smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
Week: 1
0-0
Looking forward to a profitable 2014
Min/Stl UNDER 45 (1.25)
My line: Stl -2 42
The line drop due to the Bradford injury is excessive IMO. I don’t him rated close to being worth to 3 points on the betting line. My week 1 lines are based on using PFF’s player rating system, and combining it with the current state of the team as I see it, based off my team research. Offensively, Minnesota rates a 6.5 on my scale (tied with Detroit), while the Rams rate a 2.5. The Vikings are hurt by their lack of options at QB, but are bolstered by an elite back in Peterson, and a high quality offensive line, and good starters at the skill positions. The defense has some good starters, and some unknowns such as Anthony Barr. The Rams offense is terrible from a skill position standpoint, with only Zac Stacey rating as a good starter, however, I did upgrade the WR unit, as it looks like they have finally built some depth at that position. That being said, Kenny Britt needs to show up.
In the end, I bet UNDER 45 before the Bradford injury, as I see both teams relying on their running game to get things going. Large chunks of yards are possible with Patterson on the field, and if the Rams WR’s can create separation, however, Shaun Hill’s are strength to make throws remains a questions mark. Last season, the Rams ranked 30[SUP]th[/SUP] in plays per game, and Minny 22[SUP]nd[/SUP], so the large chunks will have to be there for pts to be scored. I do like the Vikings shot at a SU win, but I’m going to see if I can get more bang for the buck. I have this one pegged 21-17.
Jax/Phila
My Line: Phila -10
The arrow is pointing up for Jax, no doubt about it. However, I believe it will take a couple of games, before we see some true value on the betting line. To think the league is going to “catch on” to Chip Kelly’s offense is plain ignorant. To think Nick Foles is going to thow 27 TD’s and 2 Int’s is equally ignorant. The Eagles will be a good team this year, because they are DEEPER than last. Keeping he focus on the game is hand, the line is correct IMO, however, I have circled Jax as a team to watch IF the young offensive line improves, and Marquise Lee can emerge as a true weapon. I have this one sitting at 31-21.
Cle/Pitt: My Play UNDER 42 (1.25)
My line: Pitt -5.5 38
Strong lean to the under here for me that will likely become a bet, but I don’t like fighting the market, which is pushing this line higher, that being said, if I see a “42”, I’m buying. The Steelers have touted their new up-tempo offense, and they finished the last qtr of the season putting up points. However, they enter this one with limited weapons. With Lance Moore out, their only slot threat is out. Now you’re looking at guys like Markus Wheaton, Justin Brown, Martavious Brown, and Darrius Heyward Bay. Not impressive. Running the ball with weed brothers is a likely option, but those large chunk of yards are going to be hard to come by. On the flips side, the Steelers defense, which flat out sucked last year, is being touted as faster and younger this year. That looks to be the case, but let’s see it against live fire.
The Browns bring one of the most overrated defenses in the league to the table. They had one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses and were very, very bad in defending the redzone. Last season, their offense flat out sucked and was confused. They passed the ball on 68% of all their offense plays last season, SECOND in the NFL. You think that was Josh Gordon driven? I don’t expect that to be the case this year, and with now Gordon, and teams focusing on Cameron more, I don’t expect much from him either. So on Sunday, the Browns will trot out Travis Benjamin, Miles Austin, Andrew Hawkins, and Earl Bennett. So we have two teams with missing offensive weapons, one team with an improved defense, and another that really isn’t all it’s made out to be, and both devoid of playmakers. I don’t see Cleveland getting more than 14 pts here, and my numbers call for Pitt to be in the 17 to 24 range. 24-14 seems very logical to me.
Of note:
NO/ATL: PASS
My line: NO -3 50
As the preseason began to wind down, the Saints became what the public decided to be a “sexy” pick to win the super bowl. Offensively, the idea that Brian Cooks is going to replace Darren Sproles is asinine. Anyone who has watched the Saints for the past 3-4 years knows how much “hidden” passing yards Bree’s generates on simply dump offs to Sproles. Well, that’s gone. I think the Saints will have a great offense again this year, and the Saints currently sit at 5[SUP]th[/SUP] in my PR. I’m a believer that the Falcons will be much improved this season. Their season was robbed last year due to injury, and overall lack of execution on both sides of the ball. However, Ryan has his weapons back, and the offensive line looks to be improved w/ Jake Matthews set to make an instant impact. In addition the signing of Jon Asamoah, and Gabe Carimi add depth. With all the shit their line took last year, they were still 7[SUP]th[/SUP] in offense pass protection efficiency. The question I have is with the defense. They were rated 32[SUP]nd[/SUP] in the defensive pass, rush, and yds/pass efficiency last year. How do you solve that in one year? You don’t. Of their 7 draft picks, 6 were on the defensive side of the ball. FA saw them grab Javier Arenas, Paul Soliai, Josh Wilson, and Tyson Jackson an Dwight Lowry.
Saint’s should win this game IMO, and “3” seems to be the right number. However, the Falcons are a team that I’m going to keep my eye on. This thing moves above “3”, and I feel the value will lie with ATL at that point. Before last season, ATL was 20-4 SU at home during the Matt Ryan era (2010,2011,2012)
Will be adding more thoughts and plays as the market develops.
Good Luck.
:shake:
0-0
Looking forward to a profitable 2014
Min/Stl UNDER 45 (1.25)
My line: Stl -2 42
The line drop due to the Bradford injury is excessive IMO. I don’t him rated close to being worth to 3 points on the betting line. My week 1 lines are based on using PFF’s player rating system, and combining it with the current state of the team as I see it, based off my team research. Offensively, Minnesota rates a 6.5 on my scale (tied with Detroit), while the Rams rate a 2.5. The Vikings are hurt by their lack of options at QB, but are bolstered by an elite back in Peterson, and a high quality offensive line, and good starters at the skill positions. The defense has some good starters, and some unknowns such as Anthony Barr. The Rams offense is terrible from a skill position standpoint, with only Zac Stacey rating as a good starter, however, I did upgrade the WR unit, as it looks like they have finally built some depth at that position. That being said, Kenny Britt needs to show up.
In the end, I bet UNDER 45 before the Bradford injury, as I see both teams relying on their running game to get things going. Large chunks of yards are possible with Patterson on the field, and if the Rams WR’s can create separation, however, Shaun Hill’s are strength to make throws remains a questions mark. Last season, the Rams ranked 30[SUP]th[/SUP] in plays per game, and Minny 22[SUP]nd[/SUP], so the large chunks will have to be there for pts to be scored. I do like the Vikings shot at a SU win, but I’m going to see if I can get more bang for the buck. I have this one pegged 21-17.
Jax/Phila
My Line: Phila -10
The arrow is pointing up for Jax, no doubt about it. However, I believe it will take a couple of games, before we see some true value on the betting line. To think the league is going to “catch on” to Chip Kelly’s offense is plain ignorant. To think Nick Foles is going to thow 27 TD’s and 2 Int’s is equally ignorant. The Eagles will be a good team this year, because they are DEEPER than last. Keeping he focus on the game is hand, the line is correct IMO, however, I have circled Jax as a team to watch IF the young offensive line improves, and Marquise Lee can emerge as a true weapon. I have this one sitting at 31-21.
Cle/Pitt: My Play UNDER 42 (1.25)
My line: Pitt -5.5 38
Strong lean to the under here for me that will likely become a bet, but I don’t like fighting the market, which is pushing this line higher, that being said, if I see a “42”, I’m buying. The Steelers have touted their new up-tempo offense, and they finished the last qtr of the season putting up points. However, they enter this one with limited weapons. With Lance Moore out, their only slot threat is out. Now you’re looking at guys like Markus Wheaton, Justin Brown, Martavious Brown, and Darrius Heyward Bay. Not impressive. Running the ball with weed brothers is a likely option, but those large chunk of yards are going to be hard to come by. On the flips side, the Steelers defense, which flat out sucked last year, is being touted as faster and younger this year. That looks to be the case, but let’s see it against live fire.
The Browns bring one of the most overrated defenses in the league to the table. They had one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses and were very, very bad in defending the redzone. Last season, their offense flat out sucked and was confused. They passed the ball on 68% of all their offense plays last season, SECOND in the NFL. You think that was Josh Gordon driven? I don’t expect that to be the case this year, and with now Gordon, and teams focusing on Cameron more, I don’t expect much from him either. So on Sunday, the Browns will trot out Travis Benjamin, Miles Austin, Andrew Hawkins, and Earl Bennett. So we have two teams with missing offensive weapons, one team with an improved defense, and another that really isn’t all it’s made out to be, and both devoid of playmakers. I don’t see Cleveland getting more than 14 pts here, and my numbers call for Pitt to be in the 17 to 24 range. 24-14 seems very logical to me.
Of note:
- Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
- Since 2009, Cleveland has scored more than 14 pts H2H w/ Pitt ONCE (11/25/12)
NO/ATL: PASS
My line: NO -3 50
As the preseason began to wind down, the Saints became what the public decided to be a “sexy” pick to win the super bowl. Offensively, the idea that Brian Cooks is going to replace Darren Sproles is asinine. Anyone who has watched the Saints for the past 3-4 years knows how much “hidden” passing yards Bree’s generates on simply dump offs to Sproles. Well, that’s gone. I think the Saints will have a great offense again this year, and the Saints currently sit at 5[SUP]th[/SUP] in my PR. I’m a believer that the Falcons will be much improved this season. Their season was robbed last year due to injury, and overall lack of execution on both sides of the ball. However, Ryan has his weapons back, and the offensive line looks to be improved w/ Jake Matthews set to make an instant impact. In addition the signing of Jon Asamoah, and Gabe Carimi add depth. With all the shit their line took last year, they were still 7[SUP]th[/SUP] in offense pass protection efficiency. The question I have is with the defense. They were rated 32[SUP]nd[/SUP] in the defensive pass, rush, and yds/pass efficiency last year. How do you solve that in one year? You don’t. Of their 7 draft picks, 6 were on the defensive side of the ball. FA saw them grab Javier Arenas, Paul Soliai, Josh Wilson, and Tyson Jackson an Dwight Lowry.
Saint’s should win this game IMO, and “3” seems to be the right number. However, the Falcons are a team that I’m going to keep my eye on. This thing moves above “3”, and I feel the value will lie with ATL at that point. Before last season, ATL was 20-4 SU at home during the Matt Ryan era (2010,2011,2012)
Will be adding more thoughts and plays as the market develops.
Good Luck.
:shake:
