Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
The rest of that line may not exactly be entirely accurate here, as I'm not going over the top on any of these, but hopefully by the end of tomorrow it will be a reflection of how I did, fates willing.
Here we go.
Browns -2.5/ML
I split this because I was able to get a decent ML price at MB. Here's the story, the only reason this worries me is because I can see a let-down spot here for the Browns. I know that sounds crazy, being a divisional game and it being the scourge of the earth, Baltimore, but last week had to drain this team and Baltimore is, frankly, just not very good.
I'm going to take the Browns here, though, for the simple reason that they are the better team. If you saw any of the game the first two times these teams met you'll know, the Browns moved the ball very well on Baltimore, all day. In fact, Cincy moved the ball pretty well last week against Baltimore, they just couldn't punch it in. Well, punching it in is pretty much what the Browns do these days. Baltimore is without one of their stud CBs, Boller never really plays all that well against Cleveland, and though they're not a road favorite often, over the past few years, when Cleveland has been favored on the road, they've covered.
Houston -1
Part of this is the AFC/NFC thing, but the rest of it is that NO just isn't very good. With Johnson back, Houston should be able to stretch the field, and Mario Williams gets to do his best to make some sort of statement on his home turf against Reggie Bush. I also feel a lot of points get scored here, but 48 is too rich for my blood. I'll just stick with Houston.
TB -3 (-125)
Horrible price, but it's a big hook. My hope is that it won't matter. Better team, and just about as good a spot as you're going to get for being on the road. I'll take it.
TB/Atlanta over 35.5
Honestly, right now, this is my favorite play of the day. I know what they say about looking too easy, and Atlanta's bad enough, and TB not motivated enough offensively not to make this number happen, but I think there are a lot of points in that dome tomorrow. I really would have bet this if the number was 40.
SD +3/ML
I just don't believe in the Jags. And, yes, they've been making me pay for that. But I think SD wins this game. I think they go down to J-Ville, in the morning which for some reason they've been able to do over the past few years, and I think they win. I also think this is a low scoring game, but I desperately hate to play unders. I may bite, though, I just may.
Seattle -5.5/6
The worst number in all of football to lay, but I'm going to do it. Two weeks ago I said Seattle was a team that kicks FGs and the Browns were a team that scores TDs as one of my reasons to take the Browns. Well, Seattle still may be a team that kicks FGs but the Bears are a team that just doesn't score.
Seattle is opening up the offense now because Holmgren is sick of his offense sucking and and if I'm not mistaken, Seattle can do a little revenging here for a primetime *ss-raping this Bears team gave them last year in Seattle.
I also may lay the number with Dallas and the Rams late in the day. The only reason I'm not laying the number with NE is because it's a night game.
I'm also leaning on the Eagles' over.
***adding Philly/Miami over 40***
Yeah they say the weather's not all that great, but I think that will help the offense. At least I hope so. Go Birds.
Good luck tomorrow everybody.
Here we go.
Browns -2.5/ML
I split this because I was able to get a decent ML price at MB. Here's the story, the only reason this worries me is because I can see a let-down spot here for the Browns. I know that sounds crazy, being a divisional game and it being the scourge of the earth, Baltimore, but last week had to drain this team and Baltimore is, frankly, just not very good.
I'm going to take the Browns here, though, for the simple reason that they are the better team. If you saw any of the game the first two times these teams met you'll know, the Browns moved the ball very well on Baltimore, all day. In fact, Cincy moved the ball pretty well last week against Baltimore, they just couldn't punch it in. Well, punching it in is pretty much what the Browns do these days. Baltimore is without one of their stud CBs, Boller never really plays all that well against Cleveland, and though they're not a road favorite often, over the past few years, when Cleveland has been favored on the road, they've covered.
Houston -1
Part of this is the AFC/NFC thing, but the rest of it is that NO just isn't very good. With Johnson back, Houston should be able to stretch the field, and Mario Williams gets to do his best to make some sort of statement on his home turf against Reggie Bush. I also feel a lot of points get scored here, but 48 is too rich for my blood. I'll just stick with Houston.
TB -3 (-125)
Horrible price, but it's a big hook. My hope is that it won't matter. Better team, and just about as good a spot as you're going to get for being on the road. I'll take it.
TB/Atlanta over 35.5
Honestly, right now, this is my favorite play of the day. I know what they say about looking too easy, and Atlanta's bad enough, and TB not motivated enough offensively not to make this number happen, but I think there are a lot of points in that dome tomorrow. I really would have bet this if the number was 40.
SD +3/ML
I just don't believe in the Jags. And, yes, they've been making me pay for that. But I think SD wins this game. I think they go down to J-Ville, in the morning which for some reason they've been able to do over the past few years, and I think they win. I also think this is a low scoring game, but I desperately hate to play unders. I may bite, though, I just may.
Seattle -5.5/6
The worst number in all of football to lay, but I'm going to do it. Two weeks ago I said Seattle was a team that kicks FGs and the Browns were a team that scores TDs as one of my reasons to take the Browns. Well, Seattle still may be a team that kicks FGs but the Bears are a team that just doesn't score.
Seattle is opening up the offense now because Holmgren is sick of his offense sucking and and if I'm not mistaken, Seattle can do a little revenging here for a primetime *ss-raping this Bears team gave them last year in Seattle.
I also may lay the number with Dallas and the Rams late in the day. The only reason I'm not laying the number with NE is because it's a night game.
I'm also leaning on the Eagles' over.
***adding Philly/Miami over 40***
Yeah they say the weather's not all that great, but I think that will help the offense. At least I hope so. Go Birds.
Good luck tomorrow everybody.
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