NFL Week 5 Thoughts/Leans/Plays
- Thread starter Marlo
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Marlo
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Random thoughts on the Vikings game.
If you can find a prop bet for Adrian Peterson's total yards this weekend I would look into that. The Vikings finally get Bryant Mckinnie back. NO rush defense is 20th in the league. AP has not had a break out game yet this season, and I could easily see him going off for 150-175 total yards and 2 tds.
Last weeks game against the Titans was closer than the score looked. Minnesota gave the Titans 3 TDS because of 3 turnovers on there side of the field. Berrien dropped a TD pass in the 3rd quarter that would have made the game 20-17. Vikings had zero pass rush in that game. Collins had a 3 step drop, and the Titans O-line protected him well.
With New Orleans offensive scheme's, expect the Vikings pass defense to get after Bree's like they did to Manning. Now the key here is for Bree's to exploit Cedric Griffin. He is by far are worst corner, and opposing teams have picked on him all year.
Both teams should score alot of points in this one. NO is a pass first team, and those are the teams that beat us, unless we find a pass rush or make a few big plays on defense. Peterson should open up the passing game this weekend.
Childress was killed by the National/Local Media for giving up late in the Titans game last week. He was quoted as saying he made a mistake.
Vikings will probably be without EJ Henderson on Monday night. He hasn't practiced a ton this week. This is huge, EJ is our defensive leader at Linebacker. He is our Ray Lewis. Watch out for this as it gets closer to gametime. This could be the key to Reggie Bush having a good game, and having a great game.
If you can find a prop bet for Adrian Peterson's total yards this weekend I would look into that. The Vikings finally get Bryant Mckinnie back. NO rush defense is 20th in the league. AP has not had a break out game yet this season, and I could easily see him going off for 150-175 total yards and 2 tds.
Last weeks game against the Titans was closer than the score looked. Minnesota gave the Titans 3 TDS because of 3 turnovers on there side of the field. Berrien dropped a TD pass in the 3rd quarter that would have made the game 20-17. Vikings had zero pass rush in that game. Collins had a 3 step drop, and the Titans O-line protected him well.
With New Orleans offensive scheme's, expect the Vikings pass defense to get after Bree's like they did to Manning. Now the key here is for Bree's to exploit Cedric Griffin. He is by far are worst corner, and opposing teams have picked on him all year.
Both teams should score alot of points in this one. NO is a pass first team, and those are the teams that beat us, unless we find a pass rush or make a few big plays on defense. Peterson should open up the passing game this weekend.
Childress was killed by the National/Local Media for giving up late in the Titans game last week. He was quoted as saying he made a mistake.
Vikings will probably be without EJ Henderson on Monday night. He hasn't practiced a ton this week. This is huge, EJ is our defensive leader at Linebacker. He is our Ray Lewis. Watch out for this as it gets closer to gametime. This could be the key to Reggie Bush having a good game, and having a great game.
Marlo
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Thoughts on the Packers
They have lost 2 in a row. This team beat Minnesota in rivalry game, and then beat one of the worst teams in the league at Detroit. They have lost 2 straight to Dallas and Tampa Bay. If you can stomach to bet Matt Ryan on the road ( I have faded him all year) then do it.
Packers are having issues with there running game. Grant can't hang onto the ball. There ranked in the bottom half of the league in running yards PG.
Rodgers injury has slowed him in practice this week.
There backups are both Matt Flynn and Brian Brohm, both rookie QB's.
There defense suffered another loss this week in Cullen Jenkins for the year.
Packer fans saw Brett Favre throw 6 tds last week (coles dropped #7). And after 2 sub-par performance by there team.......there are question marks.
They have lost 2 in a row. This team beat Minnesota in rivalry game, and then beat one of the worst teams in the league at Detroit. They have lost 2 straight to Dallas and Tampa Bay. If you can stomach to bet Matt Ryan on the road ( I have faded him all year) then do it.
Packers are having issues with there running game. Grant can't hang onto the ball. There ranked in the bottom half of the league in running yards PG.
Rodgers injury has slowed him in practice this week.
There backups are both Matt Flynn and Brian Brohm, both rookie QB's.
There defense suffered another loss this week in Cullen Jenkins for the year.
Packer fans saw Brett Favre throw 6 tds last week (coles dropped #7). And after 2 sub-par performance by there team.......there are question marks.
Marlo
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Interesting article regarding Seahawks/Giants game
The NFL probably should have considered moving the New York Giants' game against the Seattle Seahawks to the Bermuda Triangle on Sunday.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width=280 align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=adlabel width=270 height=10>Advertisement</TD><TD width=10 rowSpan=3><SPACER height="1" type="block" width="10"></TD></TR><TR><TD class=onav vAlign=center align=middle width=270 height=270><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#fcf5e5 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=center align=middle width=268 height=268><SCRIPT language=JavaScript> <!--// /*mag spot*/if (!vTag) {var vTag="ros;type=ros";}if (!random) {var abc = Math.random() + ""; var random = abc.substring(2,abc.length);}document.write('<script src="http://ad.doubleclick.net/adj/imu.vegasinsider.com/'+vTag+';sz=250x250;tile=7;ord='+random+'?"><\/script>'); // --> </SCRIPT><SCRIPT src="http://ad.doubleclick.net/adj/imu.vegasinsider.com/nfl;arena=nfl;feat=stories;type=psa;sz=250x250;tile=7;ord=6946793947145786?"></SCRIPT><SCRIPT language=VBScript> on error resume next plugin = ( IsObject(CreateObject("ShockwaveFlash.ShockwaveFlash.7"))) </SCRIPT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD width=270 height=10><SPACER height="10" type="block" width="1"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>It would have been a far more appropriate spot for two of the league's oddities to converge in this post-bye week for the teams.
The Giants (3-0) are one of the league's worst teams after a bye. How can one explain the 4-15 record, that includes a 1-3 mark under current coach Tom Coughlin?
The Seahawks (1-2) don't handle travel well, especially when the destination is the East Coast. Mike Holmgren's group is 1-5 in its last six trips, and 3-7 in its last 10 games away from home. The one cross-country trip this season resulted in a 34-10 loss at Buffalo.
``If I were a fan this one would be hard to pick,'' Giants defensive tackle Barry Cofield said, noting that both streaks are inexplicable.
Holmgren seemed to have fun when questioned about his team's travel woes.
``I'm not frustrated. What do you mean?'' he said playfully banging his fist on a table. ``It's something we know we have to do. You coach in Seattle, we're on the West Coast, you know you're going to travel. That's the deal. It is a frustration that we have not played as well as I think we're capable of playing at times on the road. That's the frustration.''
The oddities aside, this is a game that might be decided by the receivers - the addition of two for Seattle and the absence of one for the Super Bowl champions.
Leading receiver Plaxico Burress has been suspended by the Giants for missing a team activity on Sept. 22, the day after they beat Cincinnati in overtime. Burress, who blamed his absence on a family issue, is the team's deep threat and the top receiver in scoring position. He led the team with a career-high 12 touchdown catches last season.
Third-year pro Domenik Hixon will make his first NFL start, replacing him at split end.
``I am not worried about it,'' Giants middle linebacker Antonio Pierce said. ``If anybody has been watching whenever those guys get their number called - Steve Smith, Hixon, Mario Manningham if he is playing - all those guys are capable of putting up big numbers. They are all explosive. They all, I think, are pretty much itching for the opportunity to go out there and showcase what they have.''
The play of the youngsters and veteran Amani Toomer will be important because Seattle has had success stopping the run. It is ranked No. 4 in the league, yielding an average of 88 yards.
The Giants are averaging 157 yards rushing, which has allowed Eli Manning to pick and choose when to throw.
``They are putting eight guys up in the box sometimes where they are making you throw,'' Manning said. ``That is what we are going to have to do. We are going to try to establish the run and hopefully we will get that going. But if they are putting too many guys up there, then we will have to throw it, and we have to find completions and make some plays.''
The Seahawks have been running the ball better than the Giants. With Julius Jones posting two consecutive 100-yard games, they have averaged 166.3 yards on the ground.
Matt Hasselbeck and the passing game have only produced roughly 170 on average, but this week the offense gets back veteran receivers Bobby Engram and Deion Branch for the first time this season.
Branch, who had 49 receptions and four touchdowns in 11 games last season, is coming back from knee surgery. Engram, who had 94 catches for 1,147 yards and six touchdowns, is returning from a shoulder injury.
``They have had some issues there at wide receiver since the beginning of the season,'' Coughlin said. ``They have talked about that openly, so I'm just mimicking what they said. Now that gives them the balance they need. They are veterans and they know how to play. And so those two are back. So they will be at pretty much full strength.''
While the Giants and Seahawks have downplayed their problems with the bye and travel, a lot of New York players will be looking for a little payback. The Seahawks ripped the Giants 42-30 two years ago in a game in Seattle that was not that close. Hasselbeck had a career-high five touchdown passes, helping his team build a 35-3 halftime lead.
What made the game more memorable for New York was that former tight end Jeremy Shockey compounded the loss by saying Coughlin and his staff were outcoached.
``It's exciting for us,'' tackle David Diehl said. ``In '05 and '06 those five-hour flights coming home from Seattle were not fun. Those games left a terrible taste in our mouths, and now it is time to do something about it.''
Center Shaun O'Hara said it will be fun not hearing all the noise the Seattle fans make.
``My only request is that our fans return the favor and bring their noisemakers and do their part to get them to have 15 false starts,'' he said.
Backup Giants guard Grey Ruegamer smirked when asked about the Giants' bye-week blahs and the Seahawks' travel woes.
``It's poppycock,'' he said. ``You can look at stats and everything else. It's irrelevant. The game will be decided on the field.''
The NFL probably should have considered moving the New York Giants' game against the Seattle Seahawks to the Bermuda Triangle on Sunday.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width=280 align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=adlabel width=270 height=10>Advertisement</TD><TD width=10 rowSpan=3><SPACER height="1" type="block" width="10"></TD></TR><TR><TD class=onav vAlign=center align=middle width=270 height=270><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#fcf5e5 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=center align=middle width=268 height=268><SCRIPT language=JavaScript> <!--// /*mag spot*/if (!vTag) {var vTag="ros;type=ros";}if (!random) {var abc = Math.random() + ""; var random = abc.substring(2,abc.length);}document.write('<script src="http://ad.doubleclick.net/adj/imu.vegasinsider.com/'+vTag+';sz=250x250;tile=7;ord='+random+'?"><\/script>'); // --> </SCRIPT><SCRIPT src="http://ad.doubleclick.net/adj/imu.vegasinsider.com/nfl;arena=nfl;feat=stories;type=psa;sz=250x250;tile=7;ord=6946793947145786?"></SCRIPT><SCRIPT language=VBScript> on error resume next plugin = ( IsObject(CreateObject("ShockwaveFlash.ShockwaveFlash.7"))) </SCRIPT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD width=270 height=10><SPACER height="10" type="block" width="1"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>It would have been a far more appropriate spot for two of the league's oddities to converge in this post-bye week for the teams.
The Giants (3-0) are one of the league's worst teams after a bye. How can one explain the 4-15 record, that includes a 1-3 mark under current coach Tom Coughlin?
The Seahawks (1-2) don't handle travel well, especially when the destination is the East Coast. Mike Holmgren's group is 1-5 in its last six trips, and 3-7 in its last 10 games away from home. The one cross-country trip this season resulted in a 34-10 loss at Buffalo.
``If I were a fan this one would be hard to pick,'' Giants defensive tackle Barry Cofield said, noting that both streaks are inexplicable.
Holmgren seemed to have fun when questioned about his team's travel woes.
``I'm not frustrated. What do you mean?'' he said playfully banging his fist on a table. ``It's something we know we have to do. You coach in Seattle, we're on the West Coast, you know you're going to travel. That's the deal. It is a frustration that we have not played as well as I think we're capable of playing at times on the road. That's the frustration.''
The oddities aside, this is a game that might be decided by the receivers - the addition of two for Seattle and the absence of one for the Super Bowl champions.
Leading receiver Plaxico Burress has been suspended by the Giants for missing a team activity on Sept. 22, the day after they beat Cincinnati in overtime. Burress, who blamed his absence on a family issue, is the team's deep threat and the top receiver in scoring position. He led the team with a career-high 12 touchdown catches last season.
Third-year pro Domenik Hixon will make his first NFL start, replacing him at split end.
``I am not worried about it,'' Giants middle linebacker Antonio Pierce said. ``If anybody has been watching whenever those guys get their number called - Steve Smith, Hixon, Mario Manningham if he is playing - all those guys are capable of putting up big numbers. They are all explosive. They all, I think, are pretty much itching for the opportunity to go out there and showcase what they have.''
The play of the youngsters and veteran Amani Toomer will be important because Seattle has had success stopping the run. It is ranked No. 4 in the league, yielding an average of 88 yards.
The Giants are averaging 157 yards rushing, which has allowed Eli Manning to pick and choose when to throw.
``They are putting eight guys up in the box sometimes where they are making you throw,'' Manning said. ``That is what we are going to have to do. We are going to try to establish the run and hopefully we will get that going. But if they are putting too many guys up there, then we will have to throw it, and we have to find completions and make some plays.''
The Seahawks have been running the ball better than the Giants. With Julius Jones posting two consecutive 100-yard games, they have averaged 166.3 yards on the ground.
Matt Hasselbeck and the passing game have only produced roughly 170 on average, but this week the offense gets back veteran receivers Bobby Engram and Deion Branch for the first time this season.
Branch, who had 49 receptions and four touchdowns in 11 games last season, is coming back from knee surgery. Engram, who had 94 catches for 1,147 yards and six touchdowns, is returning from a shoulder injury.
``They have had some issues there at wide receiver since the beginning of the season,'' Coughlin said. ``They have talked about that openly, so I'm just mimicking what they said. Now that gives them the balance they need. They are veterans and they know how to play. And so those two are back. So they will be at pretty much full strength.''
While the Giants and Seahawks have downplayed their problems with the bye and travel, a lot of New York players will be looking for a little payback. The Seahawks ripped the Giants 42-30 two years ago in a game in Seattle that was not that close. Hasselbeck had a career-high five touchdown passes, helping his team build a 35-3 halftime lead.
What made the game more memorable for New York was that former tight end Jeremy Shockey compounded the loss by saying Coughlin and his staff were outcoached.
``It's exciting for us,'' tackle David Diehl said. ``In '05 and '06 those five-hour flights coming home from Seattle were not fun. Those games left a terrible taste in our mouths, and now it is time to do something about it.''
Center Shaun O'Hara said it will be fun not hearing all the noise the Seattle fans make.
``My only request is that our fans return the favor and bring their noisemakers and do their part to get them to have 15 false starts,'' he said.
Backup Giants guard Grey Ruegamer smirked when asked about the Giants' bye-week blahs and the Seahawks' travel woes.
``It's poppycock,'' he said. ``You can look at stats and everything else. It's irrelevant. The game will be decided on the field.''
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Plays locked in
Dallas/Cinci over 45 1.1-1 W
Everything I have heard says Palmer will play in this one. Cinci's defense is attrocious this year. Dallas pass defense has been just as abismal. Last week Dallas only ran the ball with Marion Barber 8 times. I expect alot of that to change against a Cinci run defense that rates close to last in the league. If Palmer doesn't play, and Fitzpatrick is in, Dallas could cover this number by themselves. I expect a big bounceback game for Dallas, and that should come by scoring a ton of points.
Miami Dolphins +6.5 3-3 W
Reverse Linemovement, West Coast team traveling to the East coast for an early a 12pm game. Historic trend that favors Miami that is 22-2 ATS.
Dallas/Cinci over 45 1.1-1 W
Everything I have heard says Palmer will play in this one. Cinci's defense is attrocious this year. Dallas pass defense has been just as abismal. Last week Dallas only ran the ball with Marion Barber 8 times. I expect alot of that to change against a Cinci run defense that rates close to last in the league. If Palmer doesn't play, and Fitzpatrick is in, Dallas could cover this number by themselves. I expect a big bounceback game for Dallas, and that should come by scoring a ton of points.
Miami Dolphins +6.5 3-3 W
Reverse Linemovement, West Coast team traveling to the East coast for an early a 12pm game. Historic trend that favors Miami that is 22-2 ATS.
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3rd & Long
Tom Brady is a douchebag
On both of those, and a few more of course. :36_11_6:
Marlo
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Seattle +7 2.2-2 L
Seattle ML .50-1.25 L
See the article above about NY and there play after the bye week. Seattle was a team that needed the bye week more than anybody. Seattle has already traveled to the east coast once this year against Buffalo and lost. Plax being out is definately key for the Giants, but I don't think it will affect them as much. Giants will need to establish the running game in this one if they want to have success. I also have a strong feeling that Seattle can come into the Meadowlands and win SU.
Strong lean to the under here as well.
Seattle ML .50-1.25 L
See the article above about NY and there play after the bye week. Seattle was a team that needed the bye week more than anybody. Seattle has already traveled to the east coast once this year against Buffalo and lost. Plax being out is definately key for the Giants, but I don't think it will affect them as much. Giants will need to establish the running game in this one if they want to have success. I also have a strong feeling that Seattle can come into the Meadowlands and win SU.
Strong lean to the under here as well.
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Marlo
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Atlanta Falcons ML (gulp) 1-1.85 W
Atlanta/Green Bay Under 42 2.2-2 L
Yes I know that Rodgers is starting, but currently the Packers have a ton of issues right now. As I stated above. I have been the biggest advocate of fading the Falcons on the road, but I'm going with my gut on this one, as I have felt all week that Green Bay drops this one SU. Michael Turner will need to have a huge day, and Matt Ryan will have to find a way to not make any mistakes.
With Rodgers banged up shoulder, I expect green bay to run the ball more. Atlanta will do the same, Turner/Norwood should carry the ball between 30-40 times. I don't see Either team getting up by a ton here, so no need for either team to play catchup.
Atlanta/Green Bay Under 42 2.2-2 L
Yes I know that Rodgers is starting, but currently the Packers have a ton of issues right now. As I stated above. I have been the biggest advocate of fading the Falcons on the road, but I'm going with my gut on this one, as I have felt all week that Green Bay drops this one SU. Michael Turner will need to have a huge day, and Matt Ryan will have to find a way to not make any mistakes.
With Rodgers banged up shoulder, I expect green bay to run the ball more. Atlanta will do the same, Turner/Norwood should carry the ball between 30-40 times. I don't see Either team getting up by a ton here, so no need for either team to play catchup.
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Marlo
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Tennessee -2.5 2-2 W
I'm so impressed with this team, and will ride the ATS covering machine until the ship runs dry.
What Tennessee does to be successful
I'm so impressed with this team, and will ride the ATS covering machine until the ship runs dry.
What Tennessee does to be successful
- They don't turn the ball over
- They create turnovers
- They protect there QB
- They have a running game with Johnson/White
- Collins can manage the game and effectively lead his offense.
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Marlo
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Thanks LJ good luck to you as well today on all of your plays. :cheers:
illow:
Marlo
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New England -3 1.2-1
New England -3.5 1-1
Cassel may very well be playing for his job in this game. They get Maroney back in this game, which should take some heat off Cassel to carry the team. Moss seems due for a breakout game. Belicheck after the buy has had his team ready, and they won in convincing fashion. Belicheck is the king of schemes and should have his defense ready for this game. Strong feeling here that I'm buying NE low in this spot. What would this line be if Brady was playing -13? Classic overreaction in this game after the Pats got drilled by Miami. If you didn't think at some point in time during the year that was going to happen after what they have done in the division over the years your missing something upstairs.
Sullivan is still a work in progress. I think he holds on to the ball to long, and New Englands defense should be able to dominate them.
Big day out of Maroney and Moss today.
Pats 27-SF 17
New England -3.5 1-1
Cassel may very well be playing for his job in this game. They get Maroney back in this game, which should take some heat off Cassel to carry the team. Moss seems due for a breakout game. Belicheck after the buy has had his team ready, and they won in convincing fashion. Belicheck is the king of schemes and should have his defense ready for this game. Strong feeling here that I'm buying NE low in this spot. What would this line be if Brady was playing -13? Classic overreaction in this game after the Pats got drilled by Miami. If you didn't think at some point in time during the year that was going to happen after what they have done in the division over the years your missing something upstairs.
Sullivan is still a work in progress. I think he holds on to the ball to long, and New Englands defense should be able to dominate them.
Big day out of Maroney and Moss today.
Pats 27-SF 17
B
buckeyeburritos
Guest
like ur card a lot Marlo
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Thanks Buckeye Good luck on all your plays today.
Kansas City Under 14 TT 1.15-1 W
Big win for them last week against Denver. They always play Denver tough at Arrowhead. Carolina has stopped every big name back they have faced this year. I look for it to continue today. Def let down spot here for Kansas City. Huard much better than Thigpen, but can't see Carolina letting them score.
Kansas City Under 14 TT 1.15-1 W
Big win for them last week against Denver. They always play Denver tough at Arrowhead. Carolina has stopped every big name back they have faced this year. I look for it to continue today. Def let down spot here for Kansas City. Huard much better than Thigpen, but can't see Carolina letting them score.
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B
buckeyeburritos
Guest
nice call on kc tt
MeasyMoney
Give me Football or give me death
any play on the sunday nighter?
MeasyMoney
Give me Football or give me death
haha na. im actually jus doing way shittier than you can think of and need some insight with the night game. i dont waste my time speaking to people if i think they suck, even if its for fade material.
MeasyMoney
Give me Football or give me death
good shit...will be waiting to see what you pick. i like the jags as of now. still looking for a total play
Marlo
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Jags/Steelers Over 38 1.1-1
Measey
Jags have owned this series ATS as of late. Pitt's wins are nothing to right home about. I expect the steelers to toss the ball around alot. Big Ben may get completely abused in this game. Mewelde Moore is not a great running back ( I watched him for years in Minnesota)
I noticed the line got pushed up to 6, and quickly came back down to 5.5.
Jags haven't impressed me, and there secondary is suspect.
Jag's have allowed opposing QB's to have big days. I haven't been impressed with Gerrard at all this year.
I got nothing on the side....would lean to Pitt with the points, but historically Jax has been a great play here.
I am plaing the over.
If you believe Jax beats up on Ben, then I would lay the points with Jax.
Jax has to be able to move the ball on the steelers defense, if they do that they should cover.
Line movement in this game closely resembles the Skins/Eagles game this afternoon. Can the public/sharps etc be wrong twice in one day?
Measey
Jags have owned this series ATS as of late. Pitt's wins are nothing to right home about. I expect the steelers to toss the ball around alot. Big Ben may get completely abused in this game. Mewelde Moore is not a great running back ( I watched him for years in Minnesota)
I noticed the line got pushed up to 6, and quickly came back down to 5.5.
Jags haven't impressed me, and there secondary is suspect.
Jag's have allowed opposing QB's to have big days. I haven't been impressed with Gerrard at all this year.
I got nothing on the side....would lean to Pitt with the points, but historically Jax has been a great play here.
I am plaing the over.
If you believe Jax beats up on Ben, then I would lay the points with Jax.
Jax has to be able to move the ball on the steelers defense, if they do that they should cover.
Line movement in this game closely resembles the Skins/Eagles game this afternoon. Can the public/sharps etc be wrong twice in one day?
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MeasyMoney
Give me Football or give me death
good points. thanks for the info. BOL to the over. I am playing the over as well but more units on jags.
