Nfl Week 2
- Thread starter TW66
- Start date
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
I'm looking at the Steelers too. Cannot fault a play on the Broncos but the Bears are going to play very very very angry. Fangio is great but he does not have the cast yet.
eggman
Pretty much a regular
Do or die game for their season honestly. They needed to be 5-0 or 4-1 heading into the bye week 6. The come out playing the Saints, Chargers & Eagles. It could be a 0-3 run before they take on the Lions and wax their ass.
TW66
Pretty much a regular
I came across this recently and thought I would share as its a good read. Im not a huge trend guy but some might be interested......I copy and pasted this via email from UMS who is a good friend and a member here but posted it elsewhere. UMS needs to recover his password for this site so if any of the upper brass could help him out it would be appreciated .
Let's start with the small sample sizes:
Seattle in the Pete Carroll era when winning SU in week 1, then going otr the next week are 0-3 SU with an average score of 12.66 to 23.33
Pitt in the Mike Tomlin era when losing SU in week 1 and play at home the next week are 3-0 SU with an average score of 31.33 to 14
Now a little more substance:
Pitt in the Mike Tomlin era with Big Ben, at home, following any loss: 25-8 SU with an avg score of 27.15 to 16.60, including 5 shutouts by the defense and allowing 10 or less points 13 times. 25-8 is roughly a 76% win percentage, or a ML of -317
Seattle in the Pete Carroll era, after a win of 3 or less points and 1 tie game(this is important because these games were high leverage or intense) then going otr the following week are: 2-10-1 SU. That record(scratch the tie) implies a 17% chance of winning, or a ML of +488
It's also going to be a noon start on east coast time like most of us know, where it's tough on west coast teams. The Seahawks will be travelling 2132 miles for the game.
One thing that I didn't mention about the Sea/Pitt game is the bet% and money.
Currently at one site I see 68% of the tickets and 54% of the money on the Seahawks(it was higher yesterday)
At another site I see 61% of the tickets on Sea ats.
Gotta ask why the line didn't drop to 3 or even 2.5 in that case. Best assumption is that there is actual sharp $ on Pitt.
This isn't the tell all end all part of the handicap, but it's good to be on the right side of RLM.
I see that Fanduel went up to 4.5.
The injury report looks bad for Seattle compared to Pitt.
3 WR's are questionable for the Hawks.
Starting TE Dissly is ?, TE Justin Johnson is ?, TE Ed Dickson was lost in the offseason.
DE Ansah is ? Backup DE Collier is ?
Shaquill Griffin isn't on the injury report, but still has only one hand.
For Pitt, JuJu was upgraded to probable.
I'm seeing Joe Haden ? on one site, not listed on another, Pitt's official page hasn't updated yet.
Safety Sean Davis is ?, he didn't play vs NE. Leading tackler last year.
Let's start with the small sample sizes:
Seattle in the Pete Carroll era when winning SU in week 1, then going otr the next week are 0-3 SU with an average score of 12.66 to 23.33
Pitt in the Mike Tomlin era when losing SU in week 1 and play at home the next week are 3-0 SU with an average score of 31.33 to 14
Now a little more substance:
Pitt in the Mike Tomlin era with Big Ben, at home, following any loss: 25-8 SU with an avg score of 27.15 to 16.60, including 5 shutouts by the defense and allowing 10 or less points 13 times. 25-8 is roughly a 76% win percentage, or a ML of -317
Seattle in the Pete Carroll era, after a win of 3 or less points and 1 tie game(this is important because these games were high leverage or intense) then going otr the following week are: 2-10-1 SU. That record(scratch the tie) implies a 17% chance of winning, or a ML of +488
It's also going to be a noon start on east coast time like most of us know, where it's tough on west coast teams. The Seahawks will be travelling 2132 miles for the game.
One thing that I didn't mention about the Sea/Pitt game is the bet% and money.
Currently at one site I see 68% of the tickets and 54% of the money on the Seahawks(it was higher yesterday)
At another site I see 61% of the tickets on Sea ats.
Gotta ask why the line didn't drop to 3 or even 2.5 in that case. Best assumption is that there is actual sharp $ on Pitt.
This isn't the tell all end all part of the handicap, but it's good to be on the right side of RLM.
I see that Fanduel went up to 4.5.
The injury report looks bad for Seattle compared to Pitt.
3 WR's are questionable for the Hawks.
Starting TE Dissly is ?, TE Justin Johnson is ?, TE Ed Dickson was lost in the offseason.
DE Ansah is ? Backup DE Collier is ?
Shaquill Griffin isn't on the injury report, but still has only one hand.
For Pitt, JuJu was upgraded to probable.
I'm seeing Joe Haden ? on one site, not listed on another, Pitt's official page hasn't updated yet.
Safety Sean Davis is ?, he didn't play vs NE. Leading tackler last year.
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TW66
Pretty much a regular
A few take away's from the Seahawks/Bengals game:
1.The Bengals D line destroyed Wilson for most of the game, and that's at home. 4 sacks and a ton of pressures from what I saw. I think that Pitt's D line is very good despite what the Pats O line did to them(getting cut up with a thousand paper cuts with Brady's quick passes gassed them out). Bad O lines do not travel well, and it will be a pissed off crowd at Hines.
2. Seattle's D line sacked Dalton 5 times and caused him to fumble twice which both were lost. The first one in the redzone(failed scoring opp), the later was on the last play of the game. They hit him a lot and batted down a few balls as well. This was at home where the 12th man gets louder than any stadium. I think Pitt's oline is much better than Cinci's.
3. The Bengals Kicker missed a FG.
4. Seattle punted 8 times.
5. Cinci out gained them in yards, 452 to 233. Out gained them in TOP, 35:50 to 24:10. Out gained them in first downs, 22 to 10.
6. Joe Mixon went down after 6 carries, hence the tough time on the ground combined with a poor O line.
Yet, the Seahawks still won the game, barely, by 1 point, as 9.5 favorites.
A few take away's from the Pitt/NE game:
Honestly, is there any other time to give out a Mulligan than after getting your a s s handed to you by the Patriots? It was a clinic, perfect play calling, mistake free football, tremendous defense, especially from the DB's. Perhaps I didn't consider the "revenge" angle with Belichek last week. He hates losing to anyone at any time, and that's what he did against the Steelers last year. With a whole off season to game-plan for Pitt, it sure looked like he didn't miss one damn thing.
One thing that bugged me about Pitt's plan on defense was that they refused to get out of man coverage. This plan is contingent with a good pass rush(which they have) but the Pats O line was great and Brady got rid of it quick. They WR routes were designed to "rub" or "pic"as they call it, which is great against man coverage.
I see a big bounce back in a big way this Sunday. There's nothing like getting your ass whooped that makes you work harder the next day.
1.The Bengals D line destroyed Wilson for most of the game, and that's at home. 4 sacks and a ton of pressures from what I saw. I think that Pitt's D line is very good despite what the Pats O line did to them(getting cut up with a thousand paper cuts with Brady's quick passes gassed them out). Bad O lines do not travel well, and it will be a pissed off crowd at Hines.
2. Seattle's D line sacked Dalton 5 times and caused him to fumble twice which both were lost. The first one in the redzone(failed scoring opp), the later was on the last play of the game. They hit him a lot and batted down a few balls as well. This was at home where the 12th man gets louder than any stadium. I think Pitt's oline is much better than Cinci's.
3. The Bengals Kicker missed a FG.
4. Seattle punted 8 times.
5. Cinci out gained them in yards, 452 to 233. Out gained them in TOP, 35:50 to 24:10. Out gained them in first downs, 22 to 10.
6. Joe Mixon went down after 6 carries, hence the tough time on the ground combined with a poor O line.
Yet, the Seahawks still won the game, barely, by 1 point, as 9.5 favorites.
A few take away's from the Pitt/NE game:
Honestly, is there any other time to give out a Mulligan than after getting your a s s handed to you by the Patriots? It was a clinic, perfect play calling, mistake free football, tremendous defense, especially from the DB's. Perhaps I didn't consider the "revenge" angle with Belichek last week. He hates losing to anyone at any time, and that's what he did against the Steelers last year. With a whole off season to game-plan for Pitt, it sure looked like he didn't miss one damn thing.
One thing that bugged me about Pitt's plan on defense was that they refused to get out of man coverage. This plan is contingent with a good pass rush(which they have) but the Pats O line was great and Brady got rid of it quick. They WR routes were designed to "rub" or "pic"as they call it, which is great against man coverage.
I see a big bounce back in a big way this Sunday. There's nothing like getting your ass whooped that makes you work harder the next day.
Hulu
#3DownNation
I like the Steelz this week as well. Only reason I haven’t hit it yet is I’m allergic to 3.5 pt favs. But I’ll probably hold my nose and take it.
Really like Denver as well but the rest disparity is throwing me off there. Bears with 10 day week and Broncs only 6.
Good luck this week.
Really like Denver as well but the rest disparity is throwing me off there. Bears with 10 day week and Broncs only 6.
Good luck this week.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
He does know the bears tho and I think his d be gassed up. Tough ask to go to Denver and win early in the year. I’m on the under but at +3 I think it donks or nothing, points huge premium in this one imo.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Situation only reason I’m gun shy on donks. Keep waiting on Steelers cause I’d love to get -3. As much as everyone ragging on their week 1 performance my take away from week 1 was Seattle got lit up by the ginger water pistol! Lol
TW66
Pretty much a regular
Ytd 7-4-1 +$290
All bets are 1 unit flat ($100).Unless posted otherwise
Chargers -3 +100
Chargers -113
Broncos +3 -110
Steelers -3.5 -113
Ravens -11.5 -112
Chiefs -6.5 -109
Bengals -103
Titans / Cowboys / Chiefs / Steelers ML Parlay +384
Parlay not included in the Ytd just the +/- Units
Bol
All bets are 1 unit flat ($100).Unless posted otherwise
Chargers -3 +100
Chargers -113
Broncos +3 -110
Steelers -3.5 -113
Ravens -11.5 -112
Chiefs -6.5 -109
Bengals -103
Titans / Cowboys / Chiefs / Steelers ML Parlay +384
Parlay not included in the Ytd just the +/- Units
Bol
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guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Gl today tw
