NFL Week 1

Marlo

Marlo

Check out my DAD BOD
Still have a sour taste in my mouth about the Super Bowl.

Getting this thread: Will post all plays thoughts and discussion in here.

NY Giants -3/Washington Redskins +3

The Play Giants -3---------3.5 units.

New York is obviously off there most impressive feat of any team last year. Washington added a new coach in and a new system. That new system has looked like shit on the preseason, along with there new coach Jim Zorn. Campbell hasnt played great in the preseason, and the new offense is causing havoc on there production NY comes into this game losing there catalyst players on defense when Straha retired, and Usi went out with a knee, but with that said this team still has there stud in Tuck who had more sacks than Strahan last year. They also have a stud O-line with 3 backs that are capable of pounding it down the Skins throat. This team lost Shockey, but look what happened last year after they lost him.

In both games last year the dog won SU on the road. The last 4 meetings b4 that, the favorite has covered the number.

Looking at the first meeting for these two teams the last 5 years The Giants have won and covered all 5 games
  • September 23- 2007 @ Washington NYG were (+5) NYG -24 Washington 17
  • October 10th 2006 NY was -6 and they won 19-6
  • October 30th 2006 @ NY, NY won 36-0 as -1pt fav
  • September 19 2004 @ NY, NY won 20-14 as 3pt Dogs.
  • September 21st 2003 @ Wash, NY won 24-21 as 1.5pt dogs.
I know there is a sick trend for Super bowl champs in week 1 covering ATS at a very high clip.

The Redskins are 2-6-2 in there last 10 season openers ATS.

Lean to the under, as many trends in the past have shown these two teams play good old fashion football.

More to come, Gl Fellas:cheers:
 
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seen this on rotoworld Taylor will be a game-time decision, as he\\\'ll go through pre-game warmups before a final determination is made. Demetric Evans is his backup at LE. The Skins\\\' game plan going in will be run heavy. They face the Giants on Thursday and New Orleans in Week 2.
 
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Minnesota/Green Bay
Minnesota +120 2u

ne of the biggest rivalries in football! Last year GB spanked the Vikes at GB 34-0, and 23-16 at the dome. The Vikings got bitch slapped in both games, AP went down with a knee, and Favre threw his record TD pass.

Different story this year though, Favres gone, and Minny has only improved.

Both teams have ? at qb and I would say Minny has the biggest ?. Just a gut feel here. I think this game will be really ugly, and whom ever's D decides there going to win, will pull out this game. I like Minnys chances and will bite on the ML.

Edit: Just found out that Green Bay will be with out 3 of there starting linemen for this game. There center has just been ruled out for Monday nights game. I think this is huge, both teams Minnesota in particular could have alot of problems throwing the ball. T-jack had 3 quarters to play with Berrian and the rest of the WRs. Ryan Grant still hasnt taken a hand off since last year, and is having problems with his Hamstring. Now Grant signed a very incentive laden contract, so I expect him to play. But the big question is how well? Minnesota's strength last year was stopping the run. With Jared Allen in the mix, Kevin Williams/Pat Williams will not be double teamed and that definitely bodes well for our pass rush. This game comes down to who is going to make the big plays on Defense, and with Green Bay having problems on the Offensive line. I anticipate Bevel to throw a ton of blitzes at Aaron Rodgers, which should result in the Vikings winning the turnover battle here.

The big matchup to watch since Mckinnie is suspended for 4 games is Artis Hicks vs KGB. Its looking more and more now though that KGB will not be playing. So this gets nixed.

The Vikes are 7-1 ATS at GB.
The dog is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings
Road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

Seattle/Buffalo Under 39 3u

Seattle/Buffalo.

Seattle has only 2 winning seasons on the road in the history of there franchise.

They play the worst when making the cross country trips to the East Coast.

Seattle has a ton of ?s on offensive, Hasselbacks got a bad back, both Ingram and Branch wont play week 1. They are starting Morris and Jones at a RBC.

There D returns all 11 starters, and in the pre-season they averaged the most PPG (for what its worth)

With that being said, I think both Edwards and Hasselback are good game managers, and for see a low scoring game here.

Edit: added another unit on the under.
 
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Pittsburgh/Houston Over 43.5 3u

The Texans were 6-0 to the over in division play last year. They gave up 35.5 pts per game last year in division play. On the road last year they gave up 28 pts per game. In non division games they gave up 18 pts per game, and scored 20 pts per game in non division games.

Pitt averaged 25 pts per game at home last year. In non division games they gave up 17pts per game.

The Texas have a few question marks at RB with Green.Brown and Slaton in the backfield. Can Green stay healthy, will Brown be serviceable, and what impact will Slaton have. There WRs are lead by Andre Johnson who had a great year last year despite being hurt. There QBs are anchored by Matt Schaub who has alot to prove as the Day 1 starter, because S.R. played well in his absence last year. There O-Line is much improved from 3 seasons ago when they allowed 66 sacks. They also brought in Alex Gibbs, to implement the zone blocking scheme, to improve there running game, which was abysmal last year. On Defense the Texans are anchored by Mario Williams/Demaco Ryans/Amobi Okeye, but there back DBs are a big weakness. They allowed opposing QB's to throw all over them last year. This unit didn't pick off a ton of balls, and opposing WRs had some big games against them last year.


Pittsburgh has a unique offense where they stack the line with 2 TE sets, and pound the running game, but they also can spread the field with 4-5 WRS. Willie Parker is back from his leg injury, and was the leading rusher last year until he broke his leg. They add stud back in Rashard Mendenhall via the draft, and look to play both in 2 back sets. Big Ben is a year removed from the 2006 season where he had a ton of off season issues. He bounced back last year with a monster year, 2nd to only Tom Brady in QB efficiency. They also added another WR via the draft in Linus Sweed. The Steelers ranked #1 overall and #3 in rushing yards allowed last year. There defense is all experienced, but very old. The Steelers strength on defense plays into the Texans weakness on offense, and I'm thinking the Texans will end up airing out the ball more often. Which leads into the secondary led by Troy P. who just got of the PUP list, and is coming back injury.

Over is 7-2-1 in HOU last 10 road games
Over is 40-15-2 in PIT last 57 home games.
Over is 6-0 in Steelers last 6 games in Week 1

GL all :cheers:
 
well son of a bitch marlo, i'm opposite both your sides. gl on your totals and with the season bro
 
Cincy/Balti

The Play Cincy -1.5 1un

Cincy is a team that has man question marks. The WR corps are dinged up, they just cut there veteran RB Rudi Johnson, to go with injury prone Chris Perry as there day 1 starter. On defense they are starting 2 rookie cornerbacks, and a rookie safety. There defense was suspect last year, and still has question marks this year.

The Ravens are starting the number #18 overall pick this year in Flacco. Flacco was a stud in college, and was actually quite serviceable in the preseason. He through the Ravens only Touchdown pass, and with 40 pass attempt never threw an interception. I like the kid, I think he has a bright future in this league, but he is a rookie with a rookie head coach, and this is for real. This isnt preseason baby, week 1 are when the games matter. I read an interesting stat this week that over the last 10 years rookie QBs/ and rookie coaches have only won a game once out of 8 try's in this situation. Flacco is the starter by default here, Boller is done for the year, and Smith is injured. Also Mcgahee's not 100%.

The big question here is the Bengals defense, throughout camp they havent shown promise of improving, but you also have to understand there playing against a team, that isn't overly strong on the offensive end. I would rank Baltimore in the bottom tier of offenses. The Bengals went into Baltimore last year and didnt beat up on them (they actually didn't even score a td) they controlled the ball and got 7 field goals out of Shane Graham, and limited the Ravens to 1 late td in the 4th quarter. In the last 4 games the most passing yards Baltimore has put was 245.

When it comes down to it, I believe the Ravens offense crosses out Baltimore's Defense. Last year the Ravens were ranked 6th with 24pts given up, and 306 ypg. The Bengals were ranked 27th and gave up 24pts per game, but allowed 356 ypg.

The key difference here is you have a veteran play caller in Palmer, against a rookie in Flacco. Coaching is a toss up, cuz Lewis is a moron, but Harbaugh is in his first year. Offensively last year Cincy put up 23ppg, and 348 ypg ranked 10th in the NFL. The Ravens were ranked 22nd, with 17ppg, and 302 ypg.

This isn't a huge play for me, but a play never the less. I truly believe Cincy has something to prove all across the board. Lewis no doubt needs to put up a great season, or he is all but done. Perry has something to prove because they just cut there former franchise rb, and he has a stud in the wings waiting for him to screw up. 85 and TJ are both in contract years.


  • BAL are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. AFC.
  • BAL are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
  • BAL are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games on grass.
  • CIN are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in September.
  • Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
  • Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Gl guys :cheers:
 
The Giants were a play I was considering heavily. Really like it...

BOL the 1st week, Marlo...
 
Definetly agree with tomorrow night's game with you-NYG and Under

I did not know about GB's line injuries, especially their center so I appreciate that. So you have a newbie QB, on a national stage with 60% of his line gone? wow, gonna scratch my GB lean, but I don't trust T.Jackson at QB either so good luck to ya

Perfect write up on the Buffalo game...Agree 100%, might be a rare 2 teamer

No opinion on the Over in Pittsburgh...like the logic though

Cincy might make their way onto my lean list....Good luck
 
BOL big marlo, looks good.... likin the giants alot but i have-4.5 now. not sure what to do with it

good writeups and heres to a good season my brotha:cheers:
 
nope

latest ive been up in god knows

no class today i dont give a fuck

im still drinking till i pass out and waiting for ETG to get on so i can yell at him and feel better..... hopefully get a free pass at his sister

hes still the man and knows a helluva lot more about NCAAF then i do, but he had me sold on them cocks and I even pm'ed him an hr before the game when i was thinking about buying out of both SC plays
 
CapTwo said:
nope

latest ive been up in god knows

no class today i dont give a fuck

im still drinking till i pass out and waiting for ETG to get on so i can yell at him and feel better..... hopefully get a free pass at his sister

hes still the man and knows a helluva lot more about NCAAF then i do, but he had me sold on them cocks and I even pm'ed him an hr before the game when i was thinking about buying out of both SC plays
Click to expand...

remember the tout that called me?
 
sometimes homerism gets in the middle of our betting, it happens, shit

if anyone plays the jets you can yell at me after tomororw because im going to say why i like them so much at -3. and its a damn public bet... and a lot of people like the fish

cant hate, just prolly shoulda bought out of sc. if anythin learned a lesson about that team this year
if the jets dont cover you can all ban me

lets hit some winners this weekend you motherfucker, GL
 
CapTwo said:
sometimes homerism gets in the middle of our betting, it happens, shit

if anyone plays the jets you can yell at me after tomororw because im going to say why i like them so much at -3. and its a damn public bet... and a lot of people like the fish

cant hate, just prolly shoulda bought out of sc. if anythin learned a lesson about that team this year
if the jets dont cover you can all ban me

lets hit some winners this weekend you motherfucker, GL
Click to expand...

Cap to be honest man, I lean towards the Jets. Who gives a fuck if its a public play or not. I'm not a big fan of backing a team that was 1-15 last season. Also look at the Jets they improved at O-Line, and QB. Look at all the backs that every played for Favre in GB....Thomas Jones may have one of his better years in the NFL. Your WRS will also improve because of the old Gunslinger.

And who do the Fins have?
 
Jets have dominated this series for over 10 years

Jets are 19-4-2 ATS in their last 25 meetings.
 
The giants should have had 2 more scores and left the skins with a goose egg but it boils down to wins not pins.
Bol on the season and your card for this week..
:cheers:
 
Marlo Stanfield said:
Jets have dominated this series for over 10 years

Jets are 19-4-2 ATS in their last 25 meetings.
Click to expand...


...what does that have to do with ANYTHING???

what is with all these handicappers going back 10 years in history to find a stat to support their educated guesses?...

If you like the Jets THIS year...against THESE Dolphins...

a "nice writeup" should be indicative of pre-season progress...gametime matchups...weather...articles with interviews from players with lockeroom morale...things that are actually going to be pertinant to 2008!!!!

of course any serious handicapper wouldn't be throwing out any more than "single unit" plays on the first few weeks...b/c all the data and info you can gather prior to game one amounts to very little and 60% is a wetdream under those circumstances of a longated timetable...stop trying for the "nice writeup" comments and figure out a way to get your ego up elsewhere please.:shake:
 
there's a lot of talk about Chad vs Farve in week one...soo many added dynamics to speak about...hell, last year's stats are pretty meaningless at this point due to two new starting QBs :/
 
Iluv2gamble said:
...what does that have to do with ANYTHING???

what is with all these handicappers going back 10 years in history to find a stat to support their educated guesses?...

If you like the Jets THIS year...against THESE Dolphins...

a "nice writeup" should be indicative of pre-season progress...gametime matchups...weather...articles with interviews from players with lockeroom morale...things that are actually going to be pertinant to 2008!!!!

of course any serious handicapper wouldn't be throwing out any more than "single unit" plays on the first few weeks...b/c all the data and info you can gather prior to game one amounts to very little and 60% is a wetdream under those circumstances of a longated timetable...stop trying for the "nice writeup" comments and figure out a way to get your ego up elsewhere please.:shake:
Click to expand...

1.) Do you see it listed as a play?
2.) Did I writeup this game?
3.) This is for the comment I had, but deleted
4.) This isnt covers.com
5.) take a look at the handicappers on this site. Many of them use different methods of handicapping. I, nor 99% of the people on this site give a shit how someone caps, as long as were beating the book.
6.) I have a hot girlfriend, more than enough friends, a good golf game, a great job, a awesome lifestyle, I'm a republican, I contribute to society, rather than take fucking hand outs, and downstairs im doing just fine....so buddy I don't need a fucking ego boost. :shake:
7.) what and when I bet on a game is my prerogative. Its my money that I have either worked hard for, or earned gambling.

I will give you the benefit of the doubt, because you have no idea when we were discussing this game. But please save this shit for over there.
 
Nawlins thanks buddy, glad to see you back in the swing of things man after last weekend.
 
Marlo Stanfield said:
Nawlins thanks buddy, glad to see you back in the swing of things man after last weekend.
Click to expand...


Thanks.It looks like Ike is eyeing the same landfall.I think we are in trouble down here if this one hits.I don't think my house can take it. Lets hope it vanishes and nobody has to deal with it.:cheers:
 
Buffalo/Seattle
Buffalo -1 1.5u
Added another unit on the Under as well 38.5

Last year Buffalo was 7-9, and Seattle was 10-6. Buffalo didn't make the playoffs, and Seattle made it into the semifinals, before getting a beat down against GB. Last year the Bills identity was the running game, and Seattles was there passing game.

This year a few things have changed. Last year Buffalo ranked 31st in the league in yards allowed. So they went out and grabbed Marcus Stroud via trade in the offseason, Kawika Mitchell via F/A. The Bills finally have there entire secondary from a group that was bothered by injuries and was ranked near the bottom in passing yards allowed. The person that should benefit the most from Strouds signing is Schobel, who was double teamed all year last year. They also get there stud LB from Penn State back this year after ending his year early last year from a broken arm.

Seattle defensive pass rush was dominant last year recording 45 sacks, good for 4th in the league. There defense is anchored by Kearney and Trufont. Peters will not play in this game for Buffalo, and he is the heart and soul of the Bills offensive line in pass protection.

Keys for the Buffalo win are simple. Run, Run, Run. They need to establish a running game with Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson. Edwards got an extra weapon for his WR corps with the addition of James Hardy via the draft. I expect Buffalo to run the ball between 30-40 times. Trent Edwards was 5-4 last year as a starter, and was a great game manager. His favorite target Lee Evans, will be covered by Trufont, so a big game is needed out of Hardy.

Seattle is hurting on offense. Neither Branch or Engram will play, they lost Shaun Alexander, but added Julius Jones. Hasselback played just 2 possessions in the preseason, and has only practiced once since injuring his back in July. From everything I read he says he feels healthy. Hasselback has been abused since they let go of Steve Hutchinson, they still have Big Walter Jones, but I expect Buffalo's D can get after Hasselback and take advantage of some of the rust he may have.

Seattle looks better on paper than Buffalo does, but Seattle has a history of traveling to the East Coast for early games, and not playing up to par. Because of there injuries at WR, I can't see Seattle's lack of rushing attack find success they have had in the past.

Buffalo is not dominant on offense, but I have a hard time having confidence in Seattle, who seems to be struck with injury after injury. Key for Buffalo to win this game, besides running the ball is to win the turnover battle.
 
Plays so far
Gmen -3 3.5u W
Buffalo -1 1u W
Cincy -1.5 1u L
Pitt/Hou Over 43.5 3u W
Minnesota ML +120 2u
Seattle/Buffalo Under 39 2u, Under 38.5 1u L
Detroit -3 1.5u L
Detroit reverse 10.5 +250 1u L
Jets -3 1.5u W

ML Parlay #1
Eagles/Bengals/Patriots/Colts/Lions
1unit to win 3.5

ML Parlay #2
Philly/Pats/Colts
1.57 unit to win 1.

Teaser
Bengals +7.5
Lions +6
Eagles pk
Chargers pk
Colts -.5
Jets +6
.50 to win .50



Detroit -10.5 1 u+250 reverse
Detroit -3 1.5u

This game has all the makings of sucker bet. Line opened at pk, and has moved to 3-3.5 at most places. I haven't seen a single person on ATL....but the bigger question is what in the Hell has Atlanta done to warrant people putting money on them.
  • Atlanta needed help to sell out there stadium, save to say this probably hasn't happened since before the Michael Vick era
  • They traded away Hall, Crumpler, and Dunn
  • Rookie QB, Rookie Coach, New GM, rookies on the O-Line
  • Rookies at CB. Against two of the dominant WRs in the NFC
  • They did sign Turner for big money
  • Detroit is better than they were last year on all sides of the ball
  • They are committed to the run, which will allow Kitna to open up the passing game for Megatron/Williams.
  • Alot of talent for Det at running back. Kitna has said Johnson looks like the guy he used to play with back in Cinci. Kevin Smith should be a stud in this league, and could be the dominant back in the NFC Central not named peterson or grant.
This is your perfect sink or swim game. Either its a battle and a 9-6 game, or Detroit just smothers them 35-6, 35-10. Can't help myself here.

Card should almost be complete might throw in a teaser or another reverse.
 
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GL today Marlo. with you on PIT over, BUF, and CIN today. Can you believe it, those Gophers actually looked respectable yesterday? Too bad I unloaded on BG before the game. Oh well...
 
P-Unit said:
GL today Marlo. with you on PIT over, BUF, and CIN today. Can you believe it, those Gophers actually looked respectable yesterday? Too bad I unloaded on BG before the game. Oh well...
Click to expand...

Thanks P....and i bet against them as well. Missed most of the game, but it looked like they won the TO battle.
 
Ol' Brew had the D flying around. Lots of big hits to force fumbles. I caught the game at Senser's because it was on ESPNU and not on the BTN. Go figure...
 
ML Parlay #1
Eagles/Bengals/Patriots/Colts/Lions
1unit to win 3.5

ML Parlay #2
Philly/Pats/Colts
1.57 unit to win 1.

Teaser
Bengals +7.5
Lions +6
Eagles pk
Chargers pk
Colts -.5
Jets +6
.50 to win .50


 
P-Unit said:
Ol' Brew had the D flying around. Lots of big hits to force fumbles. I caught the game at Senser's because it was on ESPNU and not on the BTN. Go figure...
Click to expand...

I watched the 1st game up at Sensers, I was over at Jakes in EP watching parts of this one. Good thing is if we go 4-0 on the in non-conference play, we should be over valued going into the Big 10 season.
 
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