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NFL Week 5 Pick 'em Pool Trends

Colin Wynner

Pretty much a regular
Pool went 54.9% in week despite the top 2 most played lop-sided games going 0-2 (Chiefs and Eagles); Rams, Seahawks, Vikings, Chargers and Cowboys all covered as lop-sided picks to push the overall numbers above the profitability line.

Here are the week 5 numbers:

Game/Spread
Fav_Picks
Dog_Picks
FAV_Pct
DOG_Pct
Total Picks
NFL Rank
NOTE
Bills -5.5 over Jaguars31843
88.1%​
11.9%​
3611Lop-Sided Favorite
49ers -3.5 over Cowboys26355
82.7%​
17.3%​
3182Lop-Sided Favorite
Chiefs -4 over Vikings20147
81.0%​
19.0%​
2483Lop-Sided Favorite
Ravens -4 over Steelers17175
69.5%​
30.5%​
2464Lop-Sided Favorite
Falcons -1.5 over Texans70172
28.9%​
71.1%​
2425Public Dog
Eagles -4.5 over Rams125115
52.1%​
47.9%​
2406Even Action
Dolphins -11.5 over Giants20616
92.8%​
7.2%​
2227Lop-Sided Favorite
Broncos -2 over Jets113100
53.1%​
46.9%​
2138Even Action
Packers -1 over Raiders11670
62.4%​
37.6%​
1869Favorite Majority
Bengals -3 over Cardinals10166
60.5%​
39.5%​
16710Favorite Majority
Patriots -0.5 over Saints9766
59.5%​
40.5%​
16311Favorite Majority
Titans -2 over Colts6293
40.0%​
60.0%​
15512Public Dog
Commanders -6 over Bears10146
68.7%​
31.3%​
14713Favorite Majority
Lions -10 over Panthers10126
79.5%​
20.5%​
12714Lop-Sided Favorite

I played the Jags, Cowboys, Steelers, Falcons and Rams so I am on the opposite side of the majority of the pool.

The spot is perfect for the Jags to cover that 5.5, Bills off that dismantling of the Dolphins. There has to an advantage to being in London for back-to-back weeks as opposed to traveling to London off three straight blow-out wins. Can we get the bad Josh Allen, please?

The 49ers/Cowboys should be similar to the playoff game last year, where the 49ers covered but it was a blood bath. The 49ers clearly look like the NFC's best team, I would love to see the Cowboys grit out a win here, so I can get a slightly better future number on them come Monday morning. I feel like it's a 3-pt game one way or another.

The Steelers feels like anytime you can get Tomlin off a loss as a home dog, you have to play him (6-2 ATS) but it gives you pause when the starting quarterback is announced as playing and the line moves against you.

I might take a bath backing Ridder this week and maybe I am not giving the Texans enough credit but this is the Texans - they are getting backed on the road in what is basically a pick'em game? I guess I will pay to see them win this game.

Rams and Eagles both coming off overtime games, I would absolutely hammer the Rams here if they were not undefeated ATS and didn't blow a 23 point lead to Anthony Richardson. Still this is more of a play against the Eagles than on the Rams - something looks off with them.

Good luck!
 
Last edited:
Yeah the 9ers line appears short to me. Must win for Dallas and SF hasn’t played even close to their ability but for some reason the 9er lines with cowboys are always short.
 
Interesting %s on Falcons. Worth noting, no team had a better attack vs SF last year than the Falcons did offensively. They absolutely ran over the 9ers and Ryan’s defense in this same building also early in the season.
 
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