NFL Week 1 plays/leans

frankiegotti

Power Boat Enthusiast
YTD: 0-0

all plays are considered 1 unit unless otherwise stated. I also will do double and triple plays. With that out of the way lets get started.

Only thing i really like tonight is:

New Orleans Saints team total points going over 23.5. I think this goes over because as pre season went on their offense seemed to get stronger and develop more chemistry which is what you want and what the preseason is designed for. Colts defense will do get as much of a push in the middle which will allow extra help on the edges for dwight freeney (which is a freak of nature).

BOL tonight more comming.

Locked In:

New Orleans Saints Team Total points Over 23.5
 
McAllister up the middle and Brees to Eric Johnson will expose Indy's Cover 2; I just hope Payton learned his lesson from last season's NFC championship game when he gave Deuce the ball only 8 or 9 times versus the Bears' Cover 2. I can also see Bush ripping the Indy D via screen passes. We shall see... GL man
 
well i guess we were all surprised and usually when i lose my first game of the season i end up doing well, so i could consider it a moral victory i guess??
 
Leans:

Jacksonville -6.5: I liek them in this spot because it appears as if this team is transitioning into the future with the elimination of their old QB and emergence of Garrad last season will be solid performer for their team this season. I believe that the titans offensive line will be in shambles this season and vince young will suffer as a result be a lot of throwing on the run and bad mechanics will become of it.

Cleveland +4.5- First off i am a browns fan so take it as you want. Second, pittsburgh is not going in the right direction in terms of personnel. I think cleveland will be in the top 15 in defense this year due to having rookies playing last year knowing the 3-4 system very well this year. The thing that worries me about this game is the offensive line for the browns. The starters have not played together all preseason so they may lack chemistry and RYan Tucker (RT) will be suspended for the first 4 games. Although in the end i think the browns win outright in a 21-17 type game.
 
Houston Texans -3: I really believe that texans will be one of the most improved teams this year. THey are building their defense the right way, through the draft and adding quality players on both sides of the ball. KC will be having problems all year handling defensive lines. Last year Texan linebackers did a great job pluging holes and making plays. Larry Johnson is not expected to handle the bulk of the load in week 1, as he is not in "football shape" yet according to herm edwards. I expect that to happen this year with a texan win by 10.

St. Louis -1: I really like this team for some reason this year, they have been adding quality players through the offseason. Panthers boast probally the best defensive line in the league but on the other side of the ball is stephan jackson who may obtain 2500 all purpose yards. Bulger will terrorize the secondary and panthers offense will struggle as steve smith will be double team all game long.

Philadelphia -3: I have picked this team to win the division this year. I think with donovan knowing that his days are numbered with the selection of Kolb. There defensive and offensive lines will do well as they always do. Phile wins by 13 here.

Oakland -2: Oakland's defense will keep them in every game they play but on the flip side will their offense be soo bad that their defense will need to score points. I think their offense will do ok and will manage them the ability to win this game.

San Diego -6: I do not think that Rex is the long term answer and his arm strength is a definite question. I like san diego to win time of position and win this match up by 10 with the emergence of vincent jackson and a dominating defensive lines will force rex into poor choices.

Seattle -6: Tampa is in a bad way right now with 3 QB's that can start on this roster. Their #1 draft pick Gaines Adams will be good in time, but i do not think he will be effective in the season opener. Seattle will get back to winning the division this year as i think they run away with this one.

GL to all
 
Locked In:

Philadelphia Eagles -3- I think the eagles prove why they are the class of the division. I do not think that the linebackers will be able to handle people comming out of the backfield and the different TE looks.
 
Cleveland Browns +5 (WSEX)- I think they do very well in this game today. Mainly because of the maturity and development of several players i.e. braylon edwards, kam wimbley (OLB), sean jones (saftey), D'QUell Jackson (ILB), and improved depth at CB and quality. I think it leads to a outright win, i do not think i will need the points but i'll take them non the less.

Houston Texans -3 -I just like this team for some reason they are taking the steps in the right direction by building the team from the ground up. Meaning they are drafting players to fill the trench needs.

BOL to all tommorow
 
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