NFL Week 5

[CapTwo]

YTD: 19-13 +2.5u

Week 5= 4-3-1 +1.3u

its a mothafuckin grind in the NFL, happy with small profits week in week out. no reason to risk too much in this shitty unpredictable market...
finally a big week last week going 7-2 and got in the black... going to be extremely selective this week as i hate this card.

Lot of inflated spreads, but just cant find enough reasons to back these big dogs on the road, except KC.
Also a lot of -2 to -3 point spread coinflips that i want no part of....
May add balty if i can get +3 though....

Buying the hook in a lot of these games, but thats just how it worked out this week.
In the long run, it pays off to get key numbers.....so not worried about it

Saints -3 (-115) 1.2u-- buying off with vikes +3 (-110)... losing the juice is fine by me, the more i look at this game, the more i lean minny.
and may add some minny ML tomorrow.....
so saints are NOT A PLAY anymore.

Chicago -3 (-120) 1.3u
Arizona -1 1.2u
Giants +3/Denver +7/Dallas -5.5 1.2u
Under 20.5 2H Pitt/Jax .6u

Denver 1H -2 [.6u]
KC +10 (-120) [1.1u]-- i thought long and hard about not adding this one too. KC eats dicks when theyre not playing in arrowhead. its just what they do. lesson learned!!!
Teaserr- Jags +1.5/Under 45---- [.7u]

Denver -3 (-120) .8u------ pushhhhh thanks to late backdoor score by tampa..

 

[CapTwo]

texans look like a solid dog at home, indy has had their struggles against the run and sanders is still out.... so slaton should have success.

indy off a byeweek worries me though.... theyve gotten a lot healthier on the offensive end. everyone is back. and peyton has had 2 weeks to prepare and re-develop the chemistry with his offensive unit. i think this is going to be a big turning poiint in indy's season

addai, utecht, and dallas clark are all going to play.... and now peyton mannings red zone options open up a lot more, which is where they struggled in.

line is BEGGING for indy $$$ though and i wont touch it.

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

nice job last sunday, cap.. witcha on da bears. GL

 

[CapTwo]

nice job last sunday, cap.. witcha on da bears. GL

:cheers:

Thanks grind BOL man, lets hope DA BEARS tear apart one of the three worst teams in football in this divisional matchup....

i dont understand the line movement down to 3 (at very heavy juice though) at a couple places??

this is a detroit rush defense that gives up 200+ a game on the ground....
forte should have a field day i think:shake:

a very solid and pressure-oriented bears defense will definitely force some kitna INT's as well... and hes playing banged up in the first place

 

[THESHOOTER]

yeah looks to a tight race for the #1 pick this year b/t det, stl, & cin

 

[Marlo]

You would bet against the Vikings. You getting me back after I faded you on that NE/Jets game or what?

:moose:

Like KC man. Played Miami already. That Chicago game is tough to digest, everything says they should smoke them. I think for some reason Detroit gets the win, but I will not be betting them because there the lions.

Agree this card sucks...

anything else on your radar, I have looked over most of the card...but haven't put much in yet.

I'm thinking about the Falcons ML (gulp) The Packers are not announcing there starter until 90 minutes before game day. Line opened at -7 and is now -3.5. I'm thinking alot of sharp money is on ATL this weekend. GB is banged up across the board. Just don't know if I can put any money on ATL on the road cuz I have faded them twice already and it was profitable.

If I were you I would start drinking its Saturday biatch.

 

[Retburj13]

:cheers: get 'em Cap

 

[CapTwo]

adding:

Denver -3 (-120)

off a tough divisional upset in arrowhead, which is a very tough place to come in and win in.... mainly due to the fact they turned the ball over 4 times.....looking to rebound this week

TB is going to have problems with the thin air atmosphere at mile high, they havent played in denver since 99 and its going to be tough to adjust. Alot different then playing at raymond james in tampa.

I'm backing them 1H as well because theyve been known to get up early alot this season at home and blow leads later in the game.
(bolts game, saints game...)

Had TB not come back and beat GB late in the game last weekend, this line would have been about Denver -5.5
Getting a good price on a over-reaction from last week IMO

The way to beat denver is to run the football and manage the game.... but im not worried about ernest graham and warrick dunn as much as i would have been against larry johnson who tore them up last week.

 

[CapTwo]

:cheers: get 'em Cap

:cheers:

Thanks bro. hope your sox pull it off tomorrow, i think im going to hedge some off my LA series bet w/ beckett, and if that doenst work theres always the chase system setup for game 4.

 

[CapTwo]

Like KC man. Played Miami already. That Chicago game is tough to digest, everything says they should smoke them. I think for some reason Detroit gets the win, but I will not be betting them because there the lions.

Agree this card sucks...

anything else on your radar, I have looked over most of the card...but haven't put much in yet

didnt even see ur post earlier u sneaky minny SOB:cheers:

u would play miami...theyre Yag and slippery u like slippery things too

denver and az ended up makin the cut, thoughts above

alot of people think detroit sneaks out a win in an ugly one this week.... i agree that it COULD be a good letdown spot for the bears after barely pulling off a win against philly w/ the goal line stand in a game they were outplayed... but theyre playing well and i see kitna throwing at least 2 picks against this pressure oriented defense.... turning into short fields and points for chicago.
this is also a detroit rush defense that gives up a ridiculous 200+ ypg on the ground.... FORTEEEE baby

:cheers:

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

we're only against each other on a couple...and with one of them (detroit), my side/team here simply sucks.

looks like a winning week, bro...and i really like that teaser. i'll be shocked if that doesn't hit.
i had problems with the tb/den game. just couldn't get a good feel for that one.

 

[CapTwo]

thanks fellas, was a good day in the +, coulda been better had TB not scored that backdoor TD towards the end for the push...
BUT thats where buying the hook comes in handy! i could have lost that one @-3.5...

added a teaser because i want action on tongihts primetime game.... big divisional/rivarly game for the jags who should be able to take advantage of a shitload of pitt injuries in key positions.

so far, on the road.... pitt has scored 10 and 6 points in 2 games.
now tell me with willie parker and mendenhall out tonight theyre not going to struggle punching it in in the red zone either?

jags +1.5/Under 45 for me, medium play... GL fellas.

also can someone talk me off minny tomorrow? sharps are hitting that line down for some RLM.... and saints rush defense really is a cause for concern.
i thought NO would be able to throw on that secondary and i still do, but not sure how the saints OL is going to be able to withstand that pressure and give brees enough time to stay in the pocket and get rid of the ball cleanly.

 

[CapTwo]

neither team wants to play defense in the red zone, which is going to be the difference in why this teaser losing

arghhh! should have went the other way w/over

 

[barmeezee]

question..ur plays are units like 1.2 or 1.3 risking. is that due to juice or are you playin those to win 1.2 or 1.3 units.. just curious cuz most play it even. like some teasers i noticed were .7 or .8 just curious why. thanks

 

[CapTwo]

question..ur plays are units like 1.2 or 1.3 risking. is that due to juice or are you playin those to win 1.2 or 1.3 units.. just curious cuz most play it even. like some teasers i noticed were .7 or .8 just curious why. thanks

yeah barm, a "normal" play would be risking 1.1 to win 1.
:cheers:

my 1.2 or 1.3 unit plays are RISKING 1.2 or 1.3u, to win 1.1 or 1 depending on the juice... the math doesnt come out perfectly sometimes i round up, sometimes i round down. im not worried about .05 units.
when you post dollar amounts people get mad, so i dont do that anymore

it just means its basically a standard unit play.... but im putting alittle more stock in a 1.3 unit play because i feel more strongly about it

teasers are usuually .7 and .8 you are exactly right- i did the same with skins and someone else in one last week.... i dont put much stock in to those things- you are risking 2 wagers to win one- just not a good gambling strategy... i only like them for certain spots

as you can see i will probably lose this particular one because neither team wanted to play D early on... and now the game is finally settling in to what it was supposed to be before the game started. too late though:hang:

 

[CapTwo]

i know its a bit unconventional with the 1.2 or 1.3 unit plays....

but i dont flat bet and in the NFL especially there are plays i feel alot more strongly about then others.

i probably should have set it up as the 1.2 or 1.3 unit plays to be risking 1 unit....
and the "medium plays" be risking .8u

and then teasers and ML dogs for .5units- it would make the math a lot easier....a good point u bring up bro and something i will look into for next season

 

[barmeezee]

right on.. like i say i was just curious not talkin shit or anythjing

 

[CapTwo]

right on.. like i say i was just curious not talkin shit or anythjing

all good bro your good peoples:cheers:

one day over winter vacation or something when i come back to nova we'll blaze up some richmond heddies and catch a gameopcorn:

 

[barmeezee]

yea def bring me a slice or two of that dank shit

 

[Marlo]

VIKES ML Max it