shot to win this thing. I think there is a correlation between the Jets and the under, and ATL and the over, and I still may get involved. Looking at play props now.

GL.
 
Two props:

Snelling UNDER 55.5 rush+rec yards (.25)

Rodgers UNDER 72.5 rush+rec yards (.25)


Good Luck.
 
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