smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
Sides: 39-26-2 +10.02
Totals: 17-21-1 -7.71
Tease 9-7 -3.0
Half: 5-3 +1.25
Player Props: 21-14 +1.83
91-71-2 +2.9
Passed the Denver game. Made it 10 and 56
Was/Atl
My line: Atl 7 47
Washington is a complete mess. From top to bottom. One has to speculate the players have started to tune out the coach. Or they may rally around Kirk Cousins. Atl has not met expectations this year, but it’s clear that injuries really brought this team down. I don’t think they have given up on the year, and at home, I expect a full effort. Posted number is right mine, but ATL has makings of a TEASER CANDIATE.
Sf/Tb
My line: Sf -5 43
LEAN TAMPA
Even with the posted number matching mine, I’m leaning TB here. After a horrendous start, TB has turned it around. Good spot as well as they catch SF off an emotional and physical game against SF. Tampa playing as good as ball anyone right now, and a TB SU WIN would not surprise me the least.
AZ/Tenny
My Line: Az -1.5 41.5
LEAN TENNY
Time change here, benefits the Cards, but my numbers say Tenny. The public will remember Tenny allowing 51 points on at Denver last week and the Cards dominating the Rams at home and pulling out a 20 pt win. Cross country travel, cold weather conditions, and Az w/ Sea and SF on deck…this one ponts to TENNY for me.
No/Stl
My line: No -5.5 47
I haven’t been able to get a good read on STL all season. STL is a sandwich game for the Saints as they played Carolina last week and have them again next week at STL. Is there room for STL to slide in a steel one? Maybe. Line has crept up 6, If I can find a “7” on STL that will be the side for me.
Sea/Nyg
My line: 7.5 47
LEAN NYG +7
Sea is 4-1 SU on the read in the east and central time zones. Avg margin of victory is 6 pts. Largest spread was on 10/28 where they found themselves -14, and failed to cover (they won by 5). PR numbers all put in double digits. However, I’m willing to throughout the SD game, and focus on the fact that the interior of the Giants DL is strength, and the interior of the Seahawks OL is a weakness. Pride will be on the line for NY, and I think that matter. Sea off a tough SF game and have another divisional opponent next net week. My number reflects that Sea is better than a TD against NY, but much like the TB game, I’m inclined to play the HOME team here or pass. My number says over, but my total formula needs tweaking. Right now I have it 27-20. The odds makers are looking more like 24-17. Keep in mind, while the Giants did bring their record to respectability, they are eliminated from the playoffs, and the teams they have built were either just bad, or not running on a full tank of gas.
Chi/Cle
My line: Cle -1 42
I find it very Iinteresting that coach Trestman is going to Cutler over Josh. Josh throws a different ball than Jay that will have a significant effect, especially early on, as the WR, TE’s, RB’s, and espiacally the o-line to adjust. Needless to say, I think the change in QB is going to have a negative effect on Chicago. I don’t see it as an improvement, and that is reflected in my number. The one constant for Cleveland, has been there defense. If they can get a full game out of Campbell, there is no reason they can’t win this thing SU.
NOTE: I jumped of the rotation order for some unknown reason. Blame it my kids.
Ne @Cle
My Line: Ne -2 44
Just how important was Gronk to the NE offense? I borrowed this from Profootballfocus.com:
Despite playing in just seven games this season, he ranks second among all tight ends with a +12.4 grade. He also led all tight ends with 2.75 Yards per Route Run, and ranked third at his position in Drop Rate after dropping just two passes. Gronkowski’s impact on the Patriots offense was profound. After averaging less than 21 points without the former Wildcat, New England put up 32 points per game in seven games with Gronkowski. Tom Brady had just two games with a passer rating of 90 or better in six games without Gronkowski, compared to 5 of 7 games with a 90+ rating with his favorite target active.
Pretty heavy shit. Miami has been up and down all season. Personally, I’m 3-2-1 betting Miami. It’s all on the line tomorrow for a Dolphins team that is 3-3 SU at home with an avg win number of +0.2 and total margin of +1. I think Tannehill is growing up, and will a solid NFL QB, despite a 55.9 accuracy % when under pressure. Mia boasts one of the best D-lines in the NFL, and I’m a believer in coach Philbin. So, despite the game opening at my number it has moving to Miami -1, it’s obvious the value is gone, and given the Dolphins lack of home field advantage, you may even say the value now lies with NE. Well, I put a lot of stock into the market. I’m going to wait close to game time, but it will be MIAMI for me tomorrow. Besides a recreational player like me, can’t expect to get the best of a number 80% of the time…..maybe one day.
Hou @ Indy
My line: 8.5 47
The Colts are straight Schizo. Against what I consider to be “quality opponents”, the Colts are 3-4 with an avg outcome of +18. Lucky for them they fact a another bottom feeder in Houston this week, however, I did not expect to see a “5”. Maybe its due to Indy already clinching a playoff spot, but one would think they have some things to work on. Don’t like to fight the market, but this one seems a bit too low.
Buf@Jax
My line: Buf -1.5 43.5
Next.
Phila @ Min
My line: Phi -3.5 47
Injuries AP and Gehardt give me pause, but this this line is getting a little too high. Despite their poor record, Minny give it their all every game. I’m going to see if a “7” pops here, but I’m LEANING MINNY.
Nyj @ Car
MY line: Car -13.5 41
Open of 11, now down 10 somewhat of surprise. I don’t see how the Jets are going to score. Geno has been horrible on the road, and Carolina is looking for a bounce back from the bad Monday night loss at New Orleans. With the number not as high as I would have thought, CAROLINA makes my list of teaser candidates.
Kc @ Oak
My line: KC -7 41
Not sure where the hell the 3.5 at open came. Since it has moved to 5. The 3.5 has me wondering what I’m missing, and I will be sure to take another look in AM. For now hard no to like KC at anything less than a TD.
GB/Dal
My line: Dal -6 48
GB needs this game bad…..so does Dallas. Dallas defense is porous, and w/ another week under his belt, I gotta believe that Flynn is feeling more comfortable. Believe there are other games that will get my money, as the price appears to be right. Small lean towards GB.
Cin/Pitt
My line: Cincy -3.5 43
Cincy has a chance to take care of business and lock down a playoff spot against a team that is usually looking to do just that against Cincy. Teams know each other very well, and the record get’s thrown out. Andy Dalton holds the key, because the old Steelers secondary is showing their age and AJ Green will be open. Some serious reverse line movement, gives me pause on this one, almost to the point where it’s Pitt or not nothing….
Have a good amount of reading tomorrow…..may result in some adjustments, and plays will be posted. Sticking to sides, teasers, and player props, unless a total really pops. With over 10 units won on my side plays, I’d be an asshole not focus my attention there. Catch y’all in the AM. Week 15:
Totals: 17-21-1 -7.71
Tease 9-7 -3.0
Half: 5-3 +1.25
Player Props: 21-14 +1.83
91-71-2 +2.9
Passed the Denver game. Made it 10 and 56
Was/Atl
My line: Atl 7 47
Washington is a complete mess. From top to bottom. One has to speculate the players have started to tune out the coach. Or they may rally around Kirk Cousins. Atl has not met expectations this year, but it’s clear that injuries really brought this team down. I don’t think they have given up on the year, and at home, I expect a full effort. Posted number is right mine, but ATL has makings of a TEASER CANDIATE.
Sf/Tb
My line: Sf -5 43
LEAN TAMPA
Even with the posted number matching mine, I’m leaning TB here. After a horrendous start, TB has turned it around. Good spot as well as they catch SF off an emotional and physical game against SF. Tampa playing as good as ball anyone right now, and a TB SU WIN would not surprise me the least.
AZ/Tenny
My Line: Az -1.5 41.5
LEAN TENNY
Time change here, benefits the Cards, but my numbers say Tenny. The public will remember Tenny allowing 51 points on at Denver last week and the Cards dominating the Rams at home and pulling out a 20 pt win. Cross country travel, cold weather conditions, and Az w/ Sea and SF on deck…this one ponts to TENNY for me.
No/Stl
My line: No -5.5 47
I haven’t been able to get a good read on STL all season. STL is a sandwich game for the Saints as they played Carolina last week and have them again next week at STL. Is there room for STL to slide in a steel one? Maybe. Line has crept up 6, If I can find a “7” on STL that will be the side for me.
Sea/Nyg
My line: 7.5 47
LEAN NYG +7
Sea is 4-1 SU on the read in the east and central time zones. Avg margin of victory is 6 pts. Largest spread was on 10/28 where they found themselves -14, and failed to cover (they won by 5). PR numbers all put in double digits. However, I’m willing to throughout the SD game, and focus on the fact that the interior of the Giants DL is strength, and the interior of the Seahawks OL is a weakness. Pride will be on the line for NY, and I think that matter. Sea off a tough SF game and have another divisional opponent next net week. My number reflects that Sea is better than a TD against NY, but much like the TB game, I’m inclined to play the HOME team here or pass. My number says over, but my total formula needs tweaking. Right now I have it 27-20. The odds makers are looking more like 24-17. Keep in mind, while the Giants did bring their record to respectability, they are eliminated from the playoffs, and the teams they have built were either just bad, or not running on a full tank of gas.
Chi/Cle
My line: Cle -1 42
I find it very Iinteresting that coach Trestman is going to Cutler over Josh. Josh throws a different ball than Jay that will have a significant effect, especially early on, as the WR, TE’s, RB’s, and espiacally the o-line to adjust. Needless to say, I think the change in QB is going to have a negative effect on Chicago. I don’t see it as an improvement, and that is reflected in my number. The one constant for Cleveland, has been there defense. If they can get a full game out of Campbell, there is no reason they can’t win this thing SU.
NOTE: I jumped of the rotation order for some unknown reason. Blame it my kids.
Ne @Cle
My Line: Ne -2 44
Just how important was Gronk to the NE offense? I borrowed this from Profootballfocus.com:
Despite playing in just seven games this season, he ranks second among all tight ends with a +12.4 grade. He also led all tight ends with 2.75 Yards per Route Run, and ranked third at his position in Drop Rate after dropping just two passes. Gronkowski’s impact on the Patriots offense was profound. After averaging less than 21 points without the former Wildcat, New England put up 32 points per game in seven games with Gronkowski. Tom Brady had just two games with a passer rating of 90 or better in six games without Gronkowski, compared to 5 of 7 games with a 90+ rating with his favorite target active.
Pretty heavy shit. Miami has been up and down all season. Personally, I’m 3-2-1 betting Miami. It’s all on the line tomorrow for a Dolphins team that is 3-3 SU at home with an avg win number of +0.2 and total margin of +1. I think Tannehill is growing up, and will a solid NFL QB, despite a 55.9 accuracy % when under pressure. Mia boasts one of the best D-lines in the NFL, and I’m a believer in coach Philbin. So, despite the game opening at my number it has moving to Miami -1, it’s obvious the value is gone, and given the Dolphins lack of home field advantage, you may even say the value now lies with NE. Well, I put a lot of stock into the market. I’m going to wait close to game time, but it will be MIAMI for me tomorrow. Besides a recreational player like me, can’t expect to get the best of a number 80% of the time…..maybe one day.
Hou @ Indy
My line: 8.5 47
The Colts are straight Schizo. Against what I consider to be “quality opponents”, the Colts are 3-4 with an avg outcome of +18. Lucky for them they fact a another bottom feeder in Houston this week, however, I did not expect to see a “5”. Maybe its due to Indy already clinching a playoff spot, but one would think they have some things to work on. Don’t like to fight the market, but this one seems a bit too low.
Buf@Jax
My line: Buf -1.5 43.5
Next.
Phila @ Min
My line: Phi -3.5 47
Injuries AP and Gehardt give me pause, but this this line is getting a little too high. Despite their poor record, Minny give it their all every game. I’m going to see if a “7” pops here, but I’m LEANING MINNY.
Nyj @ Car
MY line: Car -13.5 41
Open of 11, now down 10 somewhat of surprise. I don’t see how the Jets are going to score. Geno has been horrible on the road, and Carolina is looking for a bounce back from the bad Monday night loss at New Orleans. With the number not as high as I would have thought, CAROLINA makes my list of teaser candidates.
Kc @ Oak
My line: KC -7 41
Not sure where the hell the 3.5 at open came. Since it has moved to 5. The 3.5 has me wondering what I’m missing, and I will be sure to take another look in AM. For now hard no to like KC at anything less than a TD.
GB/Dal
My line: Dal -6 48
GB needs this game bad…..so does Dallas. Dallas defense is porous, and w/ another week under his belt, I gotta believe that Flynn is feeling more comfortable. Believe there are other games that will get my money, as the price appears to be right. Small lean towards GB.
Cin/Pitt
My line: Cincy -3.5 43
Cincy has a chance to take care of business and lock down a playoff spot against a team that is usually looking to do just that against Cincy. Teams know each other very well, and the record get’s thrown out. Andy Dalton holds the key, because the old Steelers secondary is showing their age and AJ Green will be open. Some serious reverse line movement, gives me pause on this one, almost to the point where it’s Pitt or not nothing….
Have a good amount of reading tomorrow…..may result in some adjustments, and plays will be posted. Sticking to sides, teasers, and player props, unless a total really pops. With over 10 units won on my side plays, I’d be an asshole not focus my attention there. Catch y’all in the AM. Week 15:
