NFL Week 4

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
It was a disappointing 1st two weeks to the niffel season, so I ended up not making any plays in week three. Combination of some strange outcomes, my PR #s seemingly being off, and simply not seeing things right. Not exactly sure what's going on, beyond that...but to be honest, taking last Sunday off absolutely saved me some additional frustrations and losses. Anyhow, it's a new week...time to refocus, dive back into things, and get this fuckin' ship turned around...so, as always, will update this 1st post as I make plays during the week.



Sun. 9/29
IND/JAX under 43 for 3/4
CHI/DET over 47 for 3/4
SD (+2) for 1
HOU ML (+100) for 1/2
TB (-2.5) for 1/2

Mon. 9/30
NO (-6) for 1



Week #1: 2-3-1, -0.60
Week #2: 2-4, -1.65
Week #3: 0-0, +0.00
YTD: 4-7-1, -2.25

Good luck this weekend!!! :cheers:
 
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IND/JAX under 43 for 3/4
CHI/DET over 47 for 3/4

kickin' this week off with a couple totals.

still working on my PR #s and so forth though, trying to make (more) sense of some of these outcomes/results. like i said before, had i played, week three woulda been a bad one.
 
BOL Yanks :shake:

TY, sir. :cheers:


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I usually never do this, but I'm gonna list my PR#s on the games this week. They're a work in progress. Yes, I'll keep testing/tweaking/etc. But let me know if you see any significant discrepancies with your own #s. In other words, as I "correct" my #s, I wouldn't mind some help/advice along the way. So here it goes...


SF (-4.5)
PIT (pk)
BAL (-1)
CIN (-2.5)
IND (-8)
HOU (-.5)
TB (-4.5)
DET (-3)
KC (-2.5)
TEN (-4)
DAL (-2)
WAS (-1)
DEN (-12.5)
ATL (pk)
NO (-7.5)


as a disclaimer, my PR #s here are no where near as important compared to how i use/value my college PR #s. the niffel is so tight/close, that it's (my capping of it is) driven much more by other factors...injuries, situations, and so forth. that said, i still wanna get these #s better/stronger...as they've been pretty bad to date (first 3 weeks).


for example, in someone else's thread i mentioned that i really liked Houston at home this weekend. and my PR #s above show that i should. (some line value there.)
however, seattle's a fuckin machine right now...houston not so much...and for the life of me, i've got a hard time trusting schaub in this spot...to have success vs struggling against that seattle defense. points allowed (in houston's case) is also a red flag.
 
I like that Chicago/Det over. Trestman seems to have cured Jay Cutler

Trestman cured a cancer growing in Cutler called "Nogoodoffensivecoordinatoraforadecade"

I'll be adding that over likely as well. BOL.
 
three additions to round out my card...

SD (+2) for 1
HOU ML (+100) for 1/2
TB (-2.5) for 1/2


reason behind two of those being smaller plays comes down to the trust factor. nothing more than that. anyhow, good luck on sunday.
 
Lots of totals for me as well, including the Indy game you are on. Here my PR's for this week. Keep in mind, these are my SUBJECTIVE numbers. They get molded during the week, and are nothing more than a starting point. I use a 40-120 scale. No team can below 40 and not team can be above 120.

SF -5
Pitt -2
Balt -3.9
Ciny -3.3
Colts -12
Sea -1.8
Az -4.6
Det -2.2
Kc -6.2
Tenn -5.8
Girls -2.2
Oak -0.2
Den -14.2
Atl -4.3

Good Luck,
 
SMH...thx, bud. Appreciate the feedback. :cheers:


___________________________



Well, that's EXACTLY what I meant about the trust factor...and why those two games were only half unit plays.
Both mother fuckers, Houston and Tampa, did everything necessary...except play (not choke away) the 4th quarters.

Anyhow, sitting at 3-2 on the day with New Orleans pending tomorrow...but roughly 1.5 units on the plus side of the ledger.
Go Saints!!!
 
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