NFL Week 10

[smh212]

YTD: 21-13-1 +10.25 units

1-3 last week, first losing week in sometime. I posted 49ers -2.5, which was a mistake - should have read AZ -2.5.

MAC update coming later in the weekend. Played two games thus far.

BILLS +130 (1.25)
My line: PK

Bad number here being dealt by books. I made this one a PK, and shaded towards Buffalo. Buffalo is 4-0 at home this year, and 7-3 SU over their L10. Saints come in read hot and a bettors best friend. Sunday I believe they they come back to earth.

WASHINGTON +105 (1.25)
My Line: Wash -2

This handicap is pretty simple: Would I rather back Kurt Cousins or Case Keenum in the 4th qtr? Yeah, I'll take Cousins.

Good Luck.

 

[Hulu]

I just added the Bills myself. BOL this week sir.

 

[smh212]

Thanks Hulu!

MAC CHART UPDATE WEEK 10

Mac Fades
Week 6: KC (+41) Play on PITTSBURGH +4 – W (SU)
Week 7: NO(+61.5) Play on GREEN BAY +4 – L
Week 8: NO (+66.5) Play on CHICAGO +10 - W
Week 8: HOU (+50.5) Play on SEAHAWKS – 6 –L
Week 9: PHI (+44.5) Play on DENVER +7 -L
Week 9: NO (+40.5) Play on TB +7 – L

Week 10: LAR (+66) Play on Hou +13
Week 10: JAX (+50.5) Play on LAC +5

MAC Play On
Week 6: (-50) ARIZONA +2.5 – W (SU)
Week 7: (-43) OAKLAND +3 – W (SU)
Week 7: (-42) CLEVELAND +5.5 - W
Week 8: (-46) DENVER +7 - L
Week 8: (-44) ATLANTA -6 - L
Week 8: (-45) INDY +10 - W
Week 9: (-47) ARIZONA -2.5 – W
Week 9: (-49) DENVER +7 – L (Play on / Fade)

Week 10: (-72.5) DENVER +7.5

MAC POWER RATINGS YTD:
1.L.A. Rams 98.5
2. Jacksonville Jaguars 91.5
3. Philadelphia Eagles 76.5
4. New Orleans Saints 62.5
5. New York Jets 35
6. Houston Texans 33
7. Minnesota Vikings 32.5
8. Buffalo Bills 30
9. Detroit Lions 25.5
10. Kansas City Chiefs 22.5
11. Dallas Cowboys 20
12. Baltimore Ravens 18
13. L.A. Chargers 12
14. Chicago Bears 6
15. Washington Redskins 1.5
16. Seattle Seahawks 0
--------------------------------------
17. Carolina Panthers -0.5
18. Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
19. New England Patriots -16.5
20. Green Bay Packers -20
21. Oakland Raiders -32.5
22. Tennessee Titans -33.5
23. Arizona Cardinals -35
24. San Francisco 49ers -35.5
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -36
26. Cincinnati Bengals -36
27. Atlanta Falcons -40.5
28. Cleveland Browns -42
29. Miami Dolphins -45
30. New York Giants -48.5
31. Indianapolis Colts -50
32. Denver Broncos -58.5


MAC POWER RATINGS LAST 4:
1. L.A. Rams 70
2. Philadelphia Eagles 45
3. Dallas Cowboys 43
4. New Orleans Saints 38
5. Minnesota Vikings 29
6. Baltimore Ravens 26
7. L.A. Chargers 25
8. Chicago Bears 25
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 23
10. Pittsburgh Steelers 21
11. New York Jets 19
12. New England Patriots 13
13. Tennessee Titans 4.5
14. Buffalo Bills 1.5
15. Houston Texans 0
16. Seattle Seahawks -1
---------------------------------------------------------
17. Carolina Panthers -7
18. Detroit Lions -10
19. Indianapolis Colts -10
20. Washington Redskins -15
21. Arizona Cardinals -15
22. New York Giants -15
23. Cleveland Browns -16
24. Oakland Raiders -18
25. Kansas City Chiefs -19
26. Miami Dolphins -20
27. Cincinnati Bengals -30
28. Green Bay Packers -33
29. San Francisco 49ers -33
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -33
31. Atlanta Falcons -37
32. Denver Broncos -72.5

 

[smh212]

MAC YTD vs. LAST 4 Breakdown:

The purpose is to identify teams who, over their last 4 games their MAC is either rising or falling, relative to their YTD MAC.
MAC plays require a +/- 40 over a teams last 4 to qualify as a MAC play. However, not all MAC plays are bet, and not all MAC plays are created equal. The back-testing of the data helps identify the red herrings, but a deeper dive is required when analyzing week by week during an NFL season.

What the simple data extraction tells me is which teams are TRENDING towards being a PLAY AGAINST team, and which are TRENDING towards being a PLAY ON team. It's similar to counting cards in blackjack. When your counting cards, and all the low cards are coming out, your not as pissed with 9,6 you get dealt. Your not as pissed when the dealer is pulling a 4 when showing a 16; because you know the count is growing, and soon enough the real money will be wagered.

Staying with the Blackjack theme, DENVER would be a MAX bet. Denver is the first team to ever post three MAC scores of -21 or greater within a four week period. Put another way, Denver has under-performed relative to the closing number by THREE TOUCHDOWNS or more in three of their last four games. Denver's MAC in weeks 1-4 was a +14. YTD it's at -58.5, but over the last 4 it's a -72.5. There have been teams with a higher negative MAC over a 4 game span, but that was typically caused by an outlying number of 35 or greater in one of the given weeks.

Denver's CONSISTENT under performance is what is going to cause disruption within the marketplace. When you look at Denver's last 4, we wouldn't be here had KC had not picked up a fumble and scored with no time left. If that doesn't happen, there is no play against Denver last week (you can't play on a negative MAC team that covered last week). This week we have Denver in a TV isolation game against the Super Bowl champ.....something has to give.

In general - teams that have a large drop in their MAC over their L4 vs YTD typically present value.

 

[Metallica]

BOL today SMH.

 

[smh212]

Thanks Metallica.

CHARGERS +6 (1.25)
TEXANS +13 (1.25)

 

[eggman]

With you on Texas. Good luck!!

 

[smh212]

DENVER +7 (1.25)