NFL Week 14

smh212 · Dec 8, 2013

YTD:

[FONT=&quot]Sides: 36-25-2 +7.71 [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Totals: 17-18-1 -4.95 [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Tease 8-7 -5.0 [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]Half: 5-3 +1.25 [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Player Props: 20-12 +2.93[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]71-65 +1.94 [/FONT]

Swept the board last week, and it felt good. Did not post my MNF football UNDER play, it hit, but I never would have guessed it would be due to the Saints scoring 7 pts.

Kc/Wash:
My Line: KC -4 42.5
Weather could be a factor as it’s supposed to snow, sleet, etc. Ground game will be prevalent as neither team can throw anyway, This favors the Skins, in addition to the fact the KC is in crap form. That being said, Wash was eliminated from the playoffs last week, so who knows what their mental state is going to be. Reid knows Wash well from his Phila days, and expect them Charles to be featured, and Smith to manage. LEAN UNDER.

KC gains least yards per pass attempt in NFL.
Washington yields most yards per pass attempt in NFL

Min/Balt

My Line: Bal -8.5 39.5
Weather will have an effect here as well. I’ve been betting Baltimore during their current winning streak as I believe they are hitting their peak. Are they a great football team? Hell no. Minny actually gets the edge on both O and D lines according to my numbers. They enter this one off a huge OT division win against a rival. Road dome team, playing non-conf playoff team hitting top form, eliminates any thoughts of Minny. Elvis may miss, which hurts, but Upshaw is capable.: LEAN BALTY AS TEASE CANDIDATE. LEAN UNDER as well. Minnesota giving up most points per game in the NFL, yet total keeps dropping…..Only one team with a worse “yards per play” on offense than Baltimore.

Cle/Ne

My Line: Ne -10 44
This line may or may not drop, but I’m hesitant to back Cleveland, because if Campbell gets hurt, I want no part of Brandon Weeden . He’s been jerked around by the organization, and if not for Josh Gordon, this team would be even more pathetic. I do, however, have interest in the UNDER. Cleveland has a nice defense (Browns best defense in NFL (per play), and even though NE will be missing pieces on defense, Cleveland doesn’t have the personnel to take advantage.

Oak/NyJ

My line: Ny -2.5 36 (UNDER 39.5, 1.25)
PLAY ON THE UNDER. Where the hell are the points going to come from? There’s tape on McGloin now, and Oak will be without their top 3 options at RB and top option at WR w/ no D.Moore. The Jets offense is a train wreck, that does play better at home. Still, there is uncertainty abound on the offensive side of the ball for both teams. Oak is 5-1 ATS this season, out-performing the point spread by 19 points. Still, I can’t bet a team that has as many holes as Oak…it’s looking like UNDER for me. Last 3 weeks on offense:
Second least productive team gained 4.6 yards per play on offense. Jets gained only 4.0 yards per play
Relevant Trend: Jets as home favorite: 51-86 ATS

Ind/Cin

My line: Cin -6.5 43
Another game that will have weather implications. UNDER is lean for sure, and Cincy has the look of an excellent teaer candidate. Indy has been getting by with smoke and mirrors, and while the play of Dalton has fallen off as of late, I like the Bengals to get it done here. Consider, if Cincy had won two recent OT games, they would be 10-1 SU last 11. TEASE candidate w/ Balty.

Car/Saints

My line: No -3 45
Not much to say here. Should be a great game, if I had to bet I would play under, but that’s about it..some trends of interest:
Teams off Seattle game: 17-37-4 (31%) the next week (last 4 seasons)
Teams favored the week after playing the Seahawks: 4-18 ATS last 22

Panthers have covered 7 of 8
Early Line on this game (before last week’s games): Saints -4.5

Det/Phi

My line: Phi -2 51
LEAN UNDER here as the Eagles defense is much improved over the last 6 weeks, and Detroit doesn’t put up pinball numbers on the road. Still, Detroit has a bad secondary, and it’s possible that a shootout could breakout. Detroit needs 24 points to win this one….better plays on the board. Two negatives to my “under” look: Only Denver has a better offensive “Yards Per Play” than Philly.

Philly defense yields the most yards passing per game in the NFL.

Mia/Pitt

My line: Pitt -2 42
Neither team can run the ball worth a damn, and the Steelers will be starting their 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] center of the season. Weather may play a factor in this one as well, but I see no reason why Miami cannot win this football game. At 3,5, I will likely play MIAMI.
Trend: Road team in Miami games 55-36 ATS

Ten/Den

My line: Den -9.5 47
For starters, it’s going to be freezing in Denver today. We all know the whole Peyton cold weather thing, so expect to see him break out his Michael Jackson glove today. The Titans are still in the playoff hunt and have one of the best secondaries in the league. If Fitz doesn’t turn the ball over, as he is prone to do, then the Titans should keep it under double digits. I favor TENNY and the UNDER here. Applicable trend; Any road underdog off a road loss: 64% ATS since 2003. 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] straight road game for Tenny (NFL teams playing 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] straight road game have covered 8 of last 9).

Stl/Az

My Line: AZ -4.5 43
Under coach Fisher, STL has beaten AZ in 3 straight, including week 1’s 27-24 triumph in STL. That game feels like 10 years ago, as AZ turned out to be better than I had projected, and the Rams worse. Back in week 1, I was convinced that STL would be able to generate a tremendous amount of pressure on Palmer, and they did. STL comes in playing their second straight on the road game and fit into the popular trend; Any road underdog off a road loss: 64% ATS since 2003. My numbers show that STL has been terrible against “quality” opponents this year going 0-4 SU w/ an avg outcome margin of -13.5. According to my PR, AZ is .8 away from being a “quality” team (I have AZ w/ a PR of 92.2, quality = 93 or greater). Fun fact: Palmer on passes of 20 yds or more: 16/59 5 TD’s and 7 Int’s. Now add his elbow issues to the mix. If had access to the “6.5” this game opened at I would be STL, but as it stands, I’m a recreational bettor and as such I get recreational numbers. Will be hunting for a “6”, if found I will be on STL.

Nyg/Sdg

My Line: Sd -5 51
Fantasy nerd alert: Look for Nicks to finally get in the end zone, and Vic Cruz to score a TD. The SD secondary is very bad, and should make for some player props. This one could turn into a shootout, or it could be a dud. Both teams are so damn unpredictable, I don’t really have a feel. However, I will trust my numbers and if I can find a 3 I will bet SD, the OVER may come into play as well.
Chargers: Worst defense in league (yards per play)

Sea/Sf

My Line: PK 40
Seattle has dominated this matchup, and I don’t see where much has changed. Seattle keeps losing CB’s and keeps on chugging. They also own Kaepernick. The one edge SF has is that Seattle’s offensive line has not been very good. Give SF the emotional edge here as they really need this one, but that hasn’t seemed to matter in the past. The value lies with Seattle, but a SF win wouldn’t surprise me…PASS.

Atl/Gb

My line: Gb -3 43
No interest in the side here. You have weather, two teams doing nothing right. Would favor the UNDER if had to play, and may get involved from that standpoint. Packers have lost 5 straight ATS since Rodgers was hurt (losing to the spread by a combined 69 points)

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smh212 · Dec 8, 2013

Ny/Oak UNDER 40 (1.25)
Was/Kc UNDER 44 (1.25)
MIAMI +3, +100 (1) and MIAMI +150 (.25)
BUFFALO +2.5 (1) and BUFFALO +125 (.25)
TENNY +13.5 (1.25)
SAN DIEGO -4 (1.25)

Teaser of the week:

Balt -.5 and Cincy -.5 (2)

Parlay of the week:

I hit the first two legs on the following:

3 team parlay: Risking 50 to win $442
S. Alabama -3 W
Mich St +170 W
Min/Balt UN 41

Looking to at least buy back my original wager. Hoping the Balt total drops so I can get a hedge/middle shot.

Working player props now.

Play2win · Dec 8, 2013

agree SD, lean Tenn. BOL today Smh :cheers:

smh212 · Dec 8, 2013

Good Luck Play.

Adding:

Dalton UNDER 260.5 yds passing, -105 (.5)
BROWNS +10 (1.25)

smh212 · Dec 8, 2013

Best Player Prop on board IMO

ALEX SMITH UNDER 237.5 YDS PASSING (.75)

League avg is 237.5 yds passing
Kc avgs 213 yds passing on season and 193 on the road. Throw in a wintry mix.....and it's hard not to like this one, Washington's piss pass defense be damned!

P-Unit · Dec 8, 2013

love love love the Dalton under yards prop. will be joining you.

smh212 · Dec 8, 2013

Let's get it P-Unit.

smh212 · Dec 8, 2013

Rest of player props

Gonna put rest of player prop bets here:

TANNEHILL OVER 240.5 yds passing (.5)
P.MANNING UNDER 314.5 yds passing (.75)

Timh · Dec 8, 2013

Nice info, BOL Smh.

smh212 · Dec 8, 2013

Thanks Tim.

Adding:

Phi/Det UNDER 52.5 (1)
Just betting soft number from local.

guaranteeed · Dec 8, 2013

gl smh

NFL Week 14

smh212

Awesomeitus Degenerate

smh212

Awesomeitus Degenerate

Play2win

Mod by Monday Morning

smh212

Awesomeitus Degenerate

smh212

Awesomeitus Degenerate

P-Unit

Beacon of Calmness

smh212

Awesomeitus Degenerate

smh212

Awesomeitus Degenerate

Timh

CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim

smh212

Awesomeitus Degenerate

guaranteeed

Pretty much a regular

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