NFL This Playoffs W2

[ScopeY]

0-4 -5.27 Sides
12-11 -2.2 Player Props

3 of the sides can directly be attributed to the buffalo collapse.
Think props could have been better had wentz stayed in, but who knows. (lockett/wilson props specifically)

MIN@SFO

Lean heavily SFO, and even the under... if SFO builds a lead, pace of the game will reallllly slow down, may be better for live betting purposes. Going back to the well with cook catching props, in a game that they're 7 point dogs for. We see how much they utilize him, and its a favorable situation, especially if the wr's are to be locked up. Minnesota is the #1 defense this weekend in terms of giving up fantasy points to WR's. While I like sanders, I think its samuel that I will be looking at. Shanahan wants to get this guy the ball and continues to find creative ways to do so. I want to trust mostert, and his rushing prop doesn't seem to difficult, but one mistake, and there's 2 rbs waiting to step in (over the last 3 games he's averaged less than a 55% snap share), but game script/flow shows that he can easily hit that 53 yard mark, I'm prepared to kick myself when he hits it.

D. Cook O33.5 +115 Receiving Yards
D. Cook O3.5 -106 Receptions
D. Samuel O50.5 -106 Receiving Yards (2 Units)

TEN@BAl

Both teams are known for long sustained drives. This gives them a good look for plays per game, but what it really does is skew down the opponents average plays per game.... something has to give, and its why I see both numbers being less than their averages. I don't think I can dismiss the titans like most people want too. Teams continue to know that they need to stop henry... but nobody has. And baltimores run defense is not polarizing at all, and can be had (which is weird to see, because they have had to had big leads in a ton of games this year - memory bank comment). Since Tannehill taking over, he's been up there in a lot of QB metrics, if he can limit early drive mistakes, I can see tenny hanging with them (going to buy it to 10.5). Profootball doctor says no way can ingram be 100% if he plays, couple that with the below average amount of plays (that I believe), as well as capable backs, and jackson rushing attempts, and I really like his under prop. While I think hollywood can hit a homerun here (and my daily lineups hope so), It's mark andrews that has the most receiving appeal on this team, he leads the team in targets and air yards, and its not that close. Add in that the titans are the 7th worst team in the NFL at stopping the TE.

Tennessee Titans +10.5 -125 (2 Units)

D. Henry O100.5 -126 Total Rushing & Receiving Yards
M Ingram U50.5 -112 Rushing Yards (2 Units)
M. Andrews O52.5 -112

 

[B.A.R.]

Terrific write-ups @ScopeY ... Thank ya!

 

[B.A.R.]

Well, I feel like that 1st game shoulda went 2-1 but no need to throw really after getting up 2 scores. Deebo play was good, either way.

 

[ScopeY]

Ya, what did they have, 0 throws in the 2nd half??? 42 yards in the first... oh well. SFO/Under were successful too.

Titans game worked well. tight ends for Baltimore had a total of 17 targets, Andrews had 7, but unfortunately caught just 4 for 39. Rest were winners.

1-0 +2 Sides
3-3 -.24 Props

HOU@KC

I want to start, and probably finish my rant with T. Hill. The guy has the biggest mismatch at wrVScb that I have seen in a few weeks. The only way he does not dominated DFS lineups/props is if KC gets up like 21+ on turnovers early, with early rushing success as well, and he gets phased out (see deebo)... but even still, I can't see this happening. He's set up for a massive day, and they have a terrible pass rush situation (but I know a lot of those statistics are without Watt). Either way hill should have opportunities for 4+ dynamite plays. and he doesn't need all of them to achieve winners. Houston is ranked 5th in the NFL in fantasy points given up to TEs, so it makes sense to go for kelce too. Over the last 3 games, they're the only 2 passing threats that have been on the field for 80%+ of the snaps and they hoard 50% of the targets. Should both have room to eat here. In terms of pace of play, Houston is a smidgen above the league average, and kansas city is actually fast, but tend to slow it down when there is a 2 possession lead (so heres to houston keeping it relatively close.... not sure if they can though). Either way, I think the pace of play will be the fastest of the weekend (semi obvious), if KC builds a lead, houston will be faster than there slight above average play, and if close, we know kansas city won't slow anything down. Sign me up. There's one last person I don't want to leave out in KC, and that's damien williams. He has no threat of Darrel (IR), Ware (IR), McCoy (Aging/slow/currently 3rd on depth chart), or Darwin (9 carries combined in last 2 games, and one was even a blow out). He saw 51% of snaps in his first game back (the blow out a couple weeks back), and that rose to 66% week 17. It's the playoffs now and it should only get higher. He is a very efficient back, and its who we are finally seeing/hoping we saw when we drafted him in yearlong leagues....Houston is also ranked 5th in the NFL in fantasy points given up to RBs. I'd rank them Hill>Williams>Kelce, in terms of fantasy relevancy, but can see the arguement for any order, and weirdly enough, I think they all will be succesful. I can't say houston wont be succesful either, and obviously need to talk about kansas citys inability to stop the run as well. But I don't trust hyde, I don't trust gameflow/script, and can see abandonment of it early and often. D. Johnson receiving props can be fine, I had it last week, but I don't like how he was minimally used in a game they were down 16 (so I have my concerns there). My attention shifts to two places. Dhop, who finished 6 for 90 last week, in what was his toughest matchup, and D. Fells, who played on 96% of snaps, watson loves him, and there is still no Jordan Akins for houston (the man who would lower his snaps). Oh, and KC is ranked 9th in FPPG given up to TE's. Oh ya, don't forget Hill.

Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 -110
Houston Texans/Kansas City Chiefs O50.5 -110 (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs TTo 30.5 -104

Damien Williams O54.5 -155 Rushing Yards (2 Units)
Damien Williams O23.5 -141 Receiving Yards (2 Units)
Tyreek Hill O74.5 -115 Receiving Yards (4 Smackers)

DeAndre Hopkins O77.5 -106
D. Fells O25.5 -112 Receiving Yatds (2 Units)
D. Fells O2.5 -122 Receptions (2 Units)

SEA@GBP

I feel like people are just discrediting the packers, but maybe I'm off on that. Rodgers is in a situation where he should not be pressured, couple that with a favorable Oline push for aaron jones, and a below average defense as a whole. While jones should be succesful, Adams has the 2nd best matchup of the weekend and the extra time will only make it harder to cover him (which is still so far below that guy named Hill). Let this be a reminder to, but Seattle is ranked 2nd in FFPG to TE's... Jimmy G is definitely a redzone threat for rodgers, and I may look into a td prop for him... ahhh the ultimate variance prop in this sport. The weakness to GBP, is the success RBs can have... but does anyone really see the seattle backfield threatening them? This all falls on wilson, and I can't trust it today, and idk why you would want to pay for it to happen. Give me the team that will have success moving the ball, and will limit turnovers (if they even have any).

Green Bay Packers -4 -112 (2 Units)

Jimmy Graham +285 To Score a TD
Davante Adams O6.5 -118 Receptions (2 Units)