smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
Coming off my first losing NFL season in 4 years, I was determined to figure out what went wrong. I pinned it down to two factors:
1. Too much information: I was pulling from too many sites and doing a poor job of ranking the importance of the information.
2. A lack of outs: I lost 3 books from the previous years due to government regulation, and some other reasons not worth getting into. I now have 4 books, two of which I think will allow me to hit numbers before the slow ass local books post.
Week 1:
RAVENS +8.5 (1.25)
My line: Den -7
Reports of Baltimore's demise are greatly exaggerated. Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta are nice players, and will be missed. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed were cornerstones of the team for over a decade, but last year they passed the leadership torch to Flacco and Suggs.
Last year from week 7 on the Broncos were considered the best team in the NFL, and I think some of that thought process factored into this number. However, the offensive line remains unsettled due to injury, especially at the center position. In addition, neither Montee Ball nor Ronnie Hillman have proven that they can pick up blitz's as required by Manning and his offense. Sure Ball has shown flashes in the preseason, but it's the preseason. Let's see what he's got week 1 when he see's fronts and blitz packages that he has never seen before. Then there is the loss of Von Miller. Dude sets the tone for the Broncos defense. He will be missed. I would not be surprised to see Baltimore win SU.
BILLS +7 (1.25)
My line: Ne -5.5
My adjusted line: NE -7
I bet this game in early June, as NE is working with a completely retooled offense. There remains the distinct possibility that the Pats are going to line up in week one with a receiving corp that has never caught a pass from Tom Brady in the regular season. The offensive line has remained consistent, but the hurry up offense that has been a staple is going to be hard to run when your starting wides are Dobson and Tompkins. The ability to no huddle and calls plays at the line allowed NE the advantage of exploiting personnel match ups due to the defense not having the time to sub. That is now gone. Instead, I expect a more traditional offense, with the running game playing a larger role. The defense is still the same sieve it was last season as no game changers were added to the unit.
Since my July bet, I got kicked in the balls with injuries to the Bills QB situation, which is now in such now dire straits that I likely would have passed this bet were it still an option. As it stands, the Bills have the ability to feed Spiller and have Jackson spell him. IF they can effectively manage the game, I still may have a shot. Stephen Gilmore being out 8 weeks adds to the to carnage. This game will likely move to over a TD come game day, and the value I thought I had in July will be gone. CRIS has already moved this to 9.5, Pinny has pulled it, and the Vegas books are sitting at 7.5.
PITTSBURGH -6.5 (1.25)
My line: Pitt -7.5
Another July bet that has seen the team I'm backing take a hit with the loss of Le'Von Bell. However, this one will have 0 effect on the betting line as Dwyer, Redmen, and Stephen-Howling will step in and not miss a beat. The defense should be better overall, as it seems that Steve McClendon has finally solidified the important NT spot for Pitt. Cortez Allen appears to have solidified the #2 CB, and Troy and Clark anchor the safety position that lacks depth, aside from Shamarko Thomas who likes like a player. The usually reliable Steelers pass rush sucked last season, and Woodley, Jones, and Worlids will be asked to step up their games. The incredibly over-rated Ziggy Hood is a prime example of why you shouldn't fall in love w/ a kid that has a great senior bowl. Hood has failed to get any sort of pressure when asked as he produced a whopping 8 QB hurries in over 800 snaps. The O-line "should" be better w/ Adams, DeCastro, and Gilbert looking to justify their draft position. The over-rated Pouncey kid should hold his own. No doubt the Steelers are going to miss Heath Miller at TE as he recovers from injury, but Brown and Sanders "should" be better.
I like Tenny to improve this season, as I think their offensive line will grow into one of the best units in the league as the season progresses. However, Jake Locker remains a mystery, and I don't see him being ready for week 1. It remains to be seen if Kenny Britt can regain his prior form, and who will emerge opposite him. The bottom line here is that I think their will be value in Tenny later in the season. For now grabbing Pitt at under a TD offers tremendous value IMO, and makes them an excellent teaser candidate.
BENGALS +3.5 (1.25)
My line: Chi -2
Another July bet where my speculation was correct, as this thing has moved to "3" at most books. With the additions of Bernard and Eifert, the Bengals have finally added some explosive potential to compliment AJ Green, not to mention the improved play of Sanu across from Green. Stability is not a word normally associated with Cincy, but I think it's appropriate to tag them as such. On the other side of the ball, the Bears have a new coaching staff in play, and an offensive line in flux. The Long kid has proven to be a revelation, but the Bengals boast one of the best and deepest D-lines in football. Remember all those turnovers the Bears forced last season? That ain't happening this season. They may improve as the season progresses, but when talking about week 1, I'll take the more stable team to win SU.
RAMS -5.5 (1.25)
My line: STL -7
The last of my July bets has seen the line move to 4.5 at most spots, and one of my systems is calling for a play on Arizona. However, Arizona, who used their 7th overall pick on OG Jonathan Cooper has lost him for the season with a broken leg, and in a shocking development projected starting RB Rashard Mendenhall is also hurt. The Rams boast one of the best defensive lines in the NFL, especially at home. Considering that they aren't going to have to score more than 17 pts to win this game, I don't think 20-10 is a stretch. That being said, you don't win money fighting the market, but sometimes you need to take a stand. I think my number is correct, and I will let this one ride.
Phi/Wash UNDER 50.5 (1.5)
My line: 45
This will be my largest bet of week 1. This total is way the hell off. The Eagles have installed a completely new offensive scheme under coach Kelly. To think that they are going to be the Oregon ducks is fucking ludicrous. Will the pace be faster? Yes, but what people seem to not get is that in order to move at a fast pace, you need to rely on short passes so that everyone can back to the line quicker. This means less shots down field. If it were Tom Brady running this thing, I would feel different, but Vick isn't the sharpest tool in the shed, and thought he will make plays with his legs, the offense actually moves better with Foles. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles defense will better than last year. They are faster, and boast a deep defensive line. I believe Brandon Graham will have 15 sacks this season, and become the player the Eagles envisioned when they drafted him in the first round. The front 7 should be decent, but Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher are just guys at CB. Brandon Boykins has a chance to make a name for himself as slot CB, but the safety position isn't much better right now, but mark my words: Earl Wolffe will start and will make an impact. The 5th round pick from NC State is a ball player. While he develops Pat Chung and Nate Allen will have to suffice. Lastly, the offensive line, which was an a mess in 2012 will be a strength in 2013. Peter, Mathis, Kelce, Herremens, and Johnson are solid.
The Skins will enter week 1 with their starting QB having not thrown a pass in a game since January. The WR corp still lacks explosion, and if you think Pierre Garcon is a #1 WR, you are fooling yourself. I expect Wash to have success on the ground, and be limited in big their big plays. 24-21 sounds about right.
TB/NY Jets UNDER 41 (1.25)
My line: 37
I don't see the Jets scoring more than 14 pts unless they get a SP touchdown or defensive TD. My numbers say TB gets 14-21. Call it 17-10.
Depending on what the market does as we get closer to week 1, this may be it for me. Will be doing my teaser of the week again this year and my suicide play as well.
Good Luck.
:hello:
1. Too much information: I was pulling from too many sites and doing a poor job of ranking the importance of the information.
2. A lack of outs: I lost 3 books from the previous years due to government regulation, and some other reasons not worth getting into. I now have 4 books, two of which I think will allow me to hit numbers before the slow ass local books post.
Week 1:
RAVENS +8.5 (1.25)
My line: Den -7
Reports of Baltimore's demise are greatly exaggerated. Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta are nice players, and will be missed. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed were cornerstones of the team for over a decade, but last year they passed the leadership torch to Flacco and Suggs.
Last year from week 7 on the Broncos were considered the best team in the NFL, and I think some of that thought process factored into this number. However, the offensive line remains unsettled due to injury, especially at the center position. In addition, neither Montee Ball nor Ronnie Hillman have proven that they can pick up blitz's as required by Manning and his offense. Sure Ball has shown flashes in the preseason, but it's the preseason. Let's see what he's got week 1 when he see's fronts and blitz packages that he has never seen before. Then there is the loss of Von Miller. Dude sets the tone for the Broncos defense. He will be missed. I would not be surprised to see Baltimore win SU.
BILLS +7 (1.25)
My line: Ne -5.5
My adjusted line: NE -7
I bet this game in early June, as NE is working with a completely retooled offense. There remains the distinct possibility that the Pats are going to line up in week one with a receiving corp that has never caught a pass from Tom Brady in the regular season. The offensive line has remained consistent, but the hurry up offense that has been a staple is going to be hard to run when your starting wides are Dobson and Tompkins. The ability to no huddle and calls plays at the line allowed NE the advantage of exploiting personnel match ups due to the defense not having the time to sub. That is now gone. Instead, I expect a more traditional offense, with the running game playing a larger role. The defense is still the same sieve it was last season as no game changers were added to the unit.
Since my July bet, I got kicked in the balls with injuries to the Bills QB situation, which is now in such now dire straits that I likely would have passed this bet were it still an option. As it stands, the Bills have the ability to feed Spiller and have Jackson spell him. IF they can effectively manage the game, I still may have a shot. Stephen Gilmore being out 8 weeks adds to the to carnage. This game will likely move to over a TD come game day, and the value I thought I had in July will be gone. CRIS has already moved this to 9.5, Pinny has pulled it, and the Vegas books are sitting at 7.5.
PITTSBURGH -6.5 (1.25)
My line: Pitt -7.5
Another July bet that has seen the team I'm backing take a hit with the loss of Le'Von Bell. However, this one will have 0 effect on the betting line as Dwyer, Redmen, and Stephen-Howling will step in and not miss a beat. The defense should be better overall, as it seems that Steve McClendon has finally solidified the important NT spot for Pitt. Cortez Allen appears to have solidified the #2 CB, and Troy and Clark anchor the safety position that lacks depth, aside from Shamarko Thomas who likes like a player. The usually reliable Steelers pass rush sucked last season, and Woodley, Jones, and Worlids will be asked to step up their games. The incredibly over-rated Ziggy Hood is a prime example of why you shouldn't fall in love w/ a kid that has a great senior bowl. Hood has failed to get any sort of pressure when asked as he produced a whopping 8 QB hurries in over 800 snaps. The O-line "should" be better w/ Adams, DeCastro, and Gilbert looking to justify their draft position. The over-rated Pouncey kid should hold his own. No doubt the Steelers are going to miss Heath Miller at TE as he recovers from injury, but Brown and Sanders "should" be better.
I like Tenny to improve this season, as I think their offensive line will grow into one of the best units in the league as the season progresses. However, Jake Locker remains a mystery, and I don't see him being ready for week 1. It remains to be seen if Kenny Britt can regain his prior form, and who will emerge opposite him. The bottom line here is that I think their will be value in Tenny later in the season. For now grabbing Pitt at under a TD offers tremendous value IMO, and makes them an excellent teaser candidate.
BENGALS +3.5 (1.25)
My line: Chi -2
Another July bet where my speculation was correct, as this thing has moved to "3" at most books. With the additions of Bernard and Eifert, the Bengals have finally added some explosive potential to compliment AJ Green, not to mention the improved play of Sanu across from Green. Stability is not a word normally associated with Cincy, but I think it's appropriate to tag them as such. On the other side of the ball, the Bears have a new coaching staff in play, and an offensive line in flux. The Long kid has proven to be a revelation, but the Bengals boast one of the best and deepest D-lines in football. Remember all those turnovers the Bears forced last season? That ain't happening this season. They may improve as the season progresses, but when talking about week 1, I'll take the more stable team to win SU.
RAMS -5.5 (1.25)
My line: STL -7
The last of my July bets has seen the line move to 4.5 at most spots, and one of my systems is calling for a play on Arizona. However, Arizona, who used their 7th overall pick on OG Jonathan Cooper has lost him for the season with a broken leg, and in a shocking development projected starting RB Rashard Mendenhall is also hurt. The Rams boast one of the best defensive lines in the NFL, especially at home. Considering that they aren't going to have to score more than 17 pts to win this game, I don't think 20-10 is a stretch. That being said, you don't win money fighting the market, but sometimes you need to take a stand. I think my number is correct, and I will let this one ride.
Phi/Wash UNDER 50.5 (1.5)
My line: 45
This will be my largest bet of week 1. This total is way the hell off. The Eagles have installed a completely new offensive scheme under coach Kelly. To think that they are going to be the Oregon ducks is fucking ludicrous. Will the pace be faster? Yes, but what people seem to not get is that in order to move at a fast pace, you need to rely on short passes so that everyone can back to the line quicker. This means less shots down field. If it were Tom Brady running this thing, I would feel different, but Vick isn't the sharpest tool in the shed, and thought he will make plays with his legs, the offense actually moves better with Foles. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles defense will better than last year. They are faster, and boast a deep defensive line. I believe Brandon Graham will have 15 sacks this season, and become the player the Eagles envisioned when they drafted him in the first round. The front 7 should be decent, but Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher are just guys at CB. Brandon Boykins has a chance to make a name for himself as slot CB, but the safety position isn't much better right now, but mark my words: Earl Wolffe will start and will make an impact. The 5th round pick from NC State is a ball player. While he develops Pat Chung and Nate Allen will have to suffice. Lastly, the offensive line, which was an a mess in 2012 will be a strength in 2013. Peter, Mathis, Kelce, Herremens, and Johnson are solid.
The Skins will enter week 1 with their starting QB having not thrown a pass in a game since January. The WR corp still lacks explosion, and if you think Pierre Garcon is a #1 WR, you are fooling yourself. I expect Wash to have success on the ground, and be limited in big their big plays. 24-21 sounds about right.
TB/NY Jets UNDER 41 (1.25)
My line: 37
I don't see the Jets scoring more than 14 pts unless they get a SP touchdown or defensive TD. My numbers say TB gets 14-21. Call it 17-10.
Depending on what the market does as we get closer to week 1, this may be it for me. Will be doing my teaser of the week again this year and my suicide play as well.
Good Luck.
:hello:
