NFL Tips 2020

[Squirrel]

I get it's a weird year, but wondering if any of you that have had success in recent years have any tips for betting NFL in general.

Used to do very well in NFL and it was my primary money maker, but the past few years its flipped and I've consistently done well in college and then donk away most or all profits on Sunday. (Example +2.5k this Saturday, -2k on Sunday). The obvious answer is to just pause or quit betting NFL altogether, but I enjoy betting football way too much and don't have the discipline to avoid NFL completely.

Player props and totals surprisingly haven't been too terrible, but ATS/ML has been a complete dumpster fire the past few years. I try to pick my spots more in NFL to correct things but even doing that a .500 week feels like a win.

Any angles/strategies you've found successful or tips to help stop the bleeding?

 

[Squirrel]

Sorry for the rant, a bit on tilt from the repetition. Realize this is pretty generic and tough to answer. Any recommendations for people to follow or things that have made a difference in your NFL capping are greatly appreciated.

 

[skanless13]

You're tripping me out with your avatar. For a second I was wondering when I wrote this...

 

[Squirrel]

 

[Squirrel]

Lol, I randomly set it as mine when I signed up and then came across yours one day in a thread.. was curious when we would cross paths. You've been here longer so I'll concede. Really cornered myself with the username.

 

[B.A.R.]

This is hilarious because it's made me doubletake for a few years when browsing who's online etc with the double avatars.

 

[2daBank]

I just bet way more on Saturday then cut my bet sizes way down on Sunday.

 

[Squirrel]

Yeah that's a logical strategy. Doesn't Bookmaker release the following week's lines on Sunday for CFB? That'd help my dumb ass from adding throughout the day.

 

[B.A.R.]

Yeah that's a logical strategy. Doesn't Bookmaker release the following week's lines on Sunday for CFB? That'd help my dumb ass from adding throughout the day.

Yes, as does BOL.

 

[B.A.R.]

What do you bet?

Have you tried to adjust a bit?

Sides and totals are tough. Props can be fruitful early but then get tough.

Live has lots of possibilities...

 

[Gandolf]

Week 2 staple - bet the 0-1 teams playing 1-0 teams. Fade the week 1 overreaction.

Interesting group
NYGiants +5.5
Detroit +6
Miami +5
Denver +7
Houston +7

 

[Squirrel]

Yeah Bengals and Cowboys were my big downfall this past week. Just went too hard on them both, that kickers dead to me in Cincy. Hit some games early and then just got a little reckless with adding stuff. Props I'm usually pretty decent at, but missed 3-4 receiving yd props by less than 10 yds each

 

[Squirrel]

Feel like I've probably become ultra conscious of being on the right side of key numbers in NFL, and maybe overly so. Also, think I've just shifted too much research time toward college and haven't done enough for NFL.

 

[Squirrel]

To answer your question though @B.A.R. I do mostly sides and totals ha. Agree that shifting live is probably the move and not sure why I haven't leveraged it more.

 

[B.A.R.]

To answer your question though @B.A.R. I do mostly sides and totals ha. Agree that shifting live is probably the move and not sure why I haven't leveraged it more.

It could be as simple as shifting to quarters, or 2hs ...

Adjust to the game is a big thing for me. Every year is different. I've gotten in front and behind in many sports.

 

[Hulu]

Feel like I've probably become ultra conscious of being on the right side of key numbers in NFL, and maybe overly so. Also, think I've just shifted too much research time toward college and haven't done enough for NFL.

I've been thinking a lot about this too lately. Especially as key numbers change as the game changes. 6 and 8 are becoming more significant while 7 becomes less so for example.

 

[Hulu]

It could be as simple as shifting to quarters, or 2hs ...

Adjust to the game is a big thing for me. Every year is different. I've gotten in front and behind in many sports.

Yeah this is big. Have to constantly adjust and reinvent your technique to keep ahead of the market and the evolution of the game. Reset your baselines, challenge old assumptions etc. That's probably what I love most about this hobby, it never lets me get comfortable.

 

[skanless13]

Lol, I randomly set it as mine when I signed up and then came across yours one day in a thread.. was curious when we would cross paths. You've been here longer so I'll concede. Really cornered myself with the username.

Thank you bro.