NFL Week 12

[smh212]

Sides: 27-22-2 +2.91
Totals: 12-17-1 -7.60
Tease: 6-6 -7.00
Half: 5-2 +2.25
Player Props: 17-10 +2.65
67-57 -6.79

So how am I 10 games over .500 and down almost 7 units? I bet 1.25 on sides and totals, 2.00 on teases and .50 on halves and player props. It's apparent my record dictates I need to adjust.

ATL/NO UNDER 53 (1.25)
My Line: No -8 46

I make 3 sets of totals for each game. The highest number I got was 48 on this game. I have the probable outcome being 27-17. IF Atl is able to hang with NO then my numbers say the game will be played in the low to mid 20's. When these teams met earlier in the season, a time when ATL was still viable on offense, we saw a final of 20-17. Atl has a poor defense, but it's a division game. There is not going to be anything new here, it's going to come down to execution, tackling, and blocking.

Good Luck.

:shake:

 

[twinkie13]

On it as well

GL to us.

 

[smh212]

Wee 12 cont.....

Thanks Twinkie...nice hit.
Gonna start my Sunday rundown. Will add notes, thoughts and plays as Sunday approaches.

Tb/Det
My line: Det -8.5 47

Detroit lining up as a tease candidate, as I think TB is due for a regression to the mean. Detroit's offense is a beast at home, need to be able to cross the 7 and 3 to pull the trigger on teasing the Lions. TB biggest jump in my PR from week 11.

Jax/Hou
My Line: Hou -10 45

Houston is just befuddling. Statistically they look like a team that's 8-2 not 2-8. Jacksonville has shown small signs of improvement, but they are basically meaningless. Still, my raw numbers say 27-21 Houston. That's a line of 6 and 48. Adjusted number and the number that will go down in my book says 10 and 45, however I lean to the raw numbers on this one. Call it the two bad team theory, the fact is that Jax allows close to 6 yards per play, and Houston runs close to 75 plays per game at home....in the end it's a lean to the OVER.

Min/Gb
My line: GB -5 41

Zero interest in this game. Have absolutely no feel. Of note, Minny: Road underdog off a road loss: 64% since 2003.

Sd/Kc
My Line: Kc -6 41

SD is playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks. Including B2B roadies. The loss and subsequent failure to cover, puts SD into the following trend: Any road underdog off a road loss: 64% ATS since 2003. I wonder if that includes a road dog playing their 4[SUP]th[/SUP] road game in 5 weeks against a team that is 9-1. While we’re talking about situations, the Chiefs are in the middle of Denver sandwich, but I don’t think it matters. Coach Reid will have them focused here, especially off a loss. A win NEXT week over Denver won’t mean as much if they lose to SD. KC’s D has been held sackless the last 2 weeks, but that should change against SD’s patchwork line STRONG LEAN to KC.

Car/Mia
My line: Car -3.5 39.5

The situation calls for a bet on Miami. Panthers have hit their ceiling IMO w/ wins over NE, SF, and division rivals ATL and TB before that, well, that’s tough to top. Cam has never experienced team success like this, and given his immaturity, I would not be surprised if he comes out and lays an egg in South Florida. LEAN MIAMI, waiting till closer to game time to see if the public will pump up Carolina a bit more for me.

Be back tomorrow.

 

[smh212]

Week 12 discussion cont...

Pitt/Cle
My Line: Cle -2 40

In a game where weather could be factor, especially where wind is concerned, running the ball will be a factor. Pitt allows 149.8 yds per game on the ground when playing outside of Heinz. Cle seems to have found a nice back in Chris O, he can catch it and run it out of the backfield. Cle sees a slight bump in their offensive efficiency when playing at home, and hold their opponents to 4.4 YPP at home, a full yard better than the league average. Pitt has not been able to run the ball w/ any consistency all season. Pitt has outgained their opponent on the ground twice all season: At home against Balt (141-82) and two week ago, again at home over Bug (136-95). W/ Haden on Brown, it’s going to be tough for Pitt to get that offense in gear. IMO, anything under a FG favors Cleveland.
Applicable Trend: Pitt: Any team following a win as a home underdog: 5-23 ATS. Will be on CLEVELAND

Chi/Stl
My line: PK 44
I expect the STL defensive line to have a very productive day against the Bears offensive line. Both teams are starting their back up QB’s, and both teams have seen a drop in offensive production. Bears went from averaging 367.3 YPG with Cutler to 290 w/ Cade. In addition YPP has dropped from 5.9 to 4.4. Rams have been as inconsistent has as team can be. I can see this one being bet up to STL -2.5 as they see, to have been getting money this year, but I think there are better opportunities on the board.
Chicago: 7[SUP]th[/SUP] best offense (per play); 27[SUP]th[/SUP] best defense.

Nyj/Balt
My line: Balt -7 38

This is a bet on BALTIMORE for me. Outside of the trend that seems to be prevalent in every game this week (Any road underdog off a road loss: 64% since 2003), I don’t see the Jets doing a damn thing here. My numbers are screaming that the Jets are not as good as their 5-5 record, and Baltimore is not as bad as their 4-6 record. Baltimore’s offensive line has shown some good improvement, which should negate the strength of the Jets D-line. I see the downward trend that Geno Smith is riding continuing here, and Balty taking a double digit win. Call it 24-14.

Ten @ Oak
My line: Ten -2.5 42
Two teams each w/ 4-6 records, however, Tenny is ranked 19 in my PR and Oakland is ranked 30[SUP]th[/SUP]. I expect a severe regression for Mcgloin. Not only do I expect the Titans to beat down the patchwork Oakland line, but Tenny has 2 corners that should dominate the outside. Oakland has little to no home field advantage. Tenny is 4-0 ATS on the road this season, and It’s looking like I will be stepping outside of my comfort level and betting a road favorite.

Ind/Az
My line: Az -1 44

Game has been bet up to AZ -3. I know a lot of stock is being out into the fact that Arians coached the Colts last season. Colts have been getting by w/ a bend but don’t break defense. One thing that does look interesting here is a AZ 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half bet. Also of note is that over their last 6, the Colts are a meager 3-3 scoring only 19.5 ppg allowing 26.3, w/ an average final margin of -6.8. Cards last six show 4-2 w/ 18.3 ppg allowing 16.2 with avg margin of +2.2. A likely pass on side and total, poss plays on halves and player props.

Gonna finish up card and start making bets in AM.

Good Luck.

 

[emkee]

Good reading, Smh.

Best of luck this Sunday.

 

[TheHbomb]

Nice work bro. I'm already on Cleveland myself, as well as the under in Detroit. Also still looking at Miami.

 

[smh212]

Last write ups and PLAYS

Thanks fellas.

Here are my final two write ups. Gonna list all my bets on this post.

Dal/Nyg
My line: Dal -2 43

Nyg 4 straight wins:
GB: Beat Tolzien at home
OAK: home win
@ Phi: Quality win
Min: Freeman start game
Dallas 7-1 ATS off bye, Dallas: Any team off 30+ point loss before bye: 15-4 ATS.
LEAN Dallas

Den/Ne
Ny line: Den -1.5 50

Weather will play a factor here, so I will be on the UNDER. As for the game, if the line goes to Den -3, I will be on NE. For now, NE is a good teaser candidate.

PLAYS:

Nyg/Dal UNDER 44.5 (1.25)
Den/Ne UNDER 53 (1.25)
BALTIMORE -3 (2)
MIAMI +4.5 (1) and MIAMI +170 (.25)
CLEVELAND -1.5 (1.25)
TENNY -2 (1.25)
2T DET -1 and OPEN (want to close w/ NE, but have to wait on local #) (2.5)
Josh McCown UNDER 236.5 yds passing (.5)
Ryan Tannehill OVER 230.5 yds passing (.5)
Joe Flacco OVER 232.5 yds passing (.5)
DALLAS +3 (1)
DALLAS +130 (.25)
PATS +3 (1)
PATS +115 (.25)
P.MANNING UNDER 320.5 passing yds (.5)
BRADY UNDER 288.5 passing yards (.5)

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

BOL smh

 

[smh212]

Thanks Grind.

 

[bones]

great analysis. have a winning day

 

[P-Unit]

good stuff as usual

 

[smh212]

Thanks fellas. I'm adding as the lines move. GL to you guys today.

 

[smh212]

2nd half bet:

COLTS -.5, -110 (2)

Colts 4-1 SU on the road, second half with a +12.6 margin. Can't remember last time the Cards had a lead like this.....foreign territory to them. Let the comeback begin.