NFL Week 12 **YTD 53-28-1**

Nugzz

Nugzz

Tritty f'n Bunk
Another nice week last week going 7-3 to move my record to...
YTD 53-28-1
POW's 6-2

Now on to some week 12 leans/plays... At first glance i really like this card

Early Leans:
GB -3 1/2
Dal -14
STL +3
Pats -22 (ugh i know)
Hous/Cleve over 51
Miami/Pitt over 41 (possible POW)
ATL +11 1/2 (Don't think i can pull the trigger on this one but i'm tempted. Gonna have to wait and see what Petrino does at QB)


Thoughts welcome GL fellas
 
Hey Nugz! Can you tell me why you like St Louis? They've beaten NO and SF, and I am aware that they are playing 'better' than they were earlier during the year...but the defense is still horrendous.

Also leaning to GB and DAL. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on those.

GL this week!

:cheers:
 
Sup Az... I'm not sold on Sea especially on the road and just have a feeling STL at home will be able to take advantage of a Sea team goin away from home after a couple wins when they may be a little overconfident.

As for GB and Dal... GB is just a superior team and i think the short week benefits them more especially with Favre at the helm. And I like Dallas for a lot of reasons one being its Turkey day and the other being the Jets suck and may be getting some undeserved credit for beating an overrated Pitt team.

I know my reasonings may not be truly based on "on-field" stats and trends but i have a feel for these games and I've been going with the feel and been hitting pretty good.
 
OK gonna lock in a couple

Plays
Miami/Pitt Over 40 (POW)
NE/Philly Over 50.5
STL +3

Thats it for now... there will definitely be some more
 
GL, i have a question about the pitt/miami play. Do you think it'll make a difference in the total amount of opints scored given the current field conditions and the weather that is expected at game time (i know it's still kind of early).

I say that because, there were 4 local pittsburgh conference playoff games played there on friday, a pitt panther game on saturday, and now a steeler game there on monday. Also they are saying the weather is expecting to rain. I was watching the pitt game and between the hashmarks there seems to be no grass only mud or dirt. I still like the over as well i was just wondering if those factors made you a little nervous abotu teh play.

One more question, What do you think about teh texans geting 3.5 at cleveland tommorow? I think it is a solid play but i have reservatinos about the game since cleveland seems to play so well at home and it seems that cleveland may be one of those teams this year that gets all the bounces.

GL on your card

Thanks in advance.
 
Frankie- I took weather possibilities into account for the Pitt/Miami, I'm gonna keep my eye on updates about weather and field conditions but its definitely going to be a play. I may just adjust the size of the play.

As for Cleve/Hous..
I think the number looks a little fishy. With how good Cleve plays at home it would be tough for me to take Houston... Still undecided if I want to make a play on the side/total for this one

GL on ur plays
 
OK folks here's my card for the week...
GB -3.5 (W)
Dallas -14 (W)
Indy/ATL Over 40.5 (W)
Stl +3
NE -22
NE/Philly Over 50.5
SD -8.5
Denver +2
Miami/Pitt Over 40 (POW)
 
Last edited:
Here comes my greediness...
Adding a couple 1H plays

GMEN/VIKES OVER 20 1st Half
Oak/KC OVER 17 1st Half
 
I definitely still like the Over in the Pitt/Miami game, as it is still my POW... May even double my bet b/c I can't choose a side. Gotta check some weather factors, might even be able to get a better number
 
5-3 on the week... At least I'm guaranteed another winning week unless I add something tonight other than the over
 
Just checked with local.. Line is 38 now.. If i can get 37 I will double the bet but may do it anyway
 
Nugzz said:
I definitely still like the Over in the Pitt/Miami game, as it is still my POW... May even double my bet b/c I can't choose a side. Gotta check some weather factors, might even be able to get a better number
Click to expand...

ESPN reporting field is a mess.. JUst fyi
 
Nugzz said:
I definitely still like the Over in the Pitt/Miami game, as it is still my POW... May even double my bet b/c I can't choose a side. Gotta check some weather factors, might even be able to get a better number
Click to expand...

Thanks man. I like it too and the line keeps coming down. I may wait a little while to see if I can get a better number. Right now it's 38.5. Too many people see the weather as a big part of their decision but I don't put too much into it. A turnover here and there can lead to points i.e. Pitt vs. Balt a few weeks back. GL with the play.
 
Hopefully they get this one started soon... I just went with the normal size play of Pitt over 38... Almost doubled it up
 
Ok gonna try the reverse jinx on this one... THis fuckin game is over they would be lucky to score one td
 
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