NFL Week 1 Pick 'em Pool Betting Trends

Colin Wynner

Pretty much a regular
I play in a fairly large pick ‘em pool, (1187 players this week) where you pick 6 games a week (both CFB and NFL available) based on static lines as of Thursday AM. I have used the picks in this pool to drive some plays and thought I post for the group, I will do a similar one in the CFB forum.

The pool has gotten “sharper” over the years but I would say in general it is a square pool. Not sure any of this is earth shattering information, as most of us can tell where the public is betting but this is another confirmation.

NFL Week 1 most lopsided games based on this specific pool (teams is this situation went 50-71 (41%) ATS last year; a dreadful 2-16 in the first two weeks):

Game/SpreadTotal PicksRank
Jaguars -5 over ColtsJags 260 (86%) Colts 41 (14%)Overall: 3rd most picked game; NFL: Most picked game
Eagles -4 over PatsEagles 235 (82%) Pats 51 (18%)Overall: 4th most picked game; NFL: 2nd most picked game
Commanders -7 over CardinalsCommanders 164 (93%) Cardinals 13 (7%)Overall: 16th; NFL: 11th
Seahawks -5.5 over RamsSeahawks 168 (84%) Rams 32 (16%)Overall: 14th; NFL: 9th
Vikings -6 over BucsVikings 161 (79%) Bucs 42 (21%)Overall: 13th; NFL 8th
Falcons -3.5 over PanthersFalcons 112 (77%) Panthers 34 (23%)Overall: 18th; NFL: 13th
Ravens -10 over TexansRavens 111 (77%) Texans 34 (23%)Overall: 19th; NFL: 14th
Bears -1 over PackersBears 156 (75%) Packers 51 (25%)Overall: 11th; NFL: 6th

Again, these are static lines but some of the movements are counter to the above Vikings down to -5/-5.5; Jags -4.5; Seahawks -5 and Ravens -9.5.

There is one public dog this week:

Giants +3.5 119 Picks to 86 Picks for the Cowboys.

Fade away - Good Luck!
 
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Good stuff. Fading public pick ems is always something to look at. Especially with one that size

Thanks for posting
 
Yes this is very good stuff.

How is the 9ers Pitt game?

Cowboys are a ML banger for me. Public loves G Men and Cowboys absolutely own that overrated bunch.
 
Yes this is very good stuff.

How is the 9ers Pitt game?

Cowboys are a ML banger for me. Public loves G Men and Cowboys absolutely own that overrated bunch.

Sorry, I didn't see this - 49ers 157 Steelers 115. Overall the NFL is 48% heading into Sunday night; lop-sided picks 4-4.
 
Good thread. Keep posting. There are other sources for similar info, but always good to have another data point.
 
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