smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
Week 15:
YTD: 48-37-1 +19.51
Sides: 19-18-1 -1.57
Totals: 12-8 +4.30
Teaser: 7-4 +11.35
Parlays 1-2 +1.85
Prop : 4-1 +3.25
Half 4-3 +0.18
Team Totals: 1-1 +0.15
Don't forget to tune in at 8:25 to the NFL Network so you can watch terrible football. Yes, the 4-9 Cowgirls will be displaying their complete ineptitude. On display will be "how not to build a roster 101", as the Cowboys will trot out a QB who started the season as 3rd string for the Buffalo Bills. I hate Dallas, and I for one will not be watching their crap brand of football. Jason Garrett has shown his true colors this year, but hey, there is always next season ladies........:rofl:
Let's get to work:
Margin Against the Close
The MAC system requires that a teams MAC score is either + or – 40 and if they are a fade team (score in the +) they had to have covered the prior week. If they are a PLAY ON team, they had to have not covered last week. The purpose of the MAC is to measure a team’s performance against the markets expectations.
Mac Fades
Overall 10-5 +4.50 (66%)
MAC Play On
Overall 9-3 +5.70 (75%)
Combined: 19-8 +10.20 70%
Week 11 MAC plays:
Fade: KC (+55)L
Play on: GB (-46.5)W
Week 12 MAC Plays:
Fade: CAR (+56.5) L, KC (+78)L
Play On: NYJ (-41) W, SD (-44)W, CLE (-55)L
Week 13 MAC Plays:
Fade: CAR (+76.5)W, KC (+81.5)L, CHI (+49)W, HOU (+52.5)W
Play on: PHILA (-76.5)W, STL (-47)L, NO (-61)W, CLE (-56)L
Week 14 MAC Plays:
Fades: CAR (+64) L, KC (+64) W, DET W(+54)
Play On: STL (-65.5) W, NO (-58.5) W, CLE W (-75.5)
Week 15 MAC Plays:
Fades: CAR (+93), PITT (+61), SEA (+55)
Play On: ATL (-50), IND (-42.5)
MAC plays have been on absolute fire over the past two weeks posting a 10-4 record combined on the “fades” and “play ons”. On the season, the plays are hitting at a 70% clip. Last year the system ended the regular season 32-18 a 64% number. Still, to date the system has produced a total of 77 plays. Hardly a sample size that makes you want to quit your day job, but using the bye-products of the system has paid dividends. A prime example is my record this year on teasers. A major factor in selecting teams to play in teaser is using their MAC number. Teams that produce consistent MAC numbers are excellent candidates for teasers, as it paints a clear picture of how consistent a team is against the closing number. Of course, you can’t just take a team’s MAC number for a given week at face value. When a team throws up a -35 in week, that game gets investigated. Where there an inordinate amount of scores on special teams, pick 6’s, fumble recoveries, etc. Did the team sustain a major injury? Another bye product has been using the MAC to find teams, which the oddsmakers are slow to upgrade or downgrade. At it’s core the MAC is wonderful a predicting teams that will get shaded one way or the other due to the prior weeks performance. I have the number somewhere, but off the top of my head, I believe that over the last two seasons, teams that posted a -28> MAC one week were 11-3 ATS the following week. Before I get into this week’s card, special recognition needs to be awarded to the ATLANTA FALCONS.
The Falcons have compiled on of the most pathetic runs in MAC history. Everyone is aware of their current 0-8 ATS record, but last week’s -29 MAC is by far their worst performance, and brings their MAC over their last games to -88. Now, the Cleveland Browns set the bar high with their 0-6 ATS run from week 7-13 in which they posted a -94.5 MAC, and we saw what they did last week with their SU win at home over the Blaine Gabbert led 49ers. Could Atlanta, with their -50 MAC over their last 4 be in line for a cover this week as 3 point dogs at the RED HOT Jacksonville Jaguars, the same Jaguars that have covered 4 of their last 6? NO DOUBT. Yes, Jax is 4-2 in their last 6 (I had the closing number in the Tenny game as Tenny -2.5, Jax lost by 3) – but their MAC over that period is +36. Consider that their previous high + Mac was +22 in week 7 of the 2014 season. The markets have dubbed Jax a 3 pt favorite (3.5 open at Pinny was knocked down immediately), on paper this a perfect storm for a play on ATLANTA. While I will be betting Atlanta, it will be a normal wager, as backing a team that may have the motor running on the U-Haul, is not a team which I want to make a significant investment on.
Will be back with my opinions on week 15.
YTD: 48-37-1 +19.51
Sides: 19-18-1 -1.57
Totals: 12-8 +4.30
Teaser: 7-4 +11.35
Parlays 1-2 +1.85
Prop : 4-1 +3.25
Half 4-3 +0.18
Team Totals: 1-1 +0.15
Don't forget to tune in at 8:25 to the NFL Network so you can watch terrible football. Yes, the 4-9 Cowgirls will be displaying their complete ineptitude. On display will be "how not to build a roster 101", as the Cowboys will trot out a QB who started the season as 3rd string for the Buffalo Bills. I hate Dallas, and I for one will not be watching their crap brand of football. Jason Garrett has shown his true colors this year, but hey, there is always next season ladies........:rofl:
Let's get to work:
Margin Against the Close
The MAC system requires that a teams MAC score is either + or – 40 and if they are a fade team (score in the +) they had to have covered the prior week. If they are a PLAY ON team, they had to have not covered last week. The purpose of the MAC is to measure a team’s performance against the markets expectations.
Mac Fades
Overall 10-5 +4.50 (66%)
MAC Play On
Overall 9-3 +5.70 (75%)
Combined: 19-8 +10.20 70%
Week 11 MAC plays:
Fade: KC (+55)L
Play on: GB (-46.5)W
Week 12 MAC Plays:
Fade: CAR (+56.5) L, KC (+78)L
Play On: NYJ (-41) W, SD (-44)W, CLE (-55)L
Week 13 MAC Plays:
Fade: CAR (+76.5)W, KC (+81.5)L, CHI (+49)W, HOU (+52.5)W
Play on: PHILA (-76.5)W, STL (-47)L, NO (-61)W, CLE (-56)L
Week 14 MAC Plays:
Fades: CAR (+64) L, KC (+64) W, DET W(+54)
Play On: STL (-65.5) W, NO (-58.5) W, CLE W (-75.5)
Week 15 MAC Plays:
Fades: CAR (+93), PITT (+61), SEA (+55)
Play On: ATL (-50), IND (-42.5)
MAC plays have been on absolute fire over the past two weeks posting a 10-4 record combined on the “fades” and “play ons”. On the season, the plays are hitting at a 70% clip. Last year the system ended the regular season 32-18 a 64% number. Still, to date the system has produced a total of 77 plays. Hardly a sample size that makes you want to quit your day job, but using the bye-products of the system has paid dividends. A prime example is my record this year on teasers. A major factor in selecting teams to play in teaser is using their MAC number. Teams that produce consistent MAC numbers are excellent candidates for teasers, as it paints a clear picture of how consistent a team is against the closing number. Of course, you can’t just take a team’s MAC number for a given week at face value. When a team throws up a -35 in week, that game gets investigated. Where there an inordinate amount of scores on special teams, pick 6’s, fumble recoveries, etc. Did the team sustain a major injury? Another bye product has been using the MAC to find teams, which the oddsmakers are slow to upgrade or downgrade. At it’s core the MAC is wonderful a predicting teams that will get shaded one way or the other due to the prior weeks performance. I have the number somewhere, but off the top of my head, I believe that over the last two seasons, teams that posted a -28> MAC one week were 11-3 ATS the following week. Before I get into this week’s card, special recognition needs to be awarded to the ATLANTA FALCONS.
The Falcons have compiled on of the most pathetic runs in MAC history. Everyone is aware of their current 0-8 ATS record, but last week’s -29 MAC is by far their worst performance, and brings their MAC over their last games to -88. Now, the Cleveland Browns set the bar high with their 0-6 ATS run from week 7-13 in which they posted a -94.5 MAC, and we saw what they did last week with their SU win at home over the Blaine Gabbert led 49ers. Could Atlanta, with their -50 MAC over their last 4 be in line for a cover this week as 3 point dogs at the RED HOT Jacksonville Jaguars, the same Jaguars that have covered 4 of their last 6? NO DOUBT. Yes, Jax is 4-2 in their last 6 (I had the closing number in the Tenny game as Tenny -2.5, Jax lost by 3) – but their MAC over that period is +36. Consider that their previous high + Mac was +22 in week 7 of the 2014 season. The markets have dubbed Jax a 3 pt favorite (3.5 open at Pinny was knocked down immediately), on paper this a perfect storm for a play on ATLANTA. While I will be betting Atlanta, it will be a normal wager, as backing a team that may have the motor running on the U-Haul, is not a team which I want to make a significant investment on.
Will be back with my opinions on week 15.
