NFL Week 16

[ScopeY]

Typically busy/scrambling prior to 1PM, but pretty much done with my DFS stuff, and less year long fantasy to worry about (did just 6 leagues this year, playoffs in 5, 7th place in the 6th...) Fighting for 3rd in 2, and finals in 2.

Props
1PM
S. Watkins Receiving Yards O42.5 -110
Dj Chark Receiving Yards O48.5 -110
D. Johnson Rush/Rec Yards O88.5 -112
L. Jackson Rushing Yards O62.5 -110
L. Thomas Receptions O4.5 -134

4PM
A. Ekeler Rush/Rec Yards O102.5 -102

Sides
1PM
CIN +7.5 -115 (yes, i'm trusting a shiity qb, but the backdoor should ATLEAST be in play)

PIT -6.5 +200 (small)
PIT -13.5 +450 (tiny)

4PM
PHI/DAL O50.5 -110

Alright, short blips, but I'll add more if we want.
-Mahomes is going for MVP, rodgers has a bad weather scenario going on. No Helaire, Hill will not be 100% (and/or doesn't finish the game)... watkins had over 90 airyards last week on 4 targets... both should see slight upticks... his receiving yards is a no brainer. Dome helps. Quick pace.
-Minshew is back in jacksonville... meaning prosperous days for chark again.... he has been his #1 target since day 1, and we are getting a deflated total with how poor he has been (when minshew wasn't in).... oh, and robinson, who is 2nd in the LEAGUE (Behind cook, just ahead of henry) in usage, is out... leading more opportunities for everyone else... sign me up
-No Duke johnson, coutee kind of banged up, plus matchup for D. Johnson, he should be able to get all of the carries, and fight to lead the team in targets/yards (which he did last week.....)
-Both backup qbs to lamar are out... meaning in a blowout, he will still be used.... so we get a solid 60 minutes of lamar... he's been coming on off late, giants have a solid D line, and a great CB, this should limit his time in the pocket and force him to scramble even more... love his rushing yard prop. He hit over 100 rushing yards on 8 carries just 3 weeks ago.
-So... I love ekeler, and gordon in this den/lac game. The pace is good, and lindsay is out (great for gordon), and henry/allen are out (great for ekeler).... both should see utilization higher than they are accustomed too.... I don't think ekeler has a scenario where he is scripted out. and he plays for the better offense... so I will take priority on him, but gordon rush/rec O90.5 -112 is viable.
-Mclaurin is out, both smith AND haskins love him. last 7 weeks he has been on the field for 97 to 100% of the time (aside from 1 week at 90%), 9/7/16 targets last 3, catching 9/6/13 of them

 

[ScopeY]

I missed that it is glennon this week and not minshew, Week 13 they played together, Chark had 7 targets and 132 air yards, in a relatively close game, going to still advise it

 

[SIGO]

Great stuff, scope.

 

[B.A.R.]

Helluva info thread and looks like props went 4-2...Bengals..over in Dallas..


Great Day!

 

[HUNT]

Good job scopey. Looking forward to nhl?

 

[ScopeY]

Not sure if watkins would have hit it but him going out later in the second half doesn't help... ekeler wasn't fully used until the 2nd half, and was a bit to late.

Best lineup in Fanduel landed in 38th in their big tourney, I'll post a snippet after looking at this monday nighter if anyone wants to see the lineup. Only bad play by me was full fading watson, the top 4 lineups had him paired with cooks (if i'm not mistaken).... still had a shot at a higher payday if hurts doesn't have 2 redzone turnovers in last 6 minutes (that last one was a bit fugazzi)

Helluva info thread and looks like props went 4-2...Bengals..over in Dallas..


Great Day!

Thanks for the words bar!

Good job scopey. Looking forward to nhl?

Thanks hunt, obviously I am, but also not after last years debacle..... we'll get there though

 

[ScopeY]

Vs Pats, Chargers in the first half of their blowout loss ran the ball 6 times in the first half, 5 on the first drive, 1 to open up the second drive..... then never again, and suddenly it was 28-0 at half. (this was across 5 first half drives)

Then the next 2 weeks, Rams/Miami stuck to it, and ran all over the Pats. I know buffalo has struggled this year in that department, but Josh Allen's worst fantasy performance this year came against this team in week 8, in a relatively close game throughout, they only asked allen to throw the ball 18 times (on 22 dropbacks). He has managed 43+ attempts in every game but 1 since then. (that one game, week 12, they led by 18 after first drive of 2nd half, and the next 4 drives all lasted no more than 4 plays). I don't see this playing out much differently than the first showing unless patriots jumped to a 3 score lead with Sp. teams or turnovers....

Z. Moss Rush Attempts O10.5 -118

Moss has covered this number in past 2 weeks, as well as in there last game against patriots. Won't argue Singletary O8.5 either.

I wish it was a smidge higher, but lean Newton U15.5 pass completions... if they game separates, or he plays poorly, I can see them going to Stidham (like in weeks 13/14 for a bit. He was under this number in their last matchup too, and failed to hit it in 4 of his last 6... but going to stay away from it for now.

DFS purposes, on Draftkings, it could make sense to gain leverage by captaining the D/ST, RB1, or maybe TE1 in this specific matchup. typically means Buffalo, moss/singletary (whomever you believe in, maybe both), or knox. Contrarian could be Pats, harris/michel (or white), and can avoid the TE really, as they're thrown to like 2 to 3 times a game at best, and we recently mentioned newtons pass completions and how terrible they are above.

 

[randall_mack]

Great work this wknd, Scope. You are seeing things well....

If i may ask, where are you seeing z. Moss 10.5 number. Seeing 14 +100 at all three of my books is why i ask. Thanks in advance

 

[ScopeY]

Great work this wknd, Scope. You are seeing things well....

If i may ask, where are you seeing z. Moss 10.5 number. Seeing 14 +100 at all three of my books is why i ask. Thanks in advance

Thanks man

This was available on draftkings...I know its simple but I actually didn't check fanduels lines...thankfully in NJ I have access to both