Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Hopefully I mean that in a good way.
Some of these may change a little bit before the morning, but here's what I've bet already.
Cleveland +10/ML
Realize, I've only be the ML very, very small, but that value is too much to ignore.
The worry here is obviously that Derek Anderson will implode, but that's been the worry for weeks now and he's been all right. That said, both times Cleveland has played a good team they've lost by 17 or more. But I do think this one will be close. The Browns haven't beaten the Steelers since 2004 (thanks, Throwback) and frankly, they've been beaten badly by this team three out of the last four times. So this is the test, it's a big one, and I don't expect them to win--although, I'm pretty sure Derek Anderson has exacted revenge on every team that beat him badly last year except Pittsburgh--but 10 is too much.
I'm also not sold on all the points people seem to expect here. Maybe the 2nd half over might be a play, but right now when I think about this game I think these teams beat each other senseless to a 23-20, 24-20, 24-17 type game.
***cancel this one***Detroit ML
I've got to say, part of me hates this bet. When I saw the schedule for this week, I loved Arizona. So if I lose, well, I blame only myself. So why did I switch? The biggest reason is Kurt Warner. One, I like betting against him, with Arizona it usually works out well. But more than that, it's Mike Martz against Kurt Warner. So even though the Lions D against the pass is nothing nice, I do expect some turnovers. That's what I'm expecting to make the difference.
I've bet out of the Lions right now, if I have a huge morning, maybe I get back on them a bit, but right now I can't ignore that part of me that hates this bet.
Detroit/Arizona over 45
This is sort of my hedge against Detroit losing, but I like this bet on its own as well. The way you beat Detroit is throwing the football. The way Detroit beats you is by throwing the football. Arizona gets Carlos Dansby back at LB this week so that should help their run D which, again, just means more passing.
Philly ML
Yeah, I'm a sucker, but I think this team gets to 8-8 this year, and this game is one they use to get there. They were embarrassed at home by Washington on MNF, and everybody has given up on them. That's usually when they put it together.
NYG ML
I hate this spot for Dallas. Off a night game in Philly, NYG off a bye, NYG with revenge. If the weather's good, I like the chances at the over as well, but won't play it because this number's four points over where it should be. I think NY can throw on this team and I think they do. Giants win the game, Dallas wins the division.
KC -3 +105
LJ's out, but I don't care. Word is some of the guys in the locker room like Priest more than LJ anyway. The Broncos, meanwhile, just keep losing players. They're dramatically thin, they generally don't play well in KC anyway and KC is coming off a loss at home.
***adding Oakland +3.5/ML****
This is a bit of a tail, but it's mostly just a really good number and value. McCown is better than Culpepper it's just a fact, one I'm not sure I ever thought I'd say, but he is. And what he means to Oakland is points, meanwhile the Bears don't score--and they had to fly across the country for this nonsense. Home dog, hopefully they win as this is about a 60/40 split.
***adding Cleveland/Pittsburgh over 46.5***
The Browns limping on defense, LB Antwan Peek is questionable, LB D'Quell Jackson is still hobbled with the ankle that kept him out last week. The Browns are also down one lineman (Seth McKinney) and Steinbach isn't 100%. The Browns are going to have to score today to stay in this one, and I do think they get their numbers, unfortunately, I think the Steelers should be able to score with them. So hopefully it's a fun one.
I have Carolina in a teaser and am now worried a bit as Carr is out and Vinny is gimpy, meaning they might have to go with a rookie QB. But it's Atlanta. I also may do a little teasing and could take Indy late, but this is it for now, if I have a huge change of heart I'll edit and bump this in the AM.
Good luck tomorrow, everybody.
Some of these may change a little bit before the morning, but here's what I've bet already.
Cleveland +10/ML
Realize, I've only be the ML very, very small, but that value is too much to ignore.
The worry here is obviously that Derek Anderson will implode, but that's been the worry for weeks now and he's been all right. That said, both times Cleveland has played a good team they've lost by 17 or more. But I do think this one will be close. The Browns haven't beaten the Steelers since 2004 (thanks, Throwback) and frankly, they've been beaten badly by this team three out of the last four times. So this is the test, it's a big one, and I don't expect them to win--although, I'm pretty sure Derek Anderson has exacted revenge on every team that beat him badly last year except Pittsburgh--but 10 is too much.
I'm also not sold on all the points people seem to expect here. Maybe the 2nd half over might be a play, but right now when I think about this game I think these teams beat each other senseless to a 23-20, 24-20, 24-17 type game.
***cancel this one***Detroit ML
I've got to say, part of me hates this bet. When I saw the schedule for this week, I loved Arizona. So if I lose, well, I blame only myself. So why did I switch? The biggest reason is Kurt Warner. One, I like betting against him, with Arizona it usually works out well. But more than that, it's Mike Martz against Kurt Warner. So even though the Lions D against the pass is nothing nice, I do expect some turnovers. That's what I'm expecting to make the difference.
I've bet out of the Lions right now, if I have a huge morning, maybe I get back on them a bit, but right now I can't ignore that part of me that hates this bet.
Detroit/Arizona over 45
This is sort of my hedge against Detroit losing, but I like this bet on its own as well. The way you beat Detroit is throwing the football. The way Detroit beats you is by throwing the football. Arizona gets Carlos Dansby back at LB this week so that should help their run D which, again, just means more passing.
Philly ML
Yeah, I'm a sucker, but I think this team gets to 8-8 this year, and this game is one they use to get there. They were embarrassed at home by Washington on MNF, and everybody has given up on them. That's usually when they put it together.
NYG ML
I hate this spot for Dallas. Off a night game in Philly, NYG off a bye, NYG with revenge. If the weather's good, I like the chances at the over as well, but won't play it because this number's four points over where it should be. I think NY can throw on this team and I think they do. Giants win the game, Dallas wins the division.
KC -3 +105
LJ's out, but I don't care. Word is some of the guys in the locker room like Priest more than LJ anyway. The Broncos, meanwhile, just keep losing players. They're dramatically thin, they generally don't play well in KC anyway and KC is coming off a loss at home.
***adding Oakland +3.5/ML****
This is a bit of a tail, but it's mostly just a really good number and value. McCown is better than Culpepper it's just a fact, one I'm not sure I ever thought I'd say, but he is. And what he means to Oakland is points, meanwhile the Bears don't score--and they had to fly across the country for this nonsense. Home dog, hopefully they win as this is about a 60/40 split.
***adding Cleveland/Pittsburgh over 46.5***
The Browns limping on defense, LB Antwan Peek is questionable, LB D'Quell Jackson is still hobbled with the ankle that kept him out last week. The Browns are also down one lineman (Seth McKinney) and Steinbach isn't 100%. The Browns are going to have to score today to stay in this one, and I do think they get their numbers, unfortunately, I think the Steelers should be able to score with them. So hopefully it's a fun one.
I have Carolina in a teaser and am now worried a bit as Carr is out and Vinny is gimpy, meaning they might have to go with a rookie QB. But it's Atlanta. I also may do a little teasing and could take Indy late, but this is it for now, if I have a huge change of heart I'll edit and bump this in the AM.
Good luck tomorrow, everybody.
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illow:
