NFL Week 4

[smh212]

Record goes here:

Pitt/Balt UNDER 44 (1.25)
My line 40

BALTIMORE -1.5, -110 (1.25) 1st half

I don't see how Mike Vick, a guy who never has been a playbook guy, is going to have success. He was signed on Aug 25th, now he is thrust into the starting role, against a team that will mix it up on defense, and likely confuse Mike into mistakes.

VICK UNDER 19.5, +110 comp (1)
VICK UNDER 222.5 Passing Yards (1)

3 team teaser risking 6.5 to win 5
Pitt/Balt under 53.5
SF +18.5+
Den/Minn UNDER 52.5

2 team parlay 1.5 to win 3.6

Cincy Bearcats +7 and Pitt/Balt UNDER 44

 

[emkee]

:shake:

 

[smh212]

NFL Week 4 Cont

YTD: 12-5 +7.01
Sides: 5-2 +3.64
Totals: 3-3 -.36
Teaser: 1-1 -.60
Parlays 1-0 +3.6
Prop : 2-0 +2.10
Half 0-1 -1.37

Thanks Emkee.....:shake:

Open tickets:
3 team teaser risking 6.5 to win 5
Pitt/Balt under 53.5 (W)
SF +18.5
Den/Minn UNDER 52.5
Margin Against the Close
MAC calculations are up w/ 3 NFL weeks in the books. 3 weeks is not a great sample size, and if I play these, it will be for a bit less than usual
MAC Plays: ARIZONA (+66)

No other clubs qualify (+40 or -40). However 3 clubs have yet to beat the spread:
Lions (-18)
Colts (-33)
Chicago (-35)

5 clubs have outperformed odds-makers expectations ATS thus far going 3-0 AT:
Cards (+66)
Bengals (+24.5)
Falcons (+23)
Denver (+20)
Green Bay (+14)
It should be noted that Pitt is 1-0-2 and NE is 2-0-1 ATS.

The true power of the MAC is to help the player understand which teams play close to spread expectations, and which teams give the books fits. A good example is SD. Week 1 they outperformed the number by 1.5 pts. Week 2 they under-performed by 1.5. Then week 3 they under-perform by 15.

Houston is a team that may be ready to breakout ATS. After posting a -7, and -4 in weeks 1 and 2, they posted a +4 in week 3.
Oakland and Minny are two clubs that under-performed by over 3 scores in week 1 (Minny -20, Oak -17), that outperformed the number by more than 1 score in weeks 2 and 3 (Minny 7.5, 15 ; Oak 9 , 10.5). Oak is favored on the road this week, is it too much to ask of them to win 2 straight road games? Their opponent, Chicago sits at a -35 MAC this year, but take away the -23 week 2 against AZ, and their avg MAC is -4. Oakland is -3 on Sunday. Even at 2-1 the number tells me the oddsmakers don’t have much faith in Oakland. If you are a believer in Oakland, then the “3” likely looks like a steal.

Indy/Jax UNDER 47.5 (1.5)
My Line: 44

In the last 6 meetings (those which resemble the most key components off the current teams), the under is 5-1. The Avg total pts scored has been 44.5, the median sits at 40. Given the current state of the these ball clubs, I don't see where a 47.5 is warranted.Be back in the am.

:cheers3:

 

[TreyDawg]

GL SMH

 

[JML4481]

San Francisco is -33.5 MAC ,no?

 

[B.A.R.]

Great week so far, and great season so far.