NFL Week 16

[smh212]

YTD: 51-39-1 +20.97
Sides: 22-20-2 +0.00
Totals: 12-8 +4.30
Teaser: 7-4 +11.35
Parlays 1-2 +1.85
Prop : 4-1 +3.25
Half 4-3 +0.18
Team Totals: 1-1 +0.15

Margin Against the Close
The MAC system requires that a teams MAC score is either + or – 40 and if they are a fade team (score in the +) they had to have covered the prior week. If they are a PLAY ON team, they had to have not covered last week. The purpose of the MAC is to measure a team’s performance against the markets expectations.

Mac Fades
Overall 12-6 +5.40
MAC Play On
Overall 10-4 +5.60

Combined: 22-10 +11.0 69%

Week 16 MAC Plays:
Fades: SEA (+55.5)
Play on: Colts (-57.5)

What the MAC board is saying:
Through 15 weeks, we have 13 teams combining to outperform the closing number by 702 pts. That’s an avg of 50 pts per team. However, 3 teams – Carolina (+136), Az (+104), and Pitt (+82.5) combine for 322 of those points, amounting to 46% of that 702. The median of +31, may just be a better indicator.

As for the bottom, the Ravens (-59), Saints (-65), Eagles (-71), Dolphins (-72), and Colts (-74) are all teams that before the season began were considered playoff teams. The Ravens and Colts can point to injury. The Saints, Eagles, and Dolphins have deeper issues. 19 teams have a negative MAC, adding up to -745 pts. Houston (-2), Jax (-4), and Tb (-4), have been surprises despite their current – numbers.

So where does that leave us heading into the last two weeks?
Teams that may present value due to falling out of favor w/ public:

1. Miami: Overall MAC -72. MAC since week 7 = -74.

The public does not like teams that don’t put points on the board, and their recent result against SD won’t help.

1. Cleveland: Overall MAC -87.5. MAC since week 7 = -84

See above. Add in coach likely to get fired, and inflated lines should come our way.

1. Buffalo: Overall MAC = -21.5. MAC since week 7 = -23

Public hasn’t been able to figure out this team all year. McCoy injury, and questions about Rex should fuel fire.

Team that I’m looking to fade: PHILADELPHIA: Overall MAC -71. MAC since week 7: -85.5
The Eagles offense has been terrible, and the defense even worse.
Consider last 6 weeks OFFENSE:
Yds/play 23[SUP]rd[/SUP]
Yds/rush 28[SUP]th[/SUP]
Avg pts scored: 20.8
Ranked 25[SUP]th[/SUP] and 24[SUP]th[/SUP] respectively in times sacked, and sack yds
Consider last 6 weeks DEFENSE:
31[SUP]st[/SUP] in pts against
32[SUP]nd[/SUP] in rushing yds allowed
32[SUP]nd[/SUP] in yds/game
30[SUP]th[/SUP] in pts/play
30[SUP]th[/SUP] in pts/min poss
30[SUP]th[/SUP] in yardage differential (-84.33)

12/24 play:
2 team teaser: OAKLAND PK and BUFFALO PK (3)
I really like OAK in this spot. SD off emotional win, and now OAK playing what may be THEIR last home game, AND playing for Charles Woodson, who many players have tweeted, they want to get a home win for Charles.
Buffalo is more if a bet AGAINST Dallas, who will be starting Kellen Moore on the road.

More later…..GL.

 

[B.A.R.]

GL bud, Happy Holidays and cheers to a tremendous season:cheers3:

 

[smh212]

Thanks BAR, You too. Wearing my Woodson Oakland jersey today.

 

[smh212]

12/24

OAKLAND -5.5 (1) and UNDER 46 (1.25)
My Line: OAK -7 and 43
My power rating says Oakland -6, but I'm adding a full point for the circumstances surrounding this game:
1. Possible last game for Oakland in Oakland
2. Retirement of Woodson has Oakland players hyped to send him out on top
3. SD off emotional game of their own last week. Players stayed on field to sign autographs and show appreciation the fans. At the end of the day, SD is not very good.

As far as the total is concerned, it appears priced to include all games played this year by both clubs, whereas I like the focus on the last 4-6 games a team has played. Additionally, we have the false final from the first matchup, where Oak lead 30-6 at half, thanks to turnovers by SD, and then allowed 23 4th qtr pts to produce a 37-29 final.

Good Luck.

:shake:

 

[Tito]

bol smh!

 

[emkee]

Happy Holidays bro.

Great season so far and good luck going forward.

Leaning da Raidahz myself.

 

[smh212]

Thanks Tito and Emkee. Looking forward to starting the NBA campaign soon.

Not happy that Pinny is showing a 4.5 now. That being said, game day line moves on sides have been crazy this year, and mostly incorrect.

 

[smh212]

Oakland/SD takeaways:

Was able to stay alive in my teaser with the Oakland win, however, the best play was the UNDER, something that should be noted going forward. Amari Cooper is a shell of himself with the foot injury, but a great amount of credit has to be given to the aggressive nature of the SD defense. It looks as if they have put the pieces together to run the type of defense they want. Not to mention they did a great job, sans Eric Weddle.

 

[~Utah]

hate to see you against Philly, but BOL

 

[TreyDawg]

GL this weekend SMH

 

[smh212]

12/26

WASHINGTON +140(1.25)
Phi/Wash UNDER 9.5,+100 (1st qtr) (1)
Phi/Wash 2nd half and OT -1/2 more points than 1st half (1)

It's week 15, and the Eagles are not a good football team. Moreover, unlike earlier this season, when there was hope for improvement, at this point in the season you are what you are. What the Eagles are is a team lacking identify and confidence. Consider over their last 4 games the offense has accounted for 8 TD's TOTAL. Two of those TD's came late in the 4th when the game was already out of hand. So, to put in context, over the past 4 games, the Eagles offense has generated a whopping 6 TD's.
The UNDER first qtr bet, is due to the style of play Wash, and the fact that the Eagles have started slow all year. I'll take my chances against a TD and a FG.

The bet that their are more points scored in the second half, than the first, also has to do with the Eagles slow starts.

:shake:

 

[Play2win]

Skins ML :shake:
Let's get it!

 

[smh212]

P2W :shake:

Not too many opinions today. Playing the two MACs as they coincide w/ my numbers:

COLTS +110 (1.25)
RAMS +12 (1.25)

 

[smh212]

MAC Plays now 24-10 heading into the last week of the regular season. Capping the last regular season week of the NFL requires a good amount of reading in order to determine a teams mindset heading into the finale. As such MAC plays will still be listed if they fit the criteria, but I suspect a good amount of *'s as was the case last season.

The MAC get's reformulated for the playoffs. The conclusion of this season will bring two full seasons of the MAC system. The sample size, IMO, is still not large enough to warrant special considerations with regards to bet size, as betting a % of my bankroll will still be the case. However, I have identified systems w/in the system, which may present an opportunity for larger investments in 2016.

Good Luck to those playing the Giants/Minny game tonight. On that note, if someone could tell me what the hell happened to Hakeem Nicks (now a Giant again), I'd appreciate it.

Lastly, congrats to Washington Redskin fans for winning the division. I hate your football team, as I do the Giants, and Cowboys (although I hate the Cowboys more than any professional sports team), but the Skins at least have game plan, one that they implemented nicely last night - despite MeSean Jackson pouting like MeSean does.

 

[twinkie13]

Love this MAC system....I didn't play it, but I followed along all year. I hope you return next year with it. Maybe we can improve it some?

I am open to help bro!

 

[TreyDawg]

Helluva year SMH. Nice work with the MAC plays. Definitely interested to watch this going forward. And nice hit on the Skins by the way