NFL Week 3

[smh212]

Off to a solid start to the season. Will update records later.

Thursday Night:
TAMPA +7 (1.25)
My line: Atl -6

Was able to get a "7" from my local. Didn't think it would get there, but it did. ATL has held form this year, by playing very well at home and poor on the road. The Bengals were my play of thr week last week, as ATL is not in their class. I expect a better showing from ATL at home. However, this is a division game, and while I expect improvement from Atl, I expect even more from Tampa. The Bucs have talent, however, with a new coach, new QB, and new systems on both sides of the ball, it makes sense, that it would take time for things to come together. The Bucs played very vanilla on defense in last weeks loss to the Rams. They went cover 3 most of the game, likely due to a lack of respect for the QB, and a heavy respect for the run. I expect the opposite tonight. From what I hear, the defense has finally grasped Lovies system. In addition, I think Mccown and his Wr's will be a more cohesive unit. I like the Bucs to compete tonight, and have this one as FG game.

Good Luck.

 

[STEED]

GL this wk smh

 

[~Utah]

GL the rest of the week smh

 

[dilaudid8]

212 bol

 

[guaranteeed]

gl smh

 

[smh212]

Sunday

YTD:

• Sides: 4-1 +3.80
• Totals: 3-2 +1.00
• Team Totals: 1-0 +1.00
• Player Props: 3-5 -2.40
• Teasers: 1-1 -0.40
• Second Half: 1-0 +1.25

Thanks Alex, D8 and Steed.

Never thought I would see a Lovie Smith coached team play the way Tampa did on Thursday.

BUFFALO -1 (1.25)
My line: Buf -3

Anything under a FG is value IMO where Buffalo is concerned. An identity is starting to be established, and while SD is a good team, the Bills should be able to hit the underneath route to death today, especially to their backs. It's a soft spot for SD. Rivers will compete, and it will likely come down to the end, but at this price, I'm buying Buffalo.

Dal/Stl UNDER 44 (1.25)
My line: 41

Dallas has a good shot at getting large chunks of yardage in this one IF the O-line can neutralize the STL pass rush. However, the Cowboys believe they can run the ball on STL, and that may help my cause. I expect the STL offense so improve, but not to the point where they crack the 23 pt mark yet. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games. The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Dallas's last 23 games on the road. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis last 5 games. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games at home (Minny, TB, NO, Chi, Tenny) Avg total L10 = 42.5 overall STL. STL C Wells, is clearly playing through injury. Offensive lacks continuity. Call it 21-17 / 21-20.

REDSKINS +6 (2) and REDSKINS +210 (1)
My line: Phila -3

Big bet for me.
Divisional matchup, involving two teams familiar with one another. The Redskins will likely employ a conservative attack focused on running the ball and 12 personnel. The Kendricks injury is a significant one for the Eagles defense, given the responsibilities he carries on defense, and the lack of depth behind him. His injury will force a scheme change. Eagles have not been a very good home team for 3 years now. Even last year, they were 4-4. Will the Eagles be able to exploit the Skins between the numbers, given their piss-poor safety play? Yes, but CB Amerson is coming along very nicely, and it appears that Riley Cooper is regressing. Skins will focus on Sproles and McCoy. I think my number is the correct one, and give the Skins a shot at winning this one SU. In addition, I think the 1st half UNDER deserves consideration, but will wait to see if we get a public OVER push closer to game time.

GIANTS -110 (1.25)
My line: NY -3

Liked this one before the news of Foster being out. W/out their bell cow, the Texans may actually have to attempt a forward pass. Something they have done 41 times in their first two games. I saw signs of life from the Giants offense last week, and I'm betting this is the week that things begin to click for Giants. Not calling for them to drop 30, but 23 is reasonable. In addition, I always like backing a 0-2 home team that is well coached, especially facing a 2-0 team, that may be a bit content where they are. Last factor for me was travel for Hou. On west coast last week, on east coast this week. Giants roll.

NE/Oak UNDER 46.5 (1.25)
My line: 42

I don't see Oakland getting passed 17 points here, and at the same time, I don't see NE getting more than 24-27. Patriots 30th in NFL in Yards/Play, 31st in Yards per Pass, and 27th in Yards per Game. I believe a correlation makes sense with regards to dog/under and fav/over. Looking for good odds on an Oak/under parlay. Oak/Under teaser consideration as well.

PHILA/WASH UNDER 26 1st half (1)

Leans:
Miami and Miami UNDER
Cleveland

 

[P-Unit]

love that first half under. will join you on that one. GL on the action SMH

 

[smh212]

Thanks P.

Player props all for .75

Manuel OV 15.5 pass att
Morris OV 74.5 yds russhing
Fitzpatrick OV 220.5 yds passing
Dalton UN 242.5 yds passing
R.Bush UN 77.5 rush/rec yds

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[smh212]

Teasers:

2T Cincy PK and Cle +8 (2)

2T Oak +20 and UNDER Oak 52.5 (2)

GL

 

[smh212]

Adding:

JACKSONVILLE +7 (1.25)
My line: Indy -6

Betting the number.

 

[smh212]

Solid Sunday.

MNF: Jets -2. (1-25)

Good luck.