NFL Week 3 Thoughts/Plays

Marlo

Marlo

Check out my DAD BOD
24-24 +8.4
29-27-+15.6

Will update record, but week 2 and playing almost every side and total got me back in the green. Will use this for all plays. I think we know a hell of alot more after week 2 than we did week 1.

Added some updated lines from the Greek. Saw the lines when they came out, but didnt jump on anything.

5-3 +7.2

Sides
Minnesot Vikings -3 4.4-4 W
Dallas -3 5.5-5 W
Tampa Bay +3 1-1.05 W
Wash1st half -1 1.2-1 W
Pittsburgh +3.5 1-1.05 L
Browns ML 1-1.10 L



Totals
Arizona/Washington Over 42 3.3-3 L
Bengals/Giants Over 42 1.1-1 W
Halfs
 
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<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#800000 height=20><TD width=225>Sunday, September 21, 2008</TD><TD width=75 bgColor=#ffffff>Game/2ndH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>2ndQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>3rdQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>4thQ</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#003366 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>#</TD><TD width=200>Team Name </TD><TD align=right width=95>Spread </TD><TD align=middle width=95>Total</TD><TD align=middle width=55>MoneyLn</TD><TD align=right width=85>T1 Total </TD><TD align=right width=85>T2 Total </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>391</TD><TD width=185>Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=right width=45>+205</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>392</TD><TD width=185>Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-5½</TD><TD align=middle width=85>36½</TD><TD align=right width=45>-245</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>393</TD><TD width=185>Oakland Raiders</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=right width=45>+360</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>394</TD><TD width=185>Buffalo Bills</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-9½</TD><TD align=middle width=85>36½</TD><TD align=right width=45>-460</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>395</TD><TD width=185>Houston Texans</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=right width=45>+180</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>396</TD><TD width=185>Tennessee Titans</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-4½</TD><TD align=middle width=85>39</TD><TD align=right width=45>-220</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>397</TD><TD width=185>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=right width=45>+650</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>398</TD><TD width=185>New York Giants</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-13½</TD><TD align=middle width=85>41½</TD><TD align=right width=45>-850</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>399</TD><TD width=185>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD align=right width=85> -105</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=right width=45>+155</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>400</TD><TD width=185>Washington Redskins</TD><TD align=right width=85>-3 -115</TD><TD align=middle width=85>41½</TD><TD align=right width=45>-175</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>401</TD><TD width=185>Miami Dolphins</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=right width=45>+550</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>402</TD><TD width=185>New England Patriots</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-12½</TD><TD align=middle width=85>35</TD><TD align=right width=45>-750</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>403</TD><TD width=185>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=right width=45>+140</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>404</TD><TD width=185>Chicago Bears</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-3</TD><TD align=middle width=85>35½</TD><TD align=right width=45>-160</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>405</TD><TD width=185>Carolina Panthers</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=right width=45>+170</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>406</TD><TD width=185>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-3½</TD><TD align=middle width=85>37</TD><TD align=right width=45>-200</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>3:05 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>407</TD><TD width=185>St Louis Rams</TD><TD align=right width=85> -115</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=right width=45>+375</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>408</TD><TD width=185>Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD align=right width=85>-9½ -105</TD><TD align=middle width=85>44</TD><TD align=right width=45>-475</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>3:05 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>409</TD><TD width=185>Detroit Lions</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=right width=45>+175</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>410</TD><TD width=185>San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-4</TD><TD align=middle width=85>45½</TD><TD align=right width=45>-210</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>3:05 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>411</TD><TD width=185>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=right width=45>+190</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>412</TD><TD width=185>Denver Broncos</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-5½</TD><TD align=middle width=85>51</TD><TD align=right width=45>-230</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>3:15 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>413</TD><TD width=185>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD align=right width=85> +105</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=right width=45>+155</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>414</TD><TD width=185>Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD align=right width=85>-3 -125</TD><TD align=middle width=85>45</TD><TD align=right width=45>-175</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>3:15 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>415</TD><TD width=185>Jacksonville Jaguars</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=right width=45>+195</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>416</TD><TD width=185>Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-5</TD><TD align=middle width=85>42</TD><TD align=right width=45>-235</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>3:15 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>417</TD><TD width=185>Cleveland Browns</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=right width=45>+115</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>418</TD><TD width=185>Baltimore Ravens</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-2½</TD><TD align=middle width=85>39</TD><TD align=right width=45>-135</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>7:15 pm (NBC) </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>419</TD><TD width=185>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-3</TD><TD align=middle width=85>50½</TD><TD align=right width=45>-160</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>420</TD><TD width=185>Green Bay Packers</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=right width=45>+140</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#800000 height=20><TD width=225>Monday, September 22, 2008</TD><TD width=75 bgColor=#ffffff>Game/2ndH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>2ndQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>3rdQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>4thQ</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#003366 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>#</TD><TD width=200>Team Name </TD><TD align=right width=95>Spread </TD><TD align=middle width=95>Total</TD><TD align=middle width=55>MoneyLn</TD><TD align=right width=85>T1 Total </TD><TD align=right width=85>T2 Total </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>7:35 pm (ESPN) </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>421</TD><TD width=185>New York Jets</TD><TD align=right width=85> -115</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=right width=45>+340</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>422</TD><TD width=185>San Diego Chargers</TD><TD align=right width=85>-9 -105</TD><TD align=middle width=85>44</TD><TD align=right width=45>-440</TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
just for giggles I would not mind throwing a unit on the Bengals ML. Bengals have all the tools to be a top team in the NFL and I just dont see them dragging ass every weekend....I hate the bengals but I also know when I see a talented team.......But then again it is the G-MEN so I am stuck in the middle. I wish I was up big....hehehe but i am down big so I might stay away.
 
lidspinner said:
just for giggles I would not mind throwing a unit on the Bengals ML. Bengals have all the tools to be a top team in the NFL and I just dont see them dragging ass every weekend....I hate the bengals but I also know when I see a talented team.......But then again it is the G-MEN so I am stuck in the middle. I wish I was up big....hehehe but i am down big so I might stay away.
Click to expand...

That ML will be worth a half a unit out of principle. That will give Cinci the chance to redeem themselves with my pocketbook.

Vegas really thinks Cincy is terrible with this line. I can't disagree, but 13.5 is a lot in the NFL. I promised myself not to bet Cincy again........but i made that promise last week.

As bad as Cincy is I'm thinking this game will get some serious discussion. The Giants are public darlings right now. Winning and Cover both games. that was factored into the line......but this is still the NFL.
 
Lidspinner good thoughts, I agree with this also and it fits one of my rules-

Rule #4-- "THE BALANCING OUT THEORY" Giants have looked good and looked like world beaters beating the shit out of the rams-
Bengals have looked like complete ass- So the Giants look like an easy pick, but not so fast my friends--

THe giants have looked great and the Bengals could not have looked worse-

Rule 4- "Thou shall take into consideration that from week to week, a team that is really bad can only play better and a team that played very well will be hard pressed to duplicate the performance from last week-

EX- Cincy will play with some pride and be motivated for this game vs Giants-

Giants cannot be motivated to play the Bengals. Knowing some pro athletes, it is a game like this, where they have no interest in playing-

This game fits RULE #4 perfectly--

How much impact does 2 weeks have on a spread??????????????

IF this was week 1, I guarantee you the line was at most Giants -6
 
Marlo Stanfield said:
That ML will be worth a half a unit out of principle. That will give Cinci the chance to redeem themselves with my pocketbook.

Vegas really thinks Cincy is terrible with this line. I can't disagree, but 13.5 is a lot in the NFL. I promised myself not to bet Cincy again........but i made that promise last week.

As bad as Cincy is I'm thinking this game will get some serious discussion. The Giants are public darlings right now. Winning and Cover both games. that was factored into the line......but this is still the NFL.
Click to expand...



AsI was typing my thoughts in my capping headquarters, the great marlo is on the exact same page as me...

I will post my new system rules, I honestly believe if you stick to this system, you will win most of your games, it has some basic fundamental rules that ensure you have a good chance to win, and takes into account everything I know about spreads.
 
Rule #5-- "Taking cellar dwellar teams is bad for financial health"

Rule #6- "THou shall take into consideration that Cellar dwellars lose most of their games during the season." Thou shall also take into consideration that cellar dwellars are sometimes favored or are very small dogs" By that logic if a cellar dwellar is to be played, they should only be played with the highest spread and points available, ex- take CINCY at +13.5 and not at -1 vs Tenny like they were last week.
 
INteresting you will get a motivated CINCY team at almost 2 td's vs the Giants--

However one issue may be if the cellar dwellar has issues along the O LINE, then all bets are off because they may just not score at all if there is no protection. I dont know if that is the case in CINCY. if they have time to throw and a decent O LINE, then they are worth a look.
 
You don't need a system to figure out the Bengals game.

1. They can't protect the QB (99 and 124 yds passing in two games)
2. The Giants can rush the passer...
3. There's no worse matchup problem to have then DL > Oline
4. The Bengals aren't physical up front on D
5. The Giants have the most physical running back in football (sans maybe Marion Barber)
6. Plex- see what Calvin Johnson did to Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph..both corners are undersized and have zero answers for Plex.
7. Bengals have scored 1 offensive TD in 120 mins of football..first team offense scored two offensive TD's in four preseason games.
8. Lame Duck coach...legs were cut out from under him with the Chris Henry decision

33-3 G-Men.
 
JumpOnBoard said:
You don't need a system to figure out the Bengals game.

1. They can't protect the QB (99 and 124 yds passing in two games)
2. The Giants can rush the passer...
3. There's no worse matchup problem to have then DL > Oline
4. The Bengals aren't physical up front on D
5. The Giants have the most physical running back in football (sans maybe Marion Barber)
6. Plex- see what Calvin Johnson did to Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph..both corners are undersized and have zero answers for Plex.
7. Bengals have scored 1 offensive TD in 120 mins of football..first team offense scored two offensive TD's in four preseason games.
8. Lame Duck coach...legs were cut out from under him with the Chris Henry decision

33-3 G-Men.
Click to expand...

Jump

You know your team better than I do, and I'm not disagreeing with anything you have listed....but thats what I'm getting at......I think one of these games Cinci will figure it out....could be this one, could be the next one. There is to much talent there for them not to.
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
INteresting you will get a motivated CINCY team at almost 2 td's vs the Giants--

However one issue may be if the cellar dwellar has issues along the O LINE, then all bets are off because they may just not score at all if there is no protection. I dont know if that is the case in CINCY. if they have time to throw and a decent O LINE, then they are worth a look.
Click to expand...
Motivated?

Have Chad and TJ looked motivated to you?

This is a bad team with a lame duck coach and a brutal schedule.
 
Marlo Stanfield said:
Jump

You know your team better than I do, and I'm not disagreeing with anything you have listed....but thats what I'm getting at......I think one of these games Cinci will figure it out....could be this one, could be the next one. There is to much talent there for them not to.
Click to expand...
where's the talent though? I'm serious...this team has lost a shit ton of talent.

The 11-5 year they were great offense because the offense line was great.

Willie Anderson at RT (Pro Bowler)- Gone
Bobbie Williams at RG - got paid, disappeared
Richie Braham at C -10 year beast -Gone/Retired
Eric Steinbach at LG - Gone/Paid in CLE
Levi Jones at LT- got paid/got hurt/got benched/won't play for Marvin

The group up front was good and now it is no longer there...they have the worst center in the league in Ghiacic....Andrews can't find a positiion..Whitworth is a mix between tackle and guard and can't find a spot that suits him...it may be the worst line in the league..

Utecht was gonna help stretch the field...he's hurt

Rudi was in best shape since Auburn- he's in Detroit

TJ was gonna have his money year as he's a free agent- hurt hammy, Cincy staff blamed offseason workouts in Cali instead of here..he's now pouting in the corner and maybe still hurt.

Chad- rejuvenated after a weird offseason...spends more time in court changing name and getting divorced than on the practice field..

Marvin won't make week 8 guys...go look at that schedule...

4 winable games (BAL, KC, WAS, @ HoU)...that's it.

Dhani Jones couldn't make the Giants team...he's our MLB and defensive captain

John Thornton couldn't make the Titans team...he's the DT and seocndary captain..


This team is terrible...the "they have talent" is just a myth...this isn't 05..I'm sorry it's not..

The defense has three playmakers and 8 people that couldn't start in the league anyhwere else...

The offense is a bad offense...it just is now.
 
With Jump on this one. Fade Cinci all season... Lame duck was a term coined specifically for situations like the Bengals are in this season.
:whip:
 
JumpOnBoard said:
where's the talent though? I'm serious...this team has lost a shit ton of talent.

The 11-5 year they were great offense because the offense line was great.

Willie Anderson at RT (Pro Bowler)- Gone
Bobbie Williams at RG - got paid, disappeared
Richie Braham at C -10 year beast -Gone/Retired
Eric Steinbach at LG - Gone/Paid in CLE
Levi Jones at LT- got paid/got hurt/got benched/won't play for Marvin

The group up front was good and now it is no longer there...they have the worst center in the league in Ghiacic....Andrews can't find a positiion..Whitworth is a mix between tackle and guard and can't find a spot that suits him...it may be the worst line in the league..

Utecht was gonna help stretch the field...he's hurt

Rudi was in best shape since Auburn- he's in Detroit

TJ was gonna have his money year as he's a free agent- hurt hammy, Cincy staff blamed offseason workouts in Cali instead of here..he's now pouting in the corner and maybe still hurt.

Chad- rejuvenated after a weird offseason...spends more time in court changing name and getting divorced than on the practice field..

Marvin won't make week 8 guys...go look at that schedule...

4 winable games (BAL, KC, WAS, @ HoU)...that's it.

Dhani Jones couldn't make the Giants team...he's our MLB and defensive captain

John Thornton couldn't make the Titans team...he's the DT and seocndary captain..


This team is terrible...the "they have talent" is just a myth...this isn't 05..I'm sorry it's not..

The defense has three playmakers and 8 people that couldn't start in the league anyhwere else...

The offense is a bad offense...it just is now.
Click to expand...

:shake:

I appreciate the input.
 
cant argue your points here...the bengals suck and i am a browns fan so I really hate them...with that said, I am taking the ML at half unit for now and throwing them in witht the points for a unit. If they fail me this time I will not touch them again all year.
 
On Cincinnati +13.5 for 2 units. Agree with some others, I really like this game. I would not screw around with the ML, but the points look very attractive here. It may not cash, but that is why it is gambling and if you are going to make money betting the NFL you have to bet sides like Cinci this week.

My style in NFL is to bet some trash teams in good situations or the public team is in a bad spot. That style got me hammered last year in the NFL as last year was a different year with absolute no parity. However, this year, I think the NFL has returned to a state of more parity, and expect my style will prosper this year.

By the way taking another stab with the Rams this week, got +10 before it got bet down to 9.5
 
Leans

Will have 10-15 plays by kickoff, there will be 2 huge plays for me.

KC +6
Raiders +9
Tenn a key -4
cinci +13
Was -3
Miami +12.5
Bucs +3
Minny
Rams +9.5
Lions +4
NO +5.5
Philly -3.5
Jack +4.5
Ravens -3.5
DALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLASSs -3
SD -9
 
Sorry to talk you off Cincy...you had the right side...

One theme was common in the three monster spreads yesterday...we had three 2-0 teams playing at home vs extremely piss poor teams....one loss (NE), and the other two very well could have (NYG, BUF)...

those were extremely bad spots for the home faves..esp the two 0-2 teams in make or break land...that's a gut wrecher for Cincy..to play that well against the World Champs and lose it in O.T....could cut them off at the knees.
 
JumpOnBoard said:
Sorry to talk you off Cincy...you had the right side...

One theme was common in the three monster spreads yesterday...we had three 2-0 teams playing at home vs extremely piss poor teams....one loss (NE), and the other two very well could have (NYG, BUF)...

those were extremely bad spots for the home faves..esp the two 0-2 teams in make or break land...that's a gut wrecher for Cincy..to play that well against the World Champs and lose it in O.T....could cut them off at the knees.
Click to expand...

Jump it was really weird I was reading Bill Simmons article from last week, today. He picked Cinci to cover, and his rationale was the Giants know all they had to do was show up and they would win this game. I think the Pats had that same mentality.


Just looked over my leans from Saturday night. if I would have played them all I had a 12-3 day. funny is I changed my mind on both Philly and Balti at the last 2nd. And I did the same for tonights game.

KC +6
Raiders +9
Tenn a key -4
cinci +13
Was -3
Miami +12.5
Bucs +3
Minny
Rams +9.5
Lions +4
NO +5.5
Philly -3.5
Jack +4.5
Ravens -3.5
DALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLASSs -3
SD -9
 
Looks like SD and SD 1st H are the plays . I was looking for a reason to take NY all weekend but just cant come up with one.

The line looks high but SD was a small fav @ Denver and NYJ a small dog at home to NE . Very simply SD is better then NE and probably the best team in the AFC at the moment despite being 0-2 . I think anything under -10 presents value with SD here .

NY -

They scored 10 at home vs the NE defense and 20 away @ Miami in large part thanks to the TD they had on 4th and 13 with no kicker available . So the offense is not in sync . Is that really suprising ? Like I said repeatedly Favre has played 98% of his LONG career in one organization . This is a total upheavel for him . Only made worse since he didnt arrive in NY till mid camp . Its not like they had the whole offseason to learn the playbook and get on the same page . Factor in your supposed #1 WR didnt play a snap in preseason and still is not 100% (Coles) .

Of course they have potential but it takes time to develop the sync and timing needed to be successful in the offense . Lets not forget the OL is looking at a growing period as well with the some new faces ..There kicker is out and while Feeley is solid he has always been widely inconsistent ( unreliable) .

SD -
LT is hurt and Gates is less then 100? So what ? Sproles is as talented as LT and they still nearly dropped 40 last week on the road vs Denver with those 2 in limited roles . The pass attack stepped up as Chambers and jackson made some plays ...

You know SD is pissed after losing consecutive games in heartbreaking fashion. In other sports teams usually go in 1 direction or the extreme opposite here . They either get crushed or crush someone .......They also have games @ Oak and @ Miami to follow while Carolina and Denver are clearly better teams then NYJ...

The Chargers also trailed 31-17 at half last week . They only score they allowed was the phantom TD thanks to the no call in the 2nd H. So safe to say they made adjustments and considerdably slowed the best offense in the NFL the 1st 3 weeks. The offense besides 2 TDS had 2 FGs but that may have cost the game as both times they were at the 10yd line or inside it and didnt get the TD. Also 1st H DEN had fairly short TD drives of 28 and 48 yds....also SD offense had 1 just punt and it was a 3 and out ....

While the loss v Carolina the only TD CAR cored on offense was the last one as time expired they had 4 FGs of which two were fairly long 44 and 49 yds which is a question mark with Feeley from that distance IMO. They Panthers had a defensive score as well. Funny part is the defensive did the same thing again here. Played a shitty 1st H and really shut down the opponent after halftime before the crucial last drive ....

Also very key I think about the Jets is they have not even had 300 yds of total offense yet . There defense will it has played well is basically playing bend dont break ball. They dont have any stops or turnovers and even Eric Barton admitted as much after the NE loss. So the stats arent bad but then again its not the SD offense either and no big plays to speak of.....I also though both opposing QBs did well taking advantage of the holes in the Jets pass defense . remember Pennington moving the ball in the 4th quarter ? NE didnt even take many deep shots downfield and did well with teh underneath stuff . Difference is only Randy Moss is a game changer of the teams played SD has alot more weapons to deal with ...

JETS O 293 yds @ Miami and the phins have allowed some huge pass plays early and allowed a 56 yd TD to Cotchery early and the 22 yd "hail Mary" to Stuckey . Leaving 214yds gained on the other 54 plays and about 105 yds through the air on the other 20 attempts ....Same deal vs NE only 150 something yds passing and 50 came on 1 play ...the offense is very sluggish ......and its facing an offensive beast who hasnt even put it all together yet ....how unlucky for NYJ to waive punter Graham and then get stuck with him anyway because there replacment got injured . Does he step up now or continue to be the struggling punter he was for awhile.....do you really want to give SD good field position ? Sproles may not return punts though which could be a mixed blessing cause it will be more involvemnent as RB ....

SD 28-17 ....not sure about the total because its pretty tight but do think SD gets 28 pts or better here...could see 28-14 or 28-13 ...probably worth SD and over teaser as well........

SD - the points
SD 1st H alf
SD Team Total over ? Under jets TT ??

Are things I am looking at .....:cheers:
 
I had SD was well SN...but basically just spot on here..

The Jets TT under wasn't a bad play either....field position was silly all night for the Jets...Yes, they have good special teams...but that was fish in a barrell for them...too lose that bad w/ that field position speaks volumes...

Great stuff.
 
JumpOnBoard said:
I had SD was well SN...but basically just spot on here..

The Jets TT under wasn't a bad play either....field position was silly all night for the Jets...Yes, they have good special teams...but that was fish in a barrell for them...too lose that bad w/ that field position speaks volumes...

Great stuff.
Click to expand...

I actually backed off the Jets team total when the number got bumped to 46.5 just stayed away from the total . Wasnt sure exactly why it was moving so much . Just a real small play on SD over 27 ...

Jets did zip on offense . Sure they gave it a little run at the end but at 5 yds a clip down 24 points when you know the defense is laxed. Self explatanory IMO ...1st H they had 2 TDS and a grand total of 5 yards of offense on those TDs. Pick 6 and then kick return put the ball on the 5 yard line. SD defense was solid keeping from NY from making a big play . While how many 3rd and or 3rd and 2s did SD convert in the 1st H ? Seemed like all of them....

The quality of football in the NFL is pretty sad ...but nice to see SD offense finally living up to its promise as well...:cheers:
 
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