Sunday
Thanks Fellas! Here is my analysis for the rest of week 12. No interest in Sf/Wash, Dal/Nyg (I bet under 47.5 in this on a parlay, and may hedge if second leg hits).
WEEK 12
MAC = Margin Against Close: Metric measures how a team performed against the closing number.
Teams entering the week with a MAC of -40> AND a non-cover are
11-4 ATS
Teams entering the week with a MAC of +40> and a cover are
9-3 ATS
Week 12 candidates: MAC of -40>: SD -48,
Week 12 candidates: MAC of +40> (listed teams should be FADED): KC(W) +41, GB +61, NE +66, MIA +43.5
Cle @ Atl -3 47.5
REF: BRAD ALLEN – No sig trends. Avg total = 47
CLE
Is ATL better than CLEVELAND NOW? Early line (before last week’s games): ATL -1.5
Cleveland Injuries: Injuries on defense: Starting LBs Karlos Dansby(+10.2 PFF grade) and Jabaal Sheard (+6.3 PFF grade) both went out with injuries against Houston. Big drop off in production expected.
Already without starting DE Phil Taylor, and reserve DEs Armonty Bryant and John Hughes.
Barkevious Mingo to start in Sheard’s OLB spot, despite the fact that he is playing with a shoulder harness, has a +6.4 PFF grade, BUT used to playing ~30 snaps per game. Workload to double.
Last 5 weeks, Browns have been outgained 4 times. Outgained by JAX (27[SUP]th[/SUP] in off), OAK (Oak 32[SUP]nd [/SUP]), TB (28[SUP]th[/SUP] in off), and HOU (15[SUP]th[/SUP] in Off).
First three games C. Mack out:
Browns had 83 attempts for 158 yards (1.9 per attempt)
Fourth game:
170 rushing on 52 attempts vs. Bengals (3.3 yards per attempt)
Sunday:
Browns rushed for only 58 yards on 24 carries (2.4 ypc)
Cle avg 79.3 Rush/game L4 - YTD avg is 111. SIGNIFCANT DROP.
Cle Pass attempts / game before Mack injury: 30
Cle pass attempts / game since Mack injury: 35
Browns rushing defense: #30
Browns passing defense (opponent QB rating): #1
Josh Gordon moves the needle, will have immediate impact.
Hoyer completed just 20 passes on 50 attempts last week. Asked to do too much?
Cle -4 mac L4. Mac = 0 for season. Enter this week off second worst mac of year (-20.5), previous worst was wk7 -22 @ Jax. Following week registered a +3.5. Cle +0.6 NET PR L4 vs ytd.
ATL:
42 days since last Atlanta home game – 10/12 vs Chicago.
Coach Smith as a favorite: 37-25 ATS in his coaching career
Atlanta was outgained by Carolina in 19-17 win.(Panthers had been outgained their prior 9 games)
Falcons outscored 91 to 21 in 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter (last eight games)
Falcons defense: #32 (403 yards – only team above 400)
Falcons -1.9 NET PR L4 vs season. 2-2 L4.
Falcons 4 wins this season (2 win vs Tampa, 1 Carolina, 1 vs NO week 1)
Falcons 24[SUP]th[/SUP] in yardage Diff YTD, but that drops to 28[SUP]th[/SUP] over last 4, against BAD TEAMS.
Falcons offense much better in dome, but sample size small.
Atl +9.5 mac L4 (3-1 ATS). -57 mac prior 4 (0-4 ATS). ATL has played the EASIEST schedule in the NFL this season.
Conclusion: Cleveland is the better team, however, ATL historically tough at home. Cleveland injuries are challenging depth. Expect sharps to come in and drive this game off key number. If that does not occur, and a 3.5 becomes available than Cleveland becomes a consideration.
Phila -11 48.5 vs Tenny
REF: Jerome Boger - games he has taken have been mostly blowouts, with only the Week 9 game between the
Rams and
49ers being decided by fewer than 8 points. Avg total = 44. Worked Ten@Ind wk4. Colts won 41-17. Ten 6 penalties for 68 yards, Ind 11 for 88. Of 17 penalties called, 6 resulted in FD.
PHI:
Eagles overrated ATS, but excellent SU Last two seasons:
Philly has won 14 of last 18 regular season games
On one hand, Philly wants to bounce back from last week, but Philly plays at Dallas on short rest(ThanksgivingPhilly is not strong at home covering only 10 of their last 33 home games, BUT 6-2 ATS last 8
Philly -4 turnovers vs. GB (Phila was -5 on the SEASON before last week)
Philly gave up 3 defensive/special teams TDs vs. GB – Opposite of what they have been doing all season.
(Philly had given up only 1 the entire season).
Philly has scored 9 such TDs on the season.
Sanchez not yet comfortable w/ system. Last week struggled w/ pre-snap adjustments due to not enough time on play clock.
GB played NICKEL as their base defense.
Eagles yielded 7.4 yards per play against GB, the most Philadelphia has allowed in a game since 2007 (avg 5.67 against YTD).
Phila -10 mac L4. +32.5 mac YTD. Prior to last week, Phila worst mac score was -5 (wk 8 vs AZ).
Since start of 2013 season (Chip Kelly era), only second time Eagles have been a double digit favorite (last time was week 1 vs Jax).
TENN:
Titans: 3-12 ATS last 15 games
Tennessee is BAD when overmatched on the road: Underdog of 5 or more, the Titans have covered only 6 of 23 ATS.
Tenn short week
Mettenberger threw pic-six INT in 1Q vs. Pitt, but posted best QBR (+110.2) since being named started in wk 8. Posted 93.5 home vs Hou (wk 8), 76 @ Blt (wk 10).
Steelers held the ball from the 6:58 mark to close out the game.
Tenn only 14 FD last week, Pitt 29, BUT Tenny entered 4[SUP]th[/SUP] qtr up 11 pts.
Tenny defense only allowed 17 pts.
Tenny 29[SUP]th[/SUP] in yardage diff last 5
Tenny 31[SUP]st[/SUP] in offense yards/game last 5
Tenny -7 mac L4. -45.5 on year, and -11 since Mettenberger named starter. Tenny +1.9 NET PR L4 vs ytd.
Conclusion: Had Eagles not been embarrassed last week, case could be made for situational play on Tenny, as they are sandwiched between GB and Dallas, but when you lose 53-20, complete focus is to be expected. Line is higher than I made it, but this is a dart game IMO.
Det @ Ne -7 47.5
REF: Tony Corrente – Dogs 5-3 ATS. Avg T = 47. Did Pats Wk2. 22 total penalties called, most his crew has called all season. Pats won 30-7, Pats 15 penalties for 163 yards. Min had 5 penalties result in FD. Pats had 2.
NE +114 MAC since week 5. Once of 3 teams w/ mac greater than 80 entering week 12 (KC, and GB other two). LIONS a mac play
NE:
Pats best team in football since week 5. +114 mac (packers 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] at +92). Pats 5-1 ATS during this time. Loss came week 7 @ Jets, on short week. NE won 27-25 as 9.5 pt favorites.
Pats have averaged over 40 points their last 6 games, against the 7[SUP]th[/SUP] toughest schedule during that time.
New England has won 42 of 45 regular season home games (SU)
Pats at home when NOT laying double digits: 14-3 ATS
Pats off Colts game, and have GB next week. All talk about NE/GB super bowl, is NE looking ahead?
Patriots turnover differential: +11 YTD, +8 during streak (since week 5)
Odds makers still struggling to adjust to this team. Consider that NE has outperformed the closing number by margins of 23.5, 25, and 25 in their last 3.
YTD – pats have registered a positive mac of 25+ FOUR times. No other team has more than 2.
DET:
Detroit Rock Solid D
Detroit defense: #1 (290 ypg – only team less than 300)
Detroit rushing defense: #1
Detroit scoring defense: #1
Lions in tight playoff race – every win matters
10 of last 20 Lions games decided by 3 points or less
Oddsmakers have caught on: wk1-wk6, Det +25.5 mac. Wk7-wk11, -11 mac, in that stretch are a -1, -2, and +1. Every point matters with DET!
(Detroit) NFL road dog who lost on road last week: 62% since 2003 (166-100-3 ATS)
Offense struggling: Detroit got inside the Arizona 20-yard line only once.
Detroit scoring: #26
Det scored 20 or less in half their games this season
Det 21 in Off yds/game YTD, AND L5.
Det #1 Def yds/game YTD, #3 L5.
Det # 8 in yard diff YTD, dropped to #14 L5.
Det 8-2 UNDER on season , AVG total = 34.4
Det -11 mac L4, +14.5 ytd.
Conclusion:
DETROIT is a mac play as NE is a fade. The avg mac in the NFL this season is +3.8, a little more than a FG. The odds makers are lost w/ NE, and are going to overcompensate on the spread, which my numbers say they have here (PR calls for NE -6). Det has been the most consistent team in he NFL. DET IS A BET.
Gb -8 49 @ Min (opened GB -10)
REF: Clete Blakeman – Crew holds third lowerst avg penalties per game = 4[SUP]th[/SUP] lowest pts/game amongst refs. Avg T = 44
GB:
GB scoring: #1 (33 ppg)
Packers covered 10 of 12 laying a TD or more
GB turnover differential: #1 (+14)
Green Bay has been outgained by opponents this season – more due to their quick strikes than anything.
Green Bay hosts New England next Sunday
Green Bay defense much improved
(GB yard diff YTD = 18[SUP]th[/SUP] in league, BUT #7 last 5). One factor is recent schematic change (moving Clay Mathews to an unusual hybrid ILB).
GB plays a base nickel.
Packers in division: 37-15 ATS (including 15 of last 20 ATS)
GB +4 turnovers vs. Philly
GB had 3 defensive/special teams TDs (Philly had given up only 1 the entire season). Philly has scored 9 such TDs on the season
Only road game for Packers in 5 weeks
Schedule Diff L5 week middle of pack at 16[SUP]th[/SUP].
GB passing offense (ypa): #1
GB mac L4 = +66.5, now lead NFL at +88. Last 2 week total of +71, highest two week total this season. Wk 10 +42 mac, highest in the league. Since week 4, mac = +111
MIN:
Vikings in last 5 weeks have yielded 18 sacks (3.6/week). Combination of rookie QB and Oline.
Minny outgained by 225 yards vs. Bears, nothing new Minn #22 in Yard diff on season, and #25 L5.
Minny gained only 10 first downs against Bears, avg 18/game on season.
Vikings rushed for 48 yards on a fake punt to setup their 1st quarter touchdown (vs. Chicago)
(Minny) NFL Home underdogs getting MORE than 8-points are 26-9 ATS
Bridgewater last week: 18/28 for 158 yards (1/1)
Minnesota only 7 TD passes on season (least in NFL)
Minny 4 wins, none against an opponent with winning record.
Minny mac L4 = +3.5 (-1.5 on season), BUT +12.5 in games that Bridgewater has started. Minny +2.4 NET PR vs YTD last 5 games.
CONCLUSION:
MINNY is a MAC play (Fade of GB). Minny lost 42-10 to GB on 10/2/14. Minny closed as 9 pt dogs at GB. Now they open as 10 pt dogs at HOME? This is an over-reaction to GB recent performance by 3 PTS on the betting line per my numbers. Game opened GB -10, now GB -8 despite 82% of the tickets written on the side being for GB. This number holds even more value considering that this game is #3 in terms of volume this week, attracting more action than public game Den/Mia, and the Sunday night game. MINNESOTA is a bet down to +7. I do not think the public will let it get that low. The
UNDER should be considered given the ref stats, two improving defenses, and GB offense playing at an unsustainable level similar to what we saw in wks 9 and 10 from Pittsburgh.
Jacksonville @ Indy -13.5 49.5
REF: ED HOCHULI - Home teams are 7-1 straight up, Avg T = 47.
INDY:
Off a loss: Colts 15-1 ATS next game
Against losing teams, 15-3 against the spread
Colts dominate in division: 10 STRAIGHT covers against the spread
Colts have outscored Jags by 81 points combined their last three matchups
Andrew Luck: 27-15 ATS during regular season in his career
Andrew Luck has at least 300 passing yards in each of his last eight games, one shy of the longest streak in NFL history.
Last week: Andrew Luck led the Colts in rushing with 15 yards.
19 total yards for team. Trent Richardson: 7 carries for 0 yards. Expect Boom Herron to get the call.
Colts outgained by 179 yards vs. Pats (
501 to 322)
Colts #1 Off yd/game (437.3) YTD, and
#2 in Yard/game diff, BUT #13 over L5. Why? Defense. L5 #31 defensive yards/game.
Colts 8-2 OVER this year.
Colts 2-3 SU vs winning teams.
Colts rushing defense (ypa): #30
Colts -9.4 mac L4. +40 mac wks 1 thru 6. Coming off worse mac performance of season (-25). Colts NET PR -1.4 L4 vs YTD – no longer in top 10 of my rankings.
JAX:
Jags off bye
Jacksonville (and Jets) only two teams with less than 3 ATS wins on the season
Jags: Third straight year with a record of 1-9 SU after 10 games
Jags D has givin up 8 offense TDs in last two games. In prior four games, Jax had given up only 3 TDs.
Jax has thrown 15 INTs this season (most in NFL)
Jax has given up 39 sacks (most in NFL)
Jax had shown improvement in weeks 5,6, and 7 (mac +26.5). Weeks 8-11 – mac -13.5. Weeks 5-7 NET PR vs YTD improved each week. Wks 8-11, NET PR has decreased, or remained the same.
Conclusion:
Probably a bit of value w/ Jax +14. Definitely more attractive games on board.
Ciny @ Hou -1.5 43.5
REF: Terry McAulay – Avg home score: 22.3 Avg away score: 22.7. Worked Texans/Giants week 3. 9 penalties total called. Houston 5 for 40 yards.
CIN:
Cincy has been outgained by 394 yards this season (#25 in league)
Bengals replacement RB Jeremy Hill has proven to be a solid back: 355 yards rushing in 3 games.
AJ Green healthy now? 127 yards receiving last week (only 67 yards in prior two games)
Status of V. Burfict?
Cincy defense 25[SUP]th[/SUP] in yardage diff on year, drops to 29[SUP]th[/SUP] over L5 – yet Cincy has yielded only 11 TD passes (best in NFL).
Cincy offense 17[SUP]th[/SUP] in yards/game on season, BUT drops to 27[SUP]th[/SUP] over last 5.
Cincy playing game 2 of 3 straight road games.
Last week +25.5 mac best mark of season. -33 mac in 4 games prior.
Cincy +16.5 mac L4. Started season +36.5 mac wks 1-3. After bye post a -56.5 mac next 4. Cincy and Cleveland, only teams w/ winning records and not in top half of league in PR. Cincy PR L5 has them at 19[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league.
HOU:
O’Brian coached Mallet at New England
First game with Mallet, 84 total plays by Houston is extremely fast offensive pace (prior games averaged less than 62 plays)
Mallett: 20/30 for 211 yards (2/1)
Reports of contagious energy and confidence from Mallett
RB Foster OUT last week. Check status this week … (worth up to 1 point)
The Texans have forced an NFL-best 21 turnovers this season. Last season, they forced an NFL-worst 11 turnovers (only team in NFL already with more forced turnovers this season compared to last)
Hou mac of +20 L4. Largest mac of season, prior high was 13. Houston rated as avg NFL team, BUT showing signs of taking the next step.
Conclusion:
Cincy has been schizo all season. They surprised last time out at NO, Sunday they face a team that is better on defense than offense. Line is about right. Lean Houston at anything under 3.
Tb @ Chi -5.5 46
REF: Walt Coleman – crew calls fewest penalties in the NFL. Avg t = 42 (lowest in league).
CHI:
Bears Struggle
Chicago in last five games: outscored 104-21 in First Half
Bears at home: covered only 2 of last 14 home games
Bears in games that over/under total greater than 44: 17-45 ATS
15 times Bears have played a second straight home game: covered spread only ONCE
Associated Press on Chicago’s home crowd last week: “There were 6,472 no-shows and the 55,320 fans on hand were letting their team hear it” (when behind early).
Bears yielded 243 yards vs. Minny (fewest in over two calendar years)
Bears outgained Minny by 225 yards
Bears won time of possession battle by 17 minutes on Sunday
Bears scoring defense: #32
Chi -76 mac L4. Won ATS as a mac play last week. Posted +5.5 mac in win over Minny. First positive mac since week 6. Chi weeks 1-6, +8 mac. Weeks 7-11 -76. NET PR now has Chicago in bottom half of league, and over L5, they are in the bottom qtr.
TB:
Coach Lovie Smith and Coach McCown back in Chicago – coach Smith knows Chi personnel well.
6 of last 7 games Tampa Bay has lead in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter
Tampa D improving: TB #27 in Def yards/game on season, BUT #20 since bye.
Tampa gained only 12 first downs against Washington
Tampa Bay has 5 losses by six points or less this season
Tampa road games this season: 4-1 ATS
Tampa outgained Washington,
THIRD straight game TB has outgained opponents
(they had been outgained their 10 prior games)
McCown starts: 1-4 ATS
Mike Glennon starts: 3-2 ATS
TB rookie Mike Evans had 209 yards receiving on 7 catches (2 TDs)
(first rookie to post three consecutive 100-yard games with at least one touchdown in each since Moss in 1998)
TB rushed for only 48 yards in last week’s victory
Tampa has physically bigger corners, which matchup well vs. Chicago’s receivers
Tampa +16.5 mac L4. Last out posted highest mac of year at +26.5. Tb NET PR L4 +2.8 vs YTD.
Conclusion: I made this game Chi -4. Tampa is better on the road, and team is likely to rally around Lovie and McCown this week in their return to Chi. One win by Chicago does not convince me that this team isn’t internally dysfunctional. STRONG LEAN TAMPA +5.5 and ML.
Arizona @ Sea -7.5 41 (open Sea -6.5)
REF: GENE STERATORE - Tendency for calling few penalties. Even as he has been in 5 games with at least 55 points, the other 4 have not gone above 41, so we should see some regression as the season closes. Avg T – 49.
Called 49ers @ Cards, week 3 (Stanton QB). 14 penalties in game, Az 5 for 36, SF 9 for 107. ARIZONA 7 FIRST DOWNS DUE TO SF PENALTIES.
AZ:
Arizona biggest underdog on record for team with 9-1 record (25 seasons of data)
Only two other 9-1 teams underdogs by more than a field goal (both 4 point dogs) Last 19 games
Arizona is 16-3 SU (losing only one game by more than 3 points). Losing only 3 times against the spread
Arizona has not allowed a 100 yard rusher for 20 straight games
Arizona’s QB Stanton vs. Detroit: 21/32 for 306 yards (2/2)
Arizona has 10 sacks their last two games (after getting only 8 in its first eight games of season)
Detroit got inside the Arizona 20-yard line only once last week
Arizona rushing offense: #31
Arizona rushing offense (ypa): #32
Arizona passing defense: #29
Arizona rushing defense: #3
Arizona has been outgained by opponents this season (-107 yards)
Arizona turnover differential: +11 (tied for second)
Arizona #20 in yardage diff for season
, BUT #6 last 5 (+14 increase best in NFL over time frame).
Arizona #13 in def yards/game for season,
BUT #3 last 5 (L5: Oak, Phila, Dal, Stl, Det).
Arizona injury concerns: Larry Fitz – GTD, Rashad Johnson (S), Johnson an underrated safety.
Az +29 mac L4. Have covered 6 straight w/ avg mac of +7, so they are outperforming the odds makers by a touchdown over this span.
SEA:
Seattle at home
Seattle (starting in 2005): 68% ATS at home (55-26-2), 3-2 ATS this season. AMOV 9.2
Since October, only 1-2 ATS .
During Russell Wilson era at home: 16-7 Against The Spread [21-2 SU …
Arizona was the opponent for one of those defeats]
Seattle rushing offense: #1 (174 yards per game)
Seattle rushing offense (ypr): #1
Last 3 games, Russell Wilson has not thrown for even 180 yards in any of them
R. Wilson: 20/31 for 178 yards (2/0) vs. KC
Prior 2 weeks:
10/17 for 172 yards (0 TDS, 2 INTs)
Prior week: 17/35 for 179 yards (0 TD and 0 INT)
Seattle outgained KC by 74 yards last week
Seattle’s RB Lynch left stadium without speaking to reporters. Source of contention all season.
Seattle C Max Unger was carted off with a high ankle sprain and twisted knee midway through the fourth quarter. Unger #2 rated center in NFL per PFF (+12.4 rating). BU Schilling has -2.2 rating per PFF
Seattle’s defense is nowhere near last seasons unit. In 2014, only 3 teams have a lower sack percentage per opponent drop back. KC rushed for 6.3 yards per carry last week. Defensive line has been decimated by injury.
Seattle passing offense: #30
Seattle plays at SF on Thanksgiving
Sea -1 mac L4. 1-5 ATS L6, with a mac of -25 over that span.
Conclusion: Seattle is not close to the team they were last year. Injuries were a concern BEFORE Unger went down. The one thing Seattle has going for them is that they are the more desperate team. Still, they lack the playmakers on offense to pull away from top level teams. +7.5 is too much to pass up. I made the game 6, therefore, ARIZONA +7.5 is a play, as is UNDER 42.
Stl @ SD -6 43.5
REF: Carl Cheffers - He is now working on 4 straight years in which his crew is well above average in calling penalties, which has led to a large number of high-scoring contests. AVG T = 54.5. Road teams are 7-2 ATS.
SD is a MAC play -42 L4 and -52 L5. Have failed to cover in last 5.
SD:
Rivers beat-up:
From Associated Press: “Philip Rivers gingerly eased himself onto the stool at his locker, clearly sore after injuring his leg and then having the wind knocked out of him.”
Raiders gained only 233 yards of offense vs. SD
Raiders crossed the 50-yard line only twice vs. SD
18 total punts in SD’s game vs. Oakland
SD did not score a touchdown in final 59 minutes against Oakland
Chargers C Rich Orhnberger (ankle) and NT Ryan Carrethers (elbow) left and didn't return.
San Diego rushing (ypa): #31
STL:
Rams becoming more comfortable with Gregg Williams defensive scheme:
First five games of season, Rams had 1 sack. Next 5 games: 18 sacks.
Rams last 5 games: gaining only
250 yards per game
New QB Shaun Hill an upgrade for Rams.
Rams schedule since bye:
at Philly
vs. SF
vs. Seahawks
at KC
at SF
at Cardinals
vs. Broncos
59 Rams games since 2011
(Rams) NFL teams off win as home dog: 42% since 1994 (232-315-17 ATS)
Denver outgained Rams by 60 yards last week
Time of Possession: Rams 36 minutes; Broncos 24 minutes
Conclusion: Too many conflicting points for me to make a bet. Pass.
Miami @ Den -6.5 47.5
REF: Jeff Triplette – Crew has a tendency to call a lot of penalties, though his early returns in 2014 have been the opposite. Even as we can see a ton of low-scoring games and road underdogs covering, expect some regression towards his career mean, which could spell more penalties leading to slower, higher-scoring contests. Avg T – 44. 6-2 UNDER. 5-3 Away ATS. Worked Chiefs @ Mia week 3. 10 penalties called all game. Mia had 6 for 65 yards.
DEN: MAC PLAY
Denver has been darling to bettors
40[SUP]th[/SUP] game out time of last 41 that Denver has been favored
Denver with Manning as a favorite 27-14 ATS
But extra thin as skill positions this week. No Sanders, Likely No Thomas and RB’s banged up
Peyton Manning off loss as favorite: 17-21 ATS (in his entire career)
Vs Rams, Manning was off-target (over or underthrown passes) on 10-of-54 attempts (19 percent), tied for his 3rd most in a game since joining the Broncos.
Denver rushed only 9 times for 29 yards vs. Rams
Denver outgained Rams by 60 yards
Time of Possession: Rams 36 minutes; Broncos 24 minutes
Denver defense: #5
Denver rushing defense (ypa): #2
Denver has given up only 11 sacks (least in NFL)
Denver has the best yardage differential in league (+965)
MIA:
Miami biggest gainer in my PR since week 5. Now sit squarely in top 10.
MIA MAC fade w/ +43.5 L4.
If not for last minute losses against Green Bay and Detroit
Miami would have won 7 STRAIGHT games
EVERY ONE of Miami’s wins this seasonhave been by 13 points or more
Mia has the 2nd best defense in the league - Giving up the LEAST yards per pass attempt
Only 2 Miami games this season with a final score margin of less than 13 points
(all 6 wins by 13 points or more)
Miami: LT Branden Albert OT (on IR; this will be second game without)
Miami trailed 9-3 before outscoring Buffalo 19-0 over the final 18 minutes.
Miami -2 turnovers vs. Bills
Miami passing defense: #2
Miami passing defense (ypa): #1
Miami off Thursday home game
Mia mac since week 5 bye = +58. Biggest gainers in PR since week 5. Now a top 10 team.
CONCLUSION: Denver a MAC play, will use in a teaser. Denver’s prolific offense has the total at 47.5. I made it 44.5 as RIGHT NOW, the defenses for both teams are the true strengths. UNDER 47.5 is a bet
