NFL Week 3 discussion

wizardofodd

wizardofodd

Resident Newlywed
Do we have a weekly discussion thread going already? If so, just combine it

Couple random thoughts

are bad and good teams separated yet? besides Patriots

Vegas says they had a losing week last week in NFL, and now we get 10 road favs this week maybe 11, hmmm, looks like a bloodbath waiting to happen early this year

So far 5 out of 31 games the spread had factored into the score, thats 16%, if you are playing a dog, please just take some on the ML. Either the fav is covering or the dog is winning SU. On average 2-3 dogs cover the spread but lose SU weekly

Public teams after week 2 that will be factored into the lines week 3. Balty, Denver, Pitts, Atlanta, TB, NE, KC, Oak
 
I felt terrible for the books last week, lol, cmon cry me a river.

They had a field day with dog/under in first week plus Pats/Falcons non-covers.
 
'Bout time a discussion thread popped. It's been missing the last 2 weeks.

2 weeks in, still too early to judge for the most part.

You've either been lucky or unlucky at the point of the season.

5 weeks in and the shit begins to sink and the cream rises.

Eagles o-line which should be the best in the league, will mature as the season progresses.

They will win the NFC East.

At a glance, Denver should get assed this week.

Bills defense should murk Semen in his first road start of the season.

Spread currently Bills +3 after opening at +1...
 
that Denver line is a head scratcher for me. D has been good for both teams. So what are we buying? Denver defense or Buffalo offense?
 
ravens on the road against the jags love harbaugh in this spot
broncos shutdown McCoy and force Taylor to throw to who ? It's broncos or nothing imo
 
Headscratchers: The Pats giving 14 to the Texans and Oakland only 3 on the road against the Redskins.
 
One team can't score and on the road, the other can score and is at home

**I am a fan of the broncos** but why should the broncos get assed by the bills? Can they lose, sure, but how is it not denver or nothing (at worst), like montanas said...

Remember ravens are the "away team", but it is in WEMBLEY.

Echo what others have said, I think philly wins the division, or atleast gets to the playoffs..... if 1 4th quarter, little goofy, pick by the chiefs does not happen, philly is driving (or at the very least not giving up field position) in a game that was tied.
 
This has the makings of one of those counter-intuitive weeks.

"Rams should handle the Niners" - Well, the Niners played Seattle pretty tough in their building. Rams couldn't stop the Redskins mediocre run game, how well could Hyde do?

"Ravens should handle the Jags" - Well, the Ravens just lost their best lineman in Yanda, so is their line closer to the Texans that gave up 10 sacks, or the Titans who ran roughshod over these guys? The best offensive player in the game plays for Jax.

"Steelers should smoke the Bears" - Well, we all know there's a big difference between home Ben and road Ben. But does anyone remember that Glennon took a an 0-3 Bucs team into Pittsburgh and won? Don't Tomlin's teams lose a game like this every year?

"Dolphins should handle the sorry Jets" - Well....yeah they probably should. Dolphins weapons are better and the Raiders showed many of the Jets holes.

"Broncos should handle the Bills" - Well, similar to the Niners, the Bills played a pretty good road game last week. They should be more devoted to the run than Garrett was last week. Is Simeon really as good as he looked the past two weeks?

And so on. It's a week to week league. We have nine road favorites plus a pickem in Indy, Color me surprised if the home teams go worse than 5-5.
 
emkee said:
'Bout time a discussion thread popped. It's been missing the last 2 weeks.

2 weeks in, still too early to judge for the most part.

You've either been lucky or unlucky at the point of the season.

5 weeks in and the shit begins to sink and the cream rises.

Eagles o-line which should be the best in the league, will mature as the season progresses.

They will win the NFC East.

At a glance, Denver should get assed this week.

Bills defense should murk Semen in his first road start of the season.

Spread currently Bills +3 after opening at +1...
Click to expand...

My concern there is bills left tackle was injured last week, if he out believe they starting a rookie in his spot. Horrible time for that to happen! I been looking at under, points gonna be tough to come by for both although this probably the week these passes Simien throws to other team actually get picked...
 
Montanas said:
ravens on the road against the jags love harbaugh in this spot
broncos shutdown McCoy and force Taylor to throw to who ? It's broncos or nothing imo
Click to expand...

The ravens/jags is in London. Feel like that somewhat of a advantage for jags as they much more familiar playing this game. Not sure I like Ravens offense enough to lay more than 3. Think it all comes down to whether jags can avoid needing bortles to throw! Things get ugly when that happens, lol..
 
UTSUX said:
If MIAMI is for real, they should take care of the JETS. Right?
Click to expand...

1st game I played this week. Until proven to be a bad idea I'll take every playoff caliber team vs jets. Was thilled laying less than 7 which not always a good thing.
 
Looking forward to atl/det. Have a hard time seeing either team being held under 24 points. When either gets down in the second half the ball will be flying and scoreboard should light up. 2 very good offenses, lead by 2 really good qbs, playing on a fast track in a dome! 50.5 feels little short to me.
 
I don't have a line available yet but for the Balt/Jax game, if I can get a 20.5 or better I'll take the 1H under. Two better defenses vs two less than average offenses.
 
  • I see no reason to stop fading the jets. Sefarian Jenkins is coming back i think but the Fins should be able to stop the run. Even a 75% Ajayi is going to get his and barring a Cutler meltdown I think he manages a win of 10+.
  • Panthers defense may cover this line on their own. I'm sure many will see the loss of Olsen as a huge hit, but the Saints can't stop anyone. Haven't pulled the trigger as I have a concern about their oline (Bills blew it up countless times lw). Maybe it's just me but I think this line is begging for Saints $$$
  • I'll fade the Niners tonight, maybe Hyde rips them but Donald should make more of an impact this game...was on the Skins last week but I think the Ram's offense has the potential to be really good. It's only a matter of time before they start targeting Watkins and Gurley is back.
 
2daBank said:
The ravens/jags is in London. Feel like that somewhat of a advantage for jags as they much more familiar playing this game. Not sure I like Ravens offense enough to lay more than 3. Think it all comes down to whether jags can avoid needing bortles to throw! Things get ugly when that happens, lol..
Click to expand...


I agree on this part that Jags have some slight advantage as they know the procedure a bit better. Also, isn't Yanda, the best man on the O for the season. Huge loss for them
 
2daBank said:
Looking forward to atl/det. Have a hard time seeing either team being held under 24 points. When either gets down in the second half the ball will be flying and scoreboard should light up. 2 very good offenses, lead by 2 really good qbs, playing on a fast track in a dome! 50.5 feels little short to me.
Click to expand...

Hanging that 50.5 is enough to keep me away from the total. 51 is a very key number IMO and that 50.5 looks like bait, just seeing who's going to bite. Under or nothing for me if it stays there till game time
 
Co-sign on the Eagles. I think they bury the Giants this week. I don't care about what the Giants "used" to be capable of.

Tha Yanda injury is keeping me off the Ravens and leaning Jags. That injury is going to hurt them badly long term.
 
emkee said:
'Bout time a discussion thread popped. It's been missing the last 2 weeks.

2 weeks in, still too early to judge for the most part.

You've either been lucky or unlucky at the point of the season.

5 weeks in and the shit begins to sink and the cream rises.

Eagles o-line which should be the best in the league, will mature as the season progresses.

They will win the NFC East.

At a glance, Denver should get assed this week.

Bills defense should murk Semen in his first road start of the season.

Spread currently Bills +3 after opening at +1...
Click to expand...

Eagles best oline? You serious? Raiders O line is the best by a mile.
 
Capaholic said:
Co-sign on the Eagles. I think they bury the Giants this week. I don't care about what the Giants "used" to be capable of.

Tha Yanda injury is keeping me off the Ravens and leaning Jags. That injury is going to hurt them badly long term.
Click to expand...

Yep, Yanda injury is massive and puts a huge damper on my picking the Ravens to come out of the AFC.
 
Does anyone else feel like Houston getting 14 at the Pats is too much? I feel like this number should be 3-4 points lower.
 
After the Pats got rag-dolled in their home opener, I don't think 14 is enough for the Texans.
 
C-MAN said:
Serious?
Click to expand...

Yeah,

I mean I came up with that number quick but that seems right at home so we can then see a 9.5-10.5 on the road minimum.

Last year, week 16, NE was -17at home to the Jets.They won 41-3.

Week 10, they were -10.5 @ San Francisco. They won 30-17.

Week 9 they were -8.5 @ NY Jets. They won 22-17

This year they do not play the Jets at home till week 17. I guess that will depend on whether they need the win or not. If so, you absolutely will see 17 to 17.5 that late in the season unless something dramatic happens.
 
emkee said:
They would be but they have issues at right tackle and that's enough to keep them #2.

lol, and with our avy's I wonder if anyone takes us seriously.
Click to expand...

Just when I needed a laugh for no reason I saw this post. And it could have facts in it but good lawd it made me laugh
 
Gotcha. I guess I should have said what would they be if they played the Jets at home this Sunday. I actually thought -17.5 was a couple pts too low.
 
Are the Packers O Lineman gonna be back for the Cincy game? I thought I heard "yes" to one of them...
 
emkee said:
At a glance, Denver should get assed this week.

Bills defense should murk Semen in his first road start of the season.

Spread currently Bills +3 after opening at +1...
Click to expand...

wizardofodd said:
that Denver line is a head scratcher for me. D has been good for both teams. So what are we buying? Denver defense or Buffalo offense?
Click to expand...
Was at the Bills/Panthers game last week. Defense is solid and the offense was close to making it happen on a lot of big plays. Bills will match up better against Denver than Dallas did and they are coming home after a tough road game. I am leaning Bills right now.
 
wizardofodd said:
Hanging that 50.5 is enough to keep me away from the total. 51 is a very key number IMO and that 50.5 looks like bait, just seeing who's going to bite. Under or nothing for me if it stays there till game time
Click to expand...

Opened at 49 and has now hit 51. I've never been one to cap by trying to determine if lines are "bait, traps, etc", I look for where I perceive value based off my numbers and play it.. just don't see either team being held under 24 here, you know whenever either team gets down in the second half they will be slinging it. think it gonna take 27 minimum to win and actually expect the winner to have 31..
 
Hulu said:
Does anyone else feel like Houston getting 14 at the Pats is too much? I feel like this number should be 3-4 points lower.
Click to expand...

I dunno hoody defenses have historically been a nightmare on rookie qbs.. granted his defense may not be as good this year but just the scheme and all the looks they will give Watson will most likely cause a lot of confusion for him..

I was looking at the total, seems awful low for a pats game. Texans d good and all but I suspect they gonna be put in a lot of bad spots with short fields and I'd assume they will be on the field a lot!! Hard for me to see pats not putting up 30ish, just leaves the question is can Houston gives us a few tds? Figure they be down early and Watson can make few plays w his legs and possibly couple big plays to Hopkins.
 
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