smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
[TABLE="width: 645"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Sides 9-6 +2.41
Totals 3-2 +.72
Half 0-2 -1.66
Tease 1-1 - 0.40
prop: 2-1 +0.50[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
14-12 +1.57
Week 3 saw me get back in black. I really like this weeks card. Having three weeks of data has strengthen my database, and has led to my largest play of the young year.
ATLANTA -2 (3) BIG BET
My line: ATL -4.5
On the surface we have 3-0 team playing at 1-2 team. Atlanta has been trashed recently by the NFL pundits as a team that is under-performing and really isn't ready to take that next step. A closer look shows that the Falcons have faced the tougher competition (2 quality games to the Patriots 0), and their two losses at NO and Miami could have been wins. There is concern with the ATL's O-line, especially on the outside, but I'm confident that Ryan will continue to find a way to make it work. On the other side, the Pats have had a cupcake schedule that has skewed their numbers, especially on the defense side of the ball. Two victories have come against rookie QB's in Smith and Manuel. Both game could have been losses, mainly because the NE offense is NOTHING like it was in the past. There are rumors that Gronk and Amedola are coming back this week, but I believe that will have more relevance next week (if Amendola can make through this week) as neither player can be expected to be in football shape. That means more Dobson, Tomkins, and Edelman. If not for the schedule, NE would not be 3-0. You won't find many teams that average 4.5 YPP 3-0. Their defense 4.7 YPP is more of a function of competition than who they have played. My numbers say ATL wins this one 24-17, which leads means to my next play.
ATL/NE UNDER 50 (1.25)
My line: 44
I mentioned the Pats offensive struggles above, but he Falcons are not without their own concerns. Specifically, their offensive tackles have been amongst the worst in football. This means that Ryan will not have the time needed to allow longer routes down field to develop, which will lead to short passes. The Falcons offense has need 11.3 yards to put up a point, which is better than the league average. Their defense has forced opponents to gain 41.9 yards to score a point, which is outstanding. On passes that are in the air for 10 yards or less, Tom Brady has only been accurate on 73.3% of his passes; the third-worst rate in the league.
Hou/Sea UNDER 42 (1.25)
My line 40.5
Both teams allow below the league average of 5.4 YPP (Hou 4.3, Sea 4.4). Each teams offensive weapons are counteracted by the other teams defensive strengths. Both teams love to establish the run, and I think we will see alot of running and not many plays of over 20 yards, of which Schaub attempts only 6.3% of the time and Wilson 13.7% of the time. Wilson actually has had decent success with passes over 20 yards, but with Okung out, I would expect a drop in production.
Jax/Indy UNDER 42.5 (.125)
My line: 39
The departure of coach Arians has transformed this Colts teams from a chuck and duck team, to a team that is looking to establish the power running game. Bradshaw being out hurts, but they will have there new horse T Rich to ride. The Jags average a league worse 3.5 yards per play, so maybe they score 10. It's a possible trap game for Indy, so if they do fall into that mindset a close game will help the under. I don't think they do. Call it 24-13.
LIONS -3, -105 (1.25)
My line: Det -4.5
This is a game is set up for Detroit. Chicago has been winning with some late game heroics (Cincy, and Minny). Moreover, the Pitt game was a 27-23 game until Pitt self destructed. So while being 3-0 is quite commendable it help us snag some value on a Lions team that gets Reggie Bush back to help the offense. This is the only game where one team has a better YPP on offense AND defense. I like the lines to win convincingly this week.
I will back with the teaser of the week, and some thoughts later. Any questions or comments, I will be popping in and out today.
Good Luck,
:shake:
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Sides 9-6 +2.41
Totals 3-2 +.72
Half 0-2 -1.66
Tease 1-1 - 0.40
prop: 2-1 +0.50[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
14-12 +1.57
Week 3 saw me get back in black. I really like this weeks card. Having three weeks of data has strengthen my database, and has led to my largest play of the young year.
ATLANTA -2 (3) BIG BET
My line: ATL -4.5
On the surface we have 3-0 team playing at 1-2 team. Atlanta has been trashed recently by the NFL pundits as a team that is under-performing and really isn't ready to take that next step. A closer look shows that the Falcons have faced the tougher competition (2 quality games to the Patriots 0), and their two losses at NO and Miami could have been wins. There is concern with the ATL's O-line, especially on the outside, but I'm confident that Ryan will continue to find a way to make it work. On the other side, the Pats have had a cupcake schedule that has skewed their numbers, especially on the defense side of the ball. Two victories have come against rookie QB's in Smith and Manuel. Both game could have been losses, mainly because the NE offense is NOTHING like it was in the past. There are rumors that Gronk and Amedola are coming back this week, but I believe that will have more relevance next week (if Amendola can make through this week) as neither player can be expected to be in football shape. That means more Dobson, Tomkins, and Edelman. If not for the schedule, NE would not be 3-0. You won't find many teams that average 4.5 YPP 3-0. Their defense 4.7 YPP is more of a function of competition than who they have played. My numbers say ATL wins this one 24-17, which leads means to my next play.
ATL/NE UNDER 50 (1.25)
My line: 44
I mentioned the Pats offensive struggles above, but he Falcons are not without their own concerns. Specifically, their offensive tackles have been amongst the worst in football. This means that Ryan will not have the time needed to allow longer routes down field to develop, which will lead to short passes. The Falcons offense has need 11.3 yards to put up a point, which is better than the league average. Their defense has forced opponents to gain 41.9 yards to score a point, which is outstanding. On passes that are in the air for 10 yards or less, Tom Brady has only been accurate on 73.3% of his passes; the third-worst rate in the league.
Hou/Sea UNDER 42 (1.25)
My line 40.5
Both teams allow below the league average of 5.4 YPP (Hou 4.3, Sea 4.4). Each teams offensive weapons are counteracted by the other teams defensive strengths. Both teams love to establish the run, and I think we will see alot of running and not many plays of over 20 yards, of which Schaub attempts only 6.3% of the time and Wilson 13.7% of the time. Wilson actually has had decent success with passes over 20 yards, but with Okung out, I would expect a drop in production.
Jax/Indy UNDER 42.5 (.125)
My line: 39
The departure of coach Arians has transformed this Colts teams from a chuck and duck team, to a team that is looking to establish the power running game. Bradshaw being out hurts, but they will have there new horse T Rich to ride. The Jags average a league worse 3.5 yards per play, so maybe they score 10. It's a possible trap game for Indy, so if they do fall into that mindset a close game will help the under. I don't think they do. Call it 24-13.
LIONS -3, -105 (1.25)
My line: Det -4.5
This is a game is set up for Detroit. Chicago has been winning with some late game heroics (Cincy, and Minny). Moreover, the Pitt game was a 27-23 game until Pitt self destructed. So while being 3-0 is quite commendable it help us snag some value on a Lions team that gets Reggie Bush back to help the offense. This is the only game where one team has a better YPP on offense AND defense. I like the lines to win convincingly this week.
I will back with the teaser of the week, and some thoughts later. Any questions or comments, I will be popping in and out today.
Good Luck,
:shake:
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