NFL Week 12

[smh212]

Will update records later:

Hou/Det UNDER 48.5 (1.5)
MY line: 46

I expect Houston to control the pace in this one with their running attack. A shootout is not what they are looking for. Both teams are stout defensively in the redzone. I favor Det as well, but not pulling the trigger yet on this one. Call it 24-20.

Good Luck.

 

[smh212]

JETS +7, -120 (1.5)
My line: Ne-6

Betting my number,

 

[emkee]

GL bro.

Lean this way too...

 

[smh212]

Week 12 continued

Updated record entering week 12:

Sides: 34-32-2 -2.42
Totals: 7-10 -5.89
Teasers: 7-5 +0.56
48-47-2 -7.75

I just can't get right. Got plenty of time to right this ship, but I'm starting to feel a bit frustrated. My power numbers are showing a wider gap between the good and bad teams. It's not even about talent these days, it's more pure stupidity. I have a new tab on my NFL spreadsheet listing teams that play dumb, i.e., poorly coached football. Keep in mind the coaching goes deeper than the head coach. As with any business, it's about the staff you build. As a business owner myself, I NEVER want to be the smartest individual at my company. The day that happens is the day my company goes down hill. So, here's my short list of the dummies:

In no particular order:

KC, SD, NYJ, OAK, DAL, CAR.

Teams that are close, but I'm giving a pass, but either the foundation is there, or something unusual happened (Like Andy Reid burying his child in August).

JAX, PHI, TB (yes, winning now, but they are unstable), TENNY (you drafted Vince Young), CLEVELAND (find a an identity for gods sake, stop trying to be Phila west), CINCY (just like Dallas, until your owner dies your fucked).

One other note before diving into the card: I'm SHOCKED that Harbaugh is going with Colin over Smith. Smith was like a battered wife till Jim got a hold of him. What kind of message does this send to Alex and to the rest of the club? I think Jim's ego is getting a little bit too big. I hope the Saints beat his brains in.

Ok, back to this week, which is going to feature more wong teasers than usual, due to the number being offered.

Stl/Az UNDER 37 (1.5)
My line: 35

These teams met in week 5. Stl won 17-3. I expect a similar outcome.

Tenn/Jax OVER 44 (1.5)
MY line 48

Henne is an upgrade over Gabbert. The Jax offense actually sounds excited to play this week. We know Jax will take shots, we don't know if they are going to be successful, but I think somone wins this 27-24.

MIAMI +3 (1.25) and MIAMI +130 (.25)
My line: Miami -2

Had Miami not been gotten their asses handed them at home again Tenny, I wouldn't be on this one. Tannehill is regressing and the running game has disappeared. That needs to change if Miami is going to win today. Seattle is the better team, but traveling cross country to the Miami heat is not ideal. Additionally, Russell has terrible road splits.

I will be adding tonight and tomorrow as the markets move. Here are some leans. I'm open for discussion suggestions:

Buf/Ind UNDER
Tam/Atl OVER
SD PK
Saints PK
I like NYG at under 3 and GB at 3 or better.
I'm pretending that there is no Monday Night Game tonight. Aren't we at the point in the season where they can fuck w/ the schedule?

 

[XhuegoX]

I'm a huge 49ers fan and agree with you 100%. Kapernick is still very raw IMO, Chicago beat themselves more than anything last week. I think Kap will struggle big time in the Dome (hope I'm wrong). Very disappointed that Alex Smith isn't starting. Personally I'm going with New Orleans TT Over 24 Points. Can't remember the last time they scored under 24 at home. The 49ers secondary will have trouble against the Saints speed on that surface.


Gl with your selections, hope you have a big week.

 

[Lareux]

I just can't get right. Got plenty of time to right this ship, but I'm starting to feel a bit frustrated. My power numbers are showing a wider gap between the good and bad teams. It's not even about talent these days, it's more pure stupidity. I have a new tab on my NFL spreadsheet listing teams that play dumb, i.e., poorly coached football. Keep in mind the coaching goes deeper than the head coach. As with any business, it's about the staff you build. As a business owner myself, I NEVER want to be the smartest individual at my company. The day that happens is the day my company goes down hill. So, here's my short list of the dummies:

In no particular order:

KC, SD, NYJ, OAK, DAL, CAR.

Teams that are close, but I'm giving a pass, but either the foundation is there, or something unusual happened (Like Andy Reid burying his child in August).

JAX, PHI, TB (yes, winning now, but they are unstable), TENNY (you drafted Vince Young), CLEVELAND (find a an identity for gods sake, stop trying to be Phila west), CINCY (just like Dallas, until your owner dies your fucked).

One other note before diving into the card: I'm SHOCKED that Harbaugh is going with Colin over Smith. Smith was like a battered wife till Jim got a hold of him. What kind of message does this send to Alex and to the rest of the club? I think Jim's ego is getting a little bit too big. I hope the Saints beat his brains in.

Maybe it's just because it's Buffalo and nobody seems to even pay attention, but Chan Gailey should be at the top of this dumb coaches list. He may be a good OC, but he is an absolutely horrible and stupid head coach. When the Bills played Ari and Buffalo punted either late in the 4th or OT instead of attempting a 51 yd FG, Gailey said that in the NFL you don't see 50 yd kicks going in enough to take that risk. At the time, 63% of 50+ yd FGs had been made in the NFL. Seriously Chan, you're the fucking coach of an NFL team for God's sake, would it kill you to actually know some stats and use them?

He also, at one point, said DBs were extremely valuable to have on the roster, and they are always needed....while Buffalo had 2 kickers (FG and KO specialist) on the roster and only 3 or4 CBs. So, if they are that important, why in the hell are you carrying 2 kickers and not an extra DB. Chan Gailey is most certainly an idiot, and it wouldn't take too long to come up with a bunch more examples to prove this.

 

[Marlo]

GL today Man

 

[C-MAN]

Tenny will always cooperate with an over. Good luck.

 

[smh212]

XhuegoX - Hope you hit with the team total. I think this move by Jim has lasting repercussions on this football team.

Laureux - Duly noted. I have added Buffalo to the list. During my days working with NFL personnel I learned how the top teams greatest edge was the ability to manage the 53 man. Your points tell me that Chan is a bit lost in that area, and make no mistake: It has a direct correlation to on the field results.

 

[Play2win]

GL today Smh

 

[guaranteeed]

gl today smh

 

[smh212]

THank you play and Teed.

SAN DIEGO -105 (1.5)
My line: SD -1

As always SD has line issues, what else is new. This bet is about Baltimore's poor performance both on the road and on the West Coast. Baltimore is also ailing, and the Chargers need this one bad, real bad. It's always risky playing SD, but I think they emerge some how.

VIKINGS +7, -120 (1.25) and VIKINGS +235 (.25)
My line: Chi -6

The teaser: Cicny -1 and Miami +10 (2)

 

[smh212]

a rare seond teasers for me:

SD +8 and STL +8 (2)

Good LUck.

 

[Lareux]

And Gailey's horrible coaching shows itself again today....

Paul Hamilton

(WGR 550) -- Just like it’s been for most of the past 12 seasons, December is almost upon us and the Bills season is over. It’s not mathematically over, but it would take more than one miracle for Buffalo to break the longest postseason drought in the NFL.

Bills color analyst Mark Kelso said on the pregame roundtable that if the Bills lose this game then they aren’t a very good football team. I don’t think I need to add to that.

Buffalo lost at Indianapolis by seven points. It was a game that was right there for them to take, but when the season was on the line, Ryan Fitzpatrick threw an interception to a wide open Tom Zbikowski. It wasn't over there because he got the ball back because a hustling Stevie Johnson caused the safety to fumble. Buffalo was driving as the pick happened at the Colts 24. Fitzpatrick then scrambles for six, throws the C.J. Spiller for a loss of four than Spiller drops a pass that would’ve left them short of a first down anyway.

Another reason why the Bills are a bad team is after the Spiller drop it was fourth and eight from the Buffalo 49. There was 4:31 left and the Bills had three timeouts left. Gailey’s thinking the defense had played well, which for the most part it had giving up 13 points. They had held the Colts to 87 yards on 29 carries on the ground which is a three yard per carry average. What they couldn’t do is stop the great Reggie Wayne. Gailey is gutless, punts and he’ll never see the ball again. Why? Because even though Mario Williams had three sacks and Marcell Dareus had one and even though Andrew Luck threw one interception, the rookie was too much for the Bills who don’t have players that can rise to the occasion all that often. This was their season right here. Win and make next week’s game against the Rams mean something, lose and the season’s over and the Colts made it look easy. Indianapolis ran the final 10 plays of the game. As usual, Gailey was wrong. Luck misses Wayne, Donald Brown runs for his longest run of the game, 11 yards and a first down, Brown for one, Luck to Wayne for 14, Brown a one yard loss, Brown a one yard gain and with the season down to one defensive stop on third and 10 from the Colts 31, Stephon Gilmore can’t cover Wayne, commits pass interference and it’s on to three plays out of the victory formation.

Let’s continue this theme of why are the Bills a bad team? Spiller ran for 7.6 yards per carry, but Gailey thought he only needed to carry the ball 14 times and touch it 15. Spiller’s last carry of the game came with 13:33 left. Gailey is the genius and thought Buffalo would be much better off if Ryan Fitzpatrick threw 33 times. See by going that route, you can have both Donald Jones and C.J. Spiller running free down the field and have the franchise quarterback as anointed by Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey overthrow them by at least five yards. On the Jones play, there was no safety there. Fitzpatrick doesn’t need to throw a bullet, he can use the middle of the field and put some air under the ball to allow Jones to go get it, but that’s not his style and it’s why he’s been overthrowing wide open receivers the whole season and costing the Bills some huge plays. It’s much better to have the game in Fitzpatrick’s hands as he was a whopping 4-for-13 on third down. The Colts only outgained the Bills by eight yards and held it for just about three more minutes, but the rookie was 8-of-16 on third down.

Were not done yet, late in the first half the Bills got the ball on their own eight with 58-seconds left in the half. Gailey throws twice to stop the clock, runs once and Indy calls timeout. Luck gets them down to the one and Adam Vinatieri kicks a field goal. That’s just stupid football on any level.

This was a beauty too, since when can’t Rian Lindell kick from 52 yards away. Gailey has been nervous to try long field goals for awhile now. Is Lindell nursing an injury nobody knows about? In the second quarter Buffalo had fourth and 14 at the Colts 34 and punted. IT’S INDOORS!!!!! You can’t try a 52 yard field goal? You know what the punt got them? Indianapolis put together a 12 play/82 yard drive to kick a field goal and take a 10-3 lead. After the game Gailey said, “He might make it, he might not but the better percentage there is to punt.” That just isn’t true. Most coaches want points and try for three there. If he trusted his defense like he stated, then trust them to stop the Colts if Lindell misses.

This is just scratching the surface on why this team is so bad. It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Gailey and Nix both have said since the draft that this is the season where the improvement must happen. This is the season where losing can no longer be tolerated. They are absolutely right and these two men decided they could get to the promise land with Ryan Fitzpatrick as their quarterback and were so sure, had no plan B. Both seem to be out of answers, it’s time to find out if a young, well thought of assistant GM named Doug Whaley has some answers that actually work.