NFL week 3

[tee*dub]

2007 posted on ctg:

ATS 28-19 , +26100
ML dogs 4-2, +14400
Teasers 2-7, -6800
ML favs 1-1, +300
Totals 5-8,-4450
HT wager 16-7, +18,500
Props 0-1, , -1600

2007 Overall NFL 56-45, +46,350
______________________________

2008 posted on CTG

ATS 8-4, $+6800

_________________________________________________

3-2 last week to start the year with two +money weeks in a row. Hitting at 67% and being selective.

Not a lot of games that fall into my sweet spot this week but one jumped out:

Locked this in and will add more later:

Chicago -3 -115; 4 units

adds:

Ariz TT over 20, -120; 2 units
Ariz pk 2H +105; 4 units
NE -7 2 H -105 2 units
Rams +8, -110; 4 units
Rams 1H +6, -110; 2 units
<!-- / message -->
Hester appears gametime decision but like this without him and even more with him.

A few quick points:

• Everyone expects this to be a physical game and it will be. I am in love with the Bear defense and they get an offense they should be able to handle, especially at home.
• Tampa is converting 3rd downs at 30% and Bear defense is giving up 29%.. Like that. Bear defense is also about 100ypg better than Tampa so far. Like that.
• Orton doesn't throw Td's but he also doesn't throw INT's. Like that.
• Tampa offensively has completed less than 60% and Griese was under that LW at 58%. They are facing a better defense today. Like that.

Bottom line is this Bear defense has done well against a dynamic offense (Colts, granted somewhat depleted) and I think we can expect a shutdown type effort today vs a much less dynamic offense. I have Tampa rated much lower than most on my charts and the Bears much higher, so this is a play for 4 units. Thought about buying off the number or playing the ML but the price was just too much.. Roll with the -3 at slightly elevated vig.

Back in a bit:cheers:

 

[Mags]

Nice, played this first thing this morning but at -120, also locked in Denver earlier in the week at -4x. Looking into Buffalo and Atlanta as other possible early plays. BOL today.

:cheers:

 

[nawlins51]

GL TeeDub. I almost played it myself. I am pulling for you buddy.Get you some.Hopefully we can hit some 2nd halves today.

 

[TheSportsThing]

GL on Chi

 

[spanishshark]

You know it's a winner. :cheers:

 

[tee*dub]

add:

Ariz TT over 20, -120; 2 units

Think this one goes over the game total too but Ariz TT is safer bet IMO.

leans in late games:

SF
STL ATS and ML

I'll be lurking for HT plays all day.:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Good Luck bro. Played a bunch of TTs as well just havent touched the Skins total yet though...on CHItown as well....TB defense slips a few notches when it travels and the offense is a work in progress with 2nd tier players playing big roles or starting ones

 

[cogenman]

FYI: News: Bears WR/KR Devin Hester will not be active for the club's Week 3 game vs. the Buccaneers. Hester suffered torn rib cartilage last week

GL T-dub.

 

[Barty]

Gl Tee, !

 

[chancedog]

STL is flat out bad going against you there BOL

 

[tee*dub]

add:

NE -7 2 H -105 2 units

 

[tee*dub]

add:

Ariz pk 2H +105; 4 units

 

[tee*dub]

add:

Rams +8, -110; 4 units
Rams 1H +6, -110; 2 units

 

[Satyr]

GL tonight Tee*dub

:cheers:

 

[tee*dub]

add:

Ravens -.5, -120, 1H; 4 units

 

[tee*dub]

Brutal day guys so beware:

Det TT 2H over 10 -115, 4 units

 

[tee*dub]

Jax 2H pk +110, 3 units

 

[tee*dub]

Rams 2h over 10, -105; 6 units

:smiley_acbe:

 

[RambleOn]

Tailed ya on bears and rams today bro. Maybe I'm a mush? :shake: bol

 

[RambleOn]

By the way I think that ram total is a great bet

 

[tee*dub]

add

Cowboys -2.5, -125; 4 units

 

[Satyr]

Let's get those Boys T

:cheers:

 

[catfood]

On Dallas with you GL Teedub!

 

[RambleOn]

On Dallas for first 2 unit play. 1/2 unit parlay (first of the year) Dallas and Over. We'll see. BOL.

 

[askias]

Good call on the Boys TeeDub. I joined you and picked up 3 units.