smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
YTD: 56-41-1 +28.61
Sides: 24-21-2 +3.28
Totals: 13-8 +5.55
Teaser: 8-4 +14.35
Parlays 1-2 +1.85
Prop : 4-1 +3.25
Half 5-4 +0.18
Team Totals: 1-1 +0.15
Week 17 has always been about reading between the lines, understanding the head coach. and most importantly, knowing WHEN to bet based on my opinion vs. that of the public. This year, more than ever, game day has produced significant line moves on sides. My strategy for deciphering "smart" money versus public money has remained the same: I pay attention to the line moves on Thursday as my indicating tool. Reason being, is that Thursday is typically the day that the books will raise their bet limits to their respective max numbers. The pro's usually step in on Thurs, while the recreational bettor, who is flush and bet's limits, will likely wait till Sunday. I believe this has been ONE of the drivers behind game day line moves.
WK 17 also produces alot of "must win" angles favored by the public. In this day in age, when everything in on tape, and guys are playing for their next contract, "effort" is typically something I believe every team brings. Ok, enough of my opinion on market influence, and onto my card.
Margin Against the Close
The MAC system requires that a teams MAC score is either + or – 40 and if they are a fade team (score in the +) they had to have covered the prior week. If they are a PLAY ON team, they had to have not covered last week. The purpose of the MAC is to measure a team’s performance against the markets expectations.
Mac Fades
Overall 13-6 +6.40
MAC Play On
Overall 11-4 +6.60
Combined: 24-10 +13.0 70%
Week 16 MAC Plays:
Fades: SEA (+55.5) W
Play on: Colts (-57.5) W
Week 17 MAC Plays:
Fades: AZ (+57)
Play On: TITANS (-50.5)
Wagers Placed:
RAIDERS +7.5 (1.5) and RAIDERS +275 (.25)
My Line: KC -5.5
BILLS +3, -110 (1.50)
My Line: Jets -1.5
PACKERS -3, -115 (1.5)
My line: Gb -4.5
Be back w/ some insight and possible additional plays.
:shake:
Sides: 24-21-2 +3.28
Totals: 13-8 +5.55
Teaser: 8-4 +14.35
Parlays 1-2 +1.85
Prop : 4-1 +3.25
Half 5-4 +0.18
Team Totals: 1-1 +0.15
Week 17 has always been about reading between the lines, understanding the head coach. and most importantly, knowing WHEN to bet based on my opinion vs. that of the public. This year, more than ever, game day has produced significant line moves on sides. My strategy for deciphering "smart" money versus public money has remained the same: I pay attention to the line moves on Thursday as my indicating tool. Reason being, is that Thursday is typically the day that the books will raise their bet limits to their respective max numbers. The pro's usually step in on Thurs, while the recreational bettor, who is flush and bet's limits, will likely wait till Sunday. I believe this has been ONE of the drivers behind game day line moves.
WK 17 also produces alot of "must win" angles favored by the public. In this day in age, when everything in on tape, and guys are playing for their next contract, "effort" is typically something I believe every team brings. Ok, enough of my opinion on market influence, and onto my card.
Margin Against the Close
The MAC system requires that a teams MAC score is either + or – 40 and if they are a fade team (score in the +) they had to have covered the prior week. If they are a PLAY ON team, they had to have not covered last week. The purpose of the MAC is to measure a team’s performance against the markets expectations.
Mac Fades
Overall 13-6 +6.40
MAC Play On
Overall 11-4 +6.60
Combined: 24-10 +13.0 70%
Week 16 MAC Plays:
Fades: SEA (+55.5) W
Play on: Colts (-57.5) W
Week 17 MAC Plays:
Fades: AZ (+57)
Play On: TITANS (-50.5)
Wagers Placed:
RAIDERS +7.5 (1.5) and RAIDERS +275 (.25)
My Line: KC -5.5
BILLS +3, -110 (1.50)
My Line: Jets -1.5
PACKERS -3, -115 (1.5)
My line: Gb -4.5
Be back w/ some insight and possible additional plays.
:shake:
