NFL SUPER BLITZ - Super Bowl XLI

BlitzBandit

BlitzBandit

Friend of CTG
Okay.. Let’s do this...


Here we are in the biggest game of the season and its almost a crapshoot. Just so I make this clear now, I am going to gun this out with my original thoughts and first instincts. As much as I feel this game could be a toss up and I find good reason to think the Bears can cover, I am not going to go against the Colts. I have found enough reasons to imagine pretty much all possibilities in this one. From a Colts blowout, to a Bears blowout, to a close game going either way. Last year, I was on PIT almost for the entire first week of the two week rest period before the Super Bowl. Then, after looking the game over time and time again, and having influence of others as well, I switched to the Hawks. I paid the price and it bit me in the ass. Well, this time I am not switching, and even if things don’t go my way, at least I know I went with what I felt in my gut... So tail with caution if you must... The odds are against me on this... Colts blowout means I win my bet, but a Bears blowout means I lose, a bears close win means I lose, and even a Colts close win means I lose. On top of all that, top three defenses are 3-0 when facing a top three offense in the Super Bowl... Now with all that aside.. Here I come Colts...

Okay.. So heres what I got:


IND -6.5 vs. CHI

Before I even start getting into things, let’s get to some main points everyone already knows... You know what I mean.. The obvious stuff... Like how the Colts strength is their offense and how the Bears strength is their defense. How pathetic the Colts return coverage is and how they are facing arguably the best return man in the game in Hester. How the coaches are friends and how they use the same defensive scheme. How Vinatieri is arguably the best clutch kicker in the league. How the Colts defense is impacted with Bob Sanders and how the Bears defense is impacted without Tommie Harris. How the Bears defense bends but doesn’t break and how the Colts offense takes whatever it is given... All these things, along with being the obvious, also stand up as good points in capping this game. But there is still much more to this than just the obvious...

With all that being said, let’s get into things... Shall we??..

For starters, it’s true that the Colts offense is ignited by star players like Manning, Wayne, and Harrison and the Bears defense is sparked by their stars as well like Urlacher and Briggs, but the bottom line is the Colts still have weaknesses in their offense and the Bears still have weaknesses in their defense that can both be exploited and taken advantage of by the other. The Bears will definitely be focusing on physically overpowering the Indy O-line... And they do have the ability to do that.. I am sure they will be blitzing at times, but I figure their best bet would be to try to get as much pressure on Manning without having to blitz so much.. That would help keep Manning shaky and the receivers covered at the same time. The Colts will probably be using their audibles, spread formations, and their no-huddle offense to keep the Bears defense on their toes as well as tire them out and try and force mistakes. Like I mentioned before, this offense takes what it is given, so if they can’t run, then they will look for some short passes to the backs or to the tight ends.. And if that is still not working, then you will probably see some short drop and quick passes to the wideouts. I am sure the Colts will take a couple of shots downfield early to get things going, but I doubt they connect from the get go against this defense.. But would not be surprised to see them connect in the third quarter or so when the defense may be a bit more laxed and tired.. Depending on what the score is at the time of course...
 
The Colts usually line up with a single back formation. This allows them to move around the receivers as needed.. Using them wide or in trips formation (with three on one side).. even though Colts hardly use that. This also allows them to use Dallas Clark as a slot receiver which comes in handy when they are looking for that downfield 15 yard pass down the middle play. You know... The one where he has to find a way to get ahead of Urlacher and catch it over his head on the run.. Yea.. I know.. Sounds pretty tough... But the single formation lends itself to alot of basic plays that can help keep the Bears defense honest. When the Colts run the ball, they usually run delays, draws, and stretches... All those can come out of the single formation alignment.

The Colts offensive line was built for pass protection. None of their lineman are big bruisers who can overpower defenders. They are good when it comes to pass blocking and keeping defenders out and away from Manning, but when it comes to pushing and shoving defenders around and making them go backwards to open up gaps.. Well.. Let’s just say they better hope that’s not something they need to rely on against this defense. The purpose of stretch runs is to get the lineman to all slant in one direction and lead the defenders in that direction so that it can build gaps and an opportunity for a cutback from the running back if needed. It gets the linebackers to move laterally which also opens the opportunity for some yards to be gained up field. Left tackle Tarik Glenn and tight end Bryan Fletcher are both great at sealing off the backside of a run. Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes both have the speed and vision to cut against the grain and pick up significant yardage. They can also cut back to the middle behind Jeff Saturday. The Chicago defense is more than qualified to slide down the line and bottle up these stretch runs, but if they over-pursue, the Colts will control this run game and can make them pay.

The Colts running game is built to complement and support their passing attack, so delays and draws are a big part of their gameplan. When they are in hurry-up mode, they'll use shotgun draw plays to keep linebackers and safeties from blitzing or dropping immediately into coverage. Both Colts backs are good at bursting through the line of scrimmage, making a cut, and then taking what the defense offers. Manning and the Colts linemen disguise draw plays well, so defenders can’t pick things up by reading the offensive line.

The Bears will be using more five-man fronts than the Colts are used to seeing in order to slow their running game. When other teams face the Colts, they usually keep their linebackers deep to help with pass coverage, but Lovie Smith often places Hunter Hillenmeyer at the line of scrimmage. The presence of an extra linebacker will help seal the back side and will limit the amount of combo blocking the Colts can do on stretch runs. The Bears linebackers are extremely great at reading the plays and should be able to avoid blocks and shoot the gaps that open up off those stretch runs. They are fast and can close in making a possible 5 yard gain into a one yard gain or even a loss. Briggs, Hillenmeyer, and Urlacher will not play back on their heels against the Colts the way most opponsents do. So the Colts need to change up the scheme and get the linebackers out of the box. In order to do that, they need to use more spread formations.

Marvin Harrison has not played well in these playoffs. He has dropped some of Manning's best passes and the only times Manning looked bad against New England were on the plays when he looked like he was forcing the ball to him. With just 10 catches for 134 yards in three playoff games, Harrison hasn't been a particularly important part of the Colts' offense. Dallas Clark has more than made up for Harrison's problems, though.
Clark is the Colts' leading receiver in catches (17) yards (281) and yards per catch (16.5) in this year's playoffs. He is listed as a tight end, but the Colts really use him more like a slot receiver... the true tight ends are Fletcher and Utecht, both of whom are role players in the passing game. There are not many linebackers that can cover Clark when he runs over the middle or when they are single covering him. Manning usually takes advantage of the mismatch. Against the Bears, however, there won’t be a mismatch. Urlacher and Briggs are two of the best coverage linebackers in the league, and Clark can't outrun them the way he outran New England's linebackers in the AFC Championship. If Manning is looking for a mismatch, he may be better off looking to wide receiver Reggie Wayne. Lovie Smith doesn't believe in adjusting his coverage for any one wide receiver, a philosophy that certainly has its advantages because Chicago cornerbacks Nathan Vasher and Charles Tillman know what they need to do and will not be bogged down with complicated in-game adjustments... But this philosophy also has some disadvantages...

Those disadvantages were seen most clearly in last year's playoff loss to the Carolina Panthers when Steve Smith was simply too quick for Chicago's secondary and the Bears never changed anything to give their cornerbacks (usually Tillman) help with him. Wayne is the fastest of the Colts' receivers, and if they don't have a better answer for Wayne this year than they had for Smith last year, it'll be a long day for Chicago.
 
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Manning delivers the ball so quickly that it is nearly impossible to sack him, which is why he was not sacked often this year. When teams blitz, he usually delivers the ball to his hot read and makes them pay. But the Bears may give Manning problems anyway. They have three speedy defensive ends in Alex Brown, Adewale Ogunleye and Mark Anderson. Smith likes to take advantage of that speed by dropping their defensive ends into coverage. We all know how smart Manning is and how prepared he gets himself studying for games, but when you have a linebacker like Briggs coming in on a blitz and then you have the defensive ends dropping back into coverage when you expect them to rush in, that is something that will throw any quarterback off. When a linebacker comes and makes it seem like the tight end will be up for a quick pass, then after the snap, the defensive end drops back with him, then suddenly, a play that looked like it was going to be smooth suddenly turns hectic...


On the other side of the ball, there is no doubt that the Colts use a basic and simple defense, but that does not at all mean it is predictable or easy to defend. They use mostly four-man fronts, they always keep at least one safety deep, and they rarely blitz. And even though most of their plays are based off the Cover-2, they still use a variety of man and zone coverage schemes that are hard to read at the snap, and their line stunts and twists can break down pass protection without the need for constant blitzing. But don’t get me wrong.. They are still just an above average defense... But in their favor, they are facing just an above average offense that usually comes out of the I-Formation. This defense will try to stop the run and sit back and force the game into Grossmans’ hands. If that happens, they will also be lurking around in hopes of jumping in front of one of his mistakes. If Grossman plays the way he did early in the season, when the Bears were blowing everybody out, there's every reason to think the Bears can pull off the upset. If he plays like he did later in the year, when he had five games of three or more interceptions, the Bears' defense won't be able to bail him out. Grossman isn't the Bears' best player, but he is definitely a key one.

When it comes to Special teams, it is easy to say that Hester will score on this poor Colts special team coverage and that he will change this game and that blah, blah, blah... I’m sure the list goes on. The way I see things, touchdown returns are not easy to come by.. Period. Even as great as Hester is, he returned 6 in 18 games this year... So the odds are, it won’t happen. He is definitely tops in the league and a threat from anywhere in the field, but he can’t be counted on to be a factor as to the result of this game. I am NOT saying he cannot contribute by scoring a td or even getting some good field position for the Bears a couple of times, but realistically, his chances of scoring would not be as good as him not scoring. Touchdown returns are still a bitch to do.

Yet, people still talk about how he will return one. It reminds me of how people were talking about Randal El returning one last year... they just don't seem to understand that 6 tds in a 16 game season where some teams don't see you coming is hard enough.. much less to do it when you are being considered a threat and being keyed on.

In the last 5 games, Hester has had 8 fumbles... yes.. 8... and he had a fumble in all of them except one, which was last week against NO, and in those 5 games, he has had no td returns. In fact, in the last 4 games, he has not had a return (kick or punt) for over 25 yards. His punt return average has been horrible in those games averaging probably less than 2 yards per return. He was the only one who returned anything against the Saints, but against the Seahawks, Gabe Reid had one return and it was for 20 yards, which matched Hesters' longest return for the day. The week before against GB, Rashied Davis had less returns (2) than Hester (4) on kickoffs for the Bears, but Davis had a better average and the longest run of the day there too... and Berrian outdid him in punt returns as well that day. Against Detroit, Davis matched him again in average and beat him again with the longest return for the day. Davis had more returns than Hester that time. Those were the last four games in a nutshell. Hester is most definitely a threat and CAN be a factor to making a difference, but he should not be COUNTED on to be a factor or to make a major difference. Even though I think Special teams is crucial to the game and can play a big factor to the outcome of it, it is not something that should be considered a major factor when capping these things.

Statistically, The Colts allowed the fewest number of sacks in the league and they converted 56 percent of third-down opportunities (no other team converted more than 50 percent.. in fact, only one other team converted more than 45 percent). The Colts rarely move their wide receivers around, with Reggie Wayne on the left side and Marvin Harrison on the right. The Bears rarely move their cornerbacks around, with Nathan Vasher on the (offensive) left side and Charles Tillman on the right. Wayne and Harrison were equal partners during the regular season, but the same can’t be said for Vasher and Tillman. According to the FO game chart, opposing quarterbacks throw at Tillman nearly twice as often as they throw at Vasher. In fact, though the data is not complete, more passes have gone at Tillman than any other defender in the league in 2006. Lest you think this is a one-year phenomenon, last year Tillman was thrown at 50 percent more often than Vasher, and was second in the league in pass targets behind Ike Taylor. If Manning follows this same pattern, there are going to be a lot of passes to Harrison. That means that Harrison has to break out of his playoff funk.

The Bears defense have actually been better on first down, but the defense has declined in nearly every other situation. The biggest collapse comes in the most important situations... third down and the red zone. In Weeks 1-13, the Bears defense faced 73 plays inside the red zone, and only allowed touchdowns on 11 of them, with three takeaways. Since Week 14, the Bears defense has faced 39 plays inside the red zone, and allowed touchdowns on 13 of them, with zero takeaways. Another Chicago weakness, even before the Harris injury, has been defending passes to the oppositions’ number one receiver. If your best receiver can find the holes in the Cover-2 zone, you can rack up a lot of nice medium-sized gains. If you go deep on the safeties, the weakness of the defense since Mike Brown was injured early in the year, you can get a few big plays too. The Bears ranked 21st in DVOA on passes to number one receivers. But in the playoffs, the Bears have held the opposition’s top receiver in check. Together, Darrell Jackson and Marques Colston caught 9 passes out of 23 for 111 yards. (Obviously, Colston’s drops did contribute to this success).

Well, to sum up, I can’t say for sure if good Grossman or bad Grossman will show up, and I also can’t say Chicago’s defense doesn’t step things up... But I will say that in the end, I believe Manning and the Colts will have more than 7 pts on the scoreboard than Chicago will..



Good luck to all.
 
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Nice smooth read. Not that it makes a huge difference but I am hearing that Indy willplay the cover 3 mostly. Keeping Sanders much closer to the line...
 
SportsNut said:
Nice smooth read. Not that it makes a huge difference but I am hearing that Indy willplay the cover 3 mostly. Keeping Sanders much closer to the line...
Click to expand...


hmm.. interesting.. where did you hear that??..

actually, if they do, it may actually help some having a safety sliding down into the flats occasionally.. since the Bears are more of a run/short pass type team.. probably the more closer to the line they are, the better... although if Rex tries to get cute with Berrian, then it can be risky for the Colts to be getting tricky right now....

I'm thinking their thoughts would be to go all out on stopping the Bears run if they do this.. but still.. interesting.
 
Heard it two places cant recall the first but the second was the Michael Kay show on ESPN. He was pro-Bears and that was something he mentioned. How Sanders was gonna be close to the line and tempt Grossman to hit those big plays with man coverage. Kay said it was widely known I certainly cant verify that. Just what I heard on ESPN radio.

Somebody else made a point I liked how scary it was safety was the key in the indy run defense. Which I never even looked at it this way but its certainly a good point.

I have heard alot of the NFL guys especially QBs defend Rex. Simms said he likened the BS Grossman was going through to his 1st Bowl. Saying people forgot he threw more picks then Ints during the season. Marino defended him saying he has hit a couple of big passes in the playoff games.

Truthfully I thinks odd everyone worries about Grossman and INTs and he has one to Mannings 7. The sacks well maybe only 9 during the season but isnt 7 in three games more telling? Since its the playoffs and it shows quality teams are getting to him??

I think this game in alot ways can be simplified to how effective the Bears offense in keeping the ball away from peyton and pointing some points on the board versus the ability to pressure Manning. The less time he has clearly the more ineffective he is to the point he is play is nite and day. Really everything starts at this point and trickles down...

Cant wait...
 
I agree..

people don't normally think of safeties having anything to do with the running game.. but it can be a big affect on it...

I am sure the Bears staying on offense and playing keep away from Manning is one of their main goals... in fact, it pretty much has been every teams' goal against him this season... but it's the execution of things that usually makes things go sour...

obviously, if Indy keeps the Bears running game from taking control, then no.. I don't think Rex can do this by himself... and I am sure he is getting alot of trash and BS thrown his way, but most for legit reasons... I mean.. nobody talks the same BS about Peyton.. or Brady.. but yea.. I agree with the interception factor these playoffs and how the quality teams are playing him now.. but could it be that KC, BAL, and NE have better defenses than SEA and NO??.. just a thought... don't get me wrong.. CHI is still facing nothing great against Indy's defense and Indy is facing yet another tough one... but just giving probable reasoning on those int's...

It should be a good one no doubt.
 
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abcs said:
go to yahoo.com and check out thomas jones on south beach
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Click to expand...


haha.. good shit... if you are into that.. but there are others who consider other things like quarterbacks that are 6 ft tall... 180 lbs... laser rocket arms.. like Peyton Manning.. haha..
 
Nice write up !!! On colts also,

1) Media seems to be over glamourizing the Chicago Defense. Last couple games, I think the defenses have been fairly equal and Chicago has been at home. They get all the attention because they survive off of blitzes and creating turnovers but I don't see Addai or Peyton turning the ball over too much. Addai was trained at LSU under Saban and to this day, he holds that ball with both arms. I don't see Peyton trying to "force" too much knowing how average that Chicago offense is.

2) If Chicago expects to match scores with Indy, they are going to need to open it up and that can get risky. Grossman is capable of the long ball but all the pressure is on him.

GOOD LUCK !
 
radiclese said:
Nice write up !!! On colts also,


2) If Chicago expects to match scores with Indy, they are going to need to open it up and that can get risky. Grossman is capable of the long ball but all the pressure is on him.

GOOD LUCK !
Click to expand...

well, that's the thing about the Tampa-2 defense.. which both teams run..

In a traditional Cover-3 scheme, it is very difficult to cover 4 receivers. In Cover-2, however, you can do this by having the corners trail their respective outside receivers, the 2 safeties split between the 2 WRs to their side, and the MLB taking the gap right up the middle caused by the diverging safeties. This forces, at least theoretically, opportunities to make a play on any deep ball. It’s not a very difficult defense to run in terms of scheme (at least with regards to the secondary), but it does require speed and the MLB needs to be an absolute monster... advantage Bears.

In terms of the run game, in a lot of C-2 schemes, the corners become outside run containment. If they read run, they should get involved. So in theory you do have 9 true run defenders. That definitely helps in slowing the run game but also allows some passes downfield... if you have the personnel to do it that is... unfortunately, it also causes more plays on the field and more time off the clock without your offense in the game. Thats the bend but don't break thing.. which is also why Indy has kinda been known for allowing alot but not really giving up the BIG plays.

The Colts problem is that they really don’t have the exceptional personnel to run the defense. They have the speed, but other than Sanders in the back 7 they don’t have any other playmakers. Their LBs frankly stink for this.

I can see Rex moving the ball well, but I don't really think he will get away too much deep stuff... see how things go though..

thanks and gl bud.
 
I'm also leaning 'under'.. but not sure yet.. I would not be surprised to see Indy hit 30 pts.. like I said.. I can imagine all possible outcomes in this one...

But I honestly think the first half will be mostly defenses... maybe Indy hits something deep in the 2nd quarter or so... either way, I think by the 3rd and 4th quarters, Indy will have already found the weak spots and the ability to move the ball at will...

I also think the NO turnovers helped CHI defense look better than they did against SEA.. take those four turnovers away, and they were just above average and momentum swings would not have helped as much.. I just don't think the Colts offense will fall for the same stuff... and yes.. even though Harrison has been pretty bad these playoffs, I think he will have the big game here and maybe a shot at that SB MVP honors.
 
Blitz, great write up and Im glad to see us on the same side this year. For what its worth, I'm pretty confident in this one. Lets gettem :shake:
 
Flounderblitz? Hahaha! Great write-up. Great angle. Great pick.

No doubt, Indy has faced the best defenses in the NFL, and beat 'em. Chicago hasn't seen any offenses as good as the Colts.
We should see plenty of jocks layin' on the field.

Time for the last dance. Let's do it!!
 
It only seems proper to end the season with the biggest "Great White Underwater Blitz" of all time. Congrats bud. Very nice. :cheers:
 
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